UNLOCKED: Line Matching – October 11th

Updated: October 11, 2018 at 4:37 pm by Brock Seguin

Line Matching will typically be posted in the early afternoon (EST) once most teams have wrapped up their morning skates. Line Matching for afternoon games (on weekends) will be posted in the morning prior to puck-drop.

This post looks at which teams will have an advantage at 5v5. It looks at which lines the home-team will try and match-up against and which line could have an edge. It does not take power-play or goaltending into consideration. 

STATS

  • All totals are per 60 minutes of 5v5 ice time.
  • SCF/SCA- Scoring chances for and against
  • CF/CA – Corsi for and against
  • HDCF/HDCA – High-danger Chances for and against

Matchups

  • Which lines the Home team is expected to be matched up against.

Index

1️⃣ – Indicates PP1 Usage
2️⃣ – Indicates PP2 Usage


San Jose Sharks @ New York Rangers

  Favourite Home Coaching Strategy
SJS2 NYR1
SJS2
Not a hard match
LW T. Hertl 1️⃣ LW J. Vesey
C L. Couture 1️⃣ C K. Hayes 2️⃣
RW T. Meier 2️⃣ RW R. Spooner 2️⃣
Sample: 765:51 TOI (Hertl & Couture) Sample: 165:52 TOI
OFF: 63 CF, 28 SCF, 11 HDCF OFF: 45 CF, 23 SCF, 11 HDCF
DEF: 60 CA, 26 SCA, 11 HDCA DEF: 73 CA, 34 SCA, 16 HDCA
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SJS1 NYR2
SJS1
Not a hard match
LW E. Kane 2️⃣ LW P. Buchnevich 1️⃣
C J. Pavelski 1️⃣ C M. Zibanejad 1️⃣
RW K. Labanc 2️⃣ RW J. Fast
Sample: 226:09 TOI (Pavelski & Kane) Sample: 155:24 TOI (Zibanejad & Buchnevich w/o Kreider)
OFF: 68 CF, 36 SCF, 18 HDCF OFF: 55 CF, 24 SCF, 11 HDCF
DEF: 53 CA, 22 SCA, 7 HDCA DEF: 68 CA, 32 SCA, 14 HDCA
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SJS3 NYR3
N/A
Not a hard match
LW M. Sorensen LW C. Kreider 1️⃣
C A. Suomela C B. Howden 2️⃣
RW J. Donskoi 2️⃣ RW M. Zuccarello 1️⃣
Sample: No Sample-Suomela and Donskoi have very strong numbers this year but that was all with Kane Sample: 73:22 TOI (Kreider & Zuccarello)
OFF: N/A OFF: 47 CF, 20 SCF, 9 HDCF
DEF: N/A DEF: 70 CA, 39 SCA, 18 HDCA

Analysis: New Rangers’ head coach Dan Quinn continues to make one peculiar decision after another. After already scratching Vladislav Namestnikov for a game, Kevin Shattenkirk will be a healthy scratch tonight. He also made the decision to dismantle the Rangers’ top line of Buchnevich, Zibanejad, and Kreider. Buchnevich and Zibanejad are much worse away from Kreider, and vice-versa. The Sharks’ top-six should dominate at even strength tonight.

Colorado Avalanche @ Buffalo Sabres

  Favourite Home Coaching Strategy
COL1 BUF1
COL1
Not a hard match
LW G. Landeskog 1️⃣ LW C. Sheary 2️⃣
C N. MacKinnon 1️⃣ C J. Eichel 1️⃣
RW M. Rantanen 1️⃣ RW S. Reinhart 1️⃣
Sample: 742:30 TOI Sample: 236:22 TOI (Eichel & Reinhart)
OFF: 63 CF, 31 SCF, 12 HDCF OFF: 54 CF, 24 SCF, 11 HDCF
DEF: 60 CA, 27 SCA, 10 HDCA DEF: 55 CA, 24 SCA, 11HDCA
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COL2 BUF2
N/A
Not a hard match
LW A. Kerfoot 2️⃣ LW J. Skinner 2️⃣
C T. Jost 1️⃣ C P. Berglund
RW C. Wilson 2️⃣ RW K. Okposo 1️⃣
Sample: 241:07 TOI (Jost & Kerfoot) Sample: No Sample-Berglund and Skinner are both new to the team
OFF: 54 CF, 25 SCF, 7 HDCF OFF: N/A
DEF: 65 CF, 31 SCA, 12 HDCA DEF: N/A
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COL3 BUF3
N/A
Not a hard match
LW M. Nieto LW R. Elie
C C. Soderberg 2️⃣ C C. Mittelstadt 1️⃣
RW G. Bourque RW T. Thompson 2️⃣
Sample: 687:10 TOI (Soderberg & Nieto) Sample: No Sample-Mittelstadt is a rookie and Thompson is new to the team
OFF: 53 CF, 22 SCF, 8 HDCF OFF: N/A
DEF: 63 CA, 27 SCA, 10 HDCA DEF: N/A

Analysis: The Sabres’ line-matching has varied from game to game this year, but the Eichel line has been seeing the majority of the ice time against the opposing first line. The Mackinnon line is easily favoured in this matchup, even on the road. The lack of samples to work with for Buffalo 2 and 3 means Colorado 1 is the only line worth stacking in this one. As per usual, Eichel still makes for a strong one-off/cash play.

Vegas Golden Knights @ Pittsburgh Penguins

Favourite Home Coaching Strategy
VGK1 PIT1
PIT1 vs VGK1: Even, High-Event
PIT1 split 50/50 against VGK1/VGK2
LW J. Marchessault 1️⃣ LW J. Guentzel 2️⃣
C W. Karlsson 1️⃣ C S. Crosby 1️⃣
RW R. Smith 1️⃣ RW P. Hornqvist 1️⃣
Sample: 708:33 TOI Sample: 98:43 TOI (All 3)
PIT1 vs VGK2: Even, High-Event
OFF: 62 CF, 31 SCF, 12 HDCF OFF: 74 CF, 38 SCF, 15 HDCF
DEF: 50 CA, 24 SCA, 9 HDCA DEF: 55 CA, 38 SCA, 9 HDCA
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VGK2 PIT2
PIT2 vs VGK2: Even
PIT2 split 50/50 against VGK2/VGK1
LW M. Pacioretty 2️⃣ LW C. Hagelin
C E. Haula 2️⃣ C E. Malkin 1️⃣
RW T. Nosek 1️⃣ RW P. Kessel 1️⃣
Sample: 51:46 TOI (Pacioretty & Haula) Sample: 578:31 TOI (Malkin & Kessel)
PIT2 vs VGK1: Slight VGK1
OFF: 75 CF, 38 SCF, 14 HDCF OFF: 62 CF, 28 SCF, 11 HDCF
DEF: 44 CA, 20 SCA, 11 HDCA DEF: 58 CA, 29 SCA, 14 HDCA
➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖
VGK3 PIT3
Even
Not a hard match
LW R. Carpenter 2️⃣ LW D. Simon
C C. Eakin C D. Brassard 2️⃣
RW O. Lindberg RW B. Rust
Sample: 184:45 TOI (Eakin & Carpenter) Sample: 58:51 TOI (Simon & Rust)
OFF: 59 CF, 27 SCF, 9 HDCF OFF: 69 CF, 32 SCF, 12 HDCF
DEF: 56 CA, 23 SCA, 10 HDCA DEF: 52 CA, 35 SCA, 16 HDCA

Analysis: Pittsburgh 1 should trade chances at even strength against the likes of Vegas 1 and 2. They should push the pace of play and turn this one into a high-event affair. Given the skill in Pittsburgh’s top-six, you expect them to convert on a greater percentage of chances. Both lines are viable stacks tonight especially when you consider Vegas is travelling on a back-to-back.

Edmonton Oilers @ Boston Bruins

    Favourite Home Coaching Strategy
EDM1 BOS1
BOS1, High-Event
Hard match
LW R. Nugent-Hopkins 1️⃣ LW B. Marchand 1️⃣
C C. McDavid 1️⃣ C P. Bergeron 1️⃣
RW T. Rattie 2️⃣ RW D. Pastrnak 1️⃣
Sample: 128:49 TOI Sample: 535:54 TOI
OFF: 60 CF, 33 SCF, 17 HDCF OFF: 67 CF, 33 SCF, 12 HDCF
DEF: 60 CA, 35 SCA, 17 HDCA DEF: 47 CA, 24 SCA, 12 HDCA
➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖
EDM3 BOS2
BOS2 vs EDM3: BOS2
BOS2 split 60/40 against EDM3/EDM2
LW T. Reider LW J. DeBrusk 2️⃣
C R. Strome 2️⃣ C D. Krejci 2️⃣
RW Z. Kassian RW J. Nordstrom
Sample: 68:55 TOI (Strome & Kassian) Sample: 579:52 TOI (DeBrusk & Krejci)
BOS2 vs EDM2: Slight BOS2
OFF: 51 CF, 23 SCF, 6 HDCF OFF: 61 CF, 29 SCF, 9 HDCF
DEF: 76 CA, 41 SCA, 15 HDCA DEF: 51 CA, 22 SCA, 9 HDCA
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EDM2 BOS3
BOS3 vs EDM2: Slight BOS2
BOS3 split 60/40 against EDM2/EDM3
LW M. Lucic 2️⃣ LW D. Heinen 2️⃣
C L. Draisaitl 1️⃣ C D. Backes 2️⃣
RW K. Yamamoto RW A. Bjork 1️⃣
Sample: 180:25 TOI (Draisaitl & Lucic w/o McDavid) Sample: 438:58 TOI (Backes & Heinen)
BOS3 vs EDM3: Slight BOS3, low-event
OFF: 57 CF, 30 SCF, 11 HDCF OFF: 62 CF, 27 SCF, 9 HDCF
DEF: 58 CA, 29 SCA, 13 HDCA DEF: 49 CA, 21 SCA, 8 HDCA

Analysis: Boston 1 should see the lion’s share of the chances in this hard match, but it should be high-event, making McDavid and company a viable play in their own right. Edmonton 2 should have a hard time at even strength tonight, so it’s best to only use Draisaitl in powerplay stacks. Boston 1 is a solid high-priced target tonight while both Boston 2 and 3 have value-stack appeal.

Washington Capitals @ New Jersey Devils

Favourite Home Coaching Strategy
WSH1 NJD1
Even, High-Event
Not a hard match
LW A. Ovechkin 1️⃣ LW T. Hall 1️⃣
C E. Kuznetsov 1️⃣ C N. Hischier 1️⃣
RW B. Conolly 2️⃣ RW K. Palmieri 1️⃣
Sample: 557:00 TOI (Ovechkin & Kuznetsov) Sample: 290:25 TOI
OFF: 59 CF, 30 SCF, 13 HDCF OFF: 64 CF, 28 SCF, 14 HDCF
DEF: 62 CA, 30 SCA, 15 HDCA DEF: 58 CA, 30 SCA, 13 HDCA
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WSH2 NJD2
Slight WSH2
Not a hard match
LW J. Vrana 2️⃣ LW M. Johansson 2️⃣
C N. Backstrom 1️⃣ C P. Zacha 2️⃣
RW T. Oshie 1️⃣ RW S. Noesen 2️⃣
Sample: 71:13 TOI Sample: 60:37 TOI (Zacha & Johansson)
OFF: 57 CF, 30 SCF, 11 HDCF OFF: 62 CF, 33 SCF, 12 HDCF
DEF: 53 CA, 20 SCA, 7 HDCA DEF: 58 CA, 28 SCA, 11 HDCA
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WSH3 NJD3
NJD3
Not a hard match
LW A. Burakovsky LW M. Wood
C L. Eller 2️⃣ C T. Zajac 1️⃣
RW C. Stephenson RW J. Quenneville
Sample: 297:00 TOI (Eller & Burakovsky) Sample: 89:04 TOI (Wood & Zajac)
OFF: 58 CF, 27 SCF, 8 HDCF OFF: 63 CF, 30 SCF, 16 HDCF
DEF: 61 CA, 30 SCA, 15 HDCF DEF: 54 CA, 18 SCA, 7 HDCA

Analysis: As good as Washington has been this year, you have to give a slight advantage to New Jersey 1 at even strength. The Capitals are travelling on a back-to-back, so a would-be even matchup gets titled ever so slightly. It should be high-event, so the Ovechkin line is still in play tonight. Washington 2 should be challenged by New Jersey’s second line, which is chalk-full of reasonable punt options. The Zajac line gets the nod over Washington 3 but shouldn’t see enough ice time to make it matter.

Columbus Blue Jackets @ Florida Panthers

    Favourite Home Coaching Strategy
CBJ1 FLA1
Even, High-Event
Hard match
LW A. Panarin 1️⃣ LW E. Dadonov 1️⃣
C P-L. Dubois 1️⃣ C A. Barkov 1️⃣
RW C. Atkinson 2️⃣ RW N. Bjugstad 2️⃣
Sample: 350:52 TOI Sample: 375:52 TOI
OFF: 69 CF, 36 SCF, 14 HDCF OFF: 69 CF, 37 SCF, 15 HDCF
DEF: 55 CA, 27 SCA, 12 HDCA DEF: 55 CA, 25 SCA, 12 HDCA
➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖
CBJ2 FLA2
Even
Not a hard match
LW N. Foligno 1️⃣ LW J. Huberdeau 1️⃣
C A. Wennberg 2️⃣ C V. Trochek 1️⃣
RW A. Duclair 1️⃣ RW M. Hoffman 1️⃣
Sample: 230:13 TOI (Foligno & Wennberg) Sample: 527:25 TOI (Trochek & Huberdeau)
OFF: 64 CF, 27 SCF, 11 HDCF OFF: 64 CF, 30 SCF, 10 HDCF
DEF: 52 CA, 23 SCA, 11 HDCA DEF: 64 CA, 31 SCA, 11 HDCA
➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖
CBJ3 FLA3
FLA3
Not a hard match
LW B. Jenner 2️⃣ LW F. Vatrano 2️⃣
C R. Nash C J. McCann
RW J. Anderson RW D. Malgin 2️⃣
Sample: 152:25 TOI (Jenner & Anderson) Sample: 90:48 TOI (Malgin & McCann)
OFF: 64 CF, 30 SCF, 13 HDCF OFF: 59 CF, 31 SCF, 10 HDCF
DEF: 67 CA, 30 SCA, 13 HDCA DEF: 55 CA, 21 SCA, 5 HDCA

Analysis: Another high-paced, high-event matchup that’s playable from both sides. Columbus 1’s stock drops with Atkinson being dumped from the top powerplay unit. Florida is once again opting to run their best five forwards on their first powerplay, giving some added appeal to their top-six tonight. Neither third line is worth consideration.

Toronto Maple Leafs @ Detroit Red Wings

  Favourite Home Coaching Strategy
TOR1 DET1
Slight TOR1, High-Event
Not a hard match
LW P. Marleau 2️⃣ LW J. Abdelkader
C A. Matthews 1️⃣ C D. Larkin 1️⃣
RW K. Kapanen RW A. Mantha 2️⃣
Sample: 56:45 TOI (Matthews & Marleau) Sample: 472:40 TOI (Larkin & Mantha)
OFF: 68 CF, 39 SCF, 15 HDCF OFF: 60 CF, 26 SCF, 10 HDCF
DEF: 83 CA, 46 SCA, 19 HDCA DEF: 55 CA, 28 SCA, 12 HDCA
➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖
TOR2 DET2
TOR2
Not a hard match
LW Z. Hyman LW G. Nyquist 1️⃣
C J. Tavares 1️⃣ C A. Athanasiou 2️⃣
RW M. Marner 1️⃣ RW T. Vanek 2️⃣
Sample: 51:46 TOI Sample: 35:37 TOI (Athanasiou & Vanek)
OFF: 79 CF, 46 SCF, 15 HDCF OFF: 48 CF, 27 SCF, 12 HDCF
DEF: 67 CA, 27 SCA, 12 HDCA DEF: 82 CA, 46 SCA, 22 HDCA
➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖
TOR3 DET3
TOR3
Not a hard match
LW P. Lindholm LW T. Bertuzzi 1️⃣
C N. Kadri 1️⃣ C F. Nielsen 2️⃣
RW C. Brown 2️⃣ RW M. Rasmussen 1️⃣
Sample: 42:52 TOI (Brown & Kadri) Sample: 57:55 (Bertuzzi & Nielsen)
OFF: 59 CF, 30 SCF, 11 HDCF OFF: 54 CF, 24 SCF, 8 HDCF
DEF: 57 CA, 29 SCA, 10 HDCA DEF: 60 CA, 31 SCA, 7 HDCA

Analysis: Both of Toronto 1 and 2 are premier options tonight. Line matching will be more fluid than usual for the Red Wings in this one. Abdelkader usually plays on the fourth line, which would normally see a sizable amount of time against the opposing first line. We’re assuming with Abdelkader’s move that all of that responsibility now gets shifted to the first line. Still, the balanced nature of the Maple Leafs’ attack likely means that Toronto 1 and 2 will see a variety of matchups tonight. They both win across the board, but the numbers from the Tavares line have been outstanding to start the season. A Toronto powerplay stack has been made near-impossible to fit in one lineup, so you’ll probably have to choose between the top two lines.

Los Angeles Kings @ Montreal Canadiens

    Favourite Home Coaching Strategy
LAK1 MTL1
Slight MTL1
Not a hard match
LW A. Iafallo LW T. Tatar 1️⃣
C A. Kopitar 1️⃣ C P. Danault
RW I. Kovalchuk 1️⃣ RW B. Gallagher 1️⃣
Sample: 806:58 TOI (Kopitar & Iafallo) Sample: 57:38 TOI (Danault & Gallagher)
OFF: 57 CF, 26 SCF, 11 HDCF OFF: 84 CF, 36 SCF, 17 HDCF
DEF: 52 CA, 25 SCA, 11 HDCA DEF: 59 CA, 31 SCA, 17 HDCA
➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖
LAK2 MTL2
MTL2
Not a hard match
LW T. Pearson 2️⃣ LW P. Byron
C A. Kempe 1️⃣ C M. Domi 2️⃣
RW T. Toffoli 2️⃣ RW A. Lehkonen
Sample: 264:34 TOI Sample: 97:04 TOI (Byron & Lehkonen)
OFF: 64 CF, 25 SCF, 9 HDCF OFF: 64 CF, 33 SCF, 16 HDCF
DEF: 58 CA, 30 SCA, 13 HDCA DEF: 59 CA, 27 SCA, 12 HDCA
➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖
LAK3 MTL3
N/A
Not a hard match
LW J. Anderson-Dolan LW J. Drouin 1️⃣
C J. Carter 1️⃣ C J. Kotkaniemi 2️⃣
RW M. Amadio 2️⃣ RW J. Armia 1️⃣
Sample: 85:49 TOI (Carter w/o Pearson & Toffoli last year) Sample: No sample-Kotkaniemi is a rookie and Armia is new to the team
OFF: 54 CF, 26 SCF, 9 HDCF OFF: N/A
DEF: 62 CA, 28 SCA, 8 HDCA DEF: N/A

Analysis:

Danault and Gallagher’s combined numbers from this season and last suggest they should have a slight advantage at even strength tonight. While the sample size is still too small to use, it’s worth noting that the Kopitar line has struggled at 5v5 to start the season. It’s still very early, but Kopitar and Iafallo’s numbers are much weaker with Kovalchuk than they were with the injured Dustin Brown. It’s a risky play, but Montreal 2 should get some opportunities against Los Angeles 2. Pearson and Toffoli are much worse away from Jeff Carter.

Vancouver Canucks @ Tampa Bay Lightning

Favourite Home Coaching Strategy
VAN2 TBL1
TBL1 vs VAN2: N/A
TBL1 split 60/40 against VAN2/VAN3
LW N. Goldobin 2️⃣ LW O. Palat 2️⃣
C E. Pettersson 1️⃣ C S. Stamkos 1️⃣
RW L. Eriksson 2️⃣ RW N. Kucherov 1️⃣
TBL1 vs VAN3: TBL1
Sample: No Sample-Pettersson is a rookie, Goldobin and Eriksson played less than 20 mins together last year Sample: 779:19 TOI (Kucherov & Stamkos)
OFF: N/A OFF: 67 CF, 31 SCF, 11 HDCF
DEF: N/A DEF: 58 CA, 29 SCA, 11 HDCA
➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖
VAN1 TBL2
TBL2
Not a hard match
LW T. Motte LW T. Johnson
C B. Horvat 1️⃣ C B. Point 1️⃣
RW B. Boeser 1️⃣ RW Y. Gourde 2️⃣
Sample: 457:04 TOI (Horvat & Boeser) Sample: 80:04 TOI
OFF: 58 CF, 29 SCF, 11 HDCF OFF: 80 CF, 41 SCF, 20 HDCF
DEF: 59 CA, 30 SCA, 10 HDCA DEF: 60 CA, 31 SCA, 14 HDCA
➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖
VAN3 TBL3
TBL3 vs VAN3: TBL3
LW S. Baertschi 1️⃣ LW A. Killorn 2️⃣
C B. Sutter C A. Cirelli
RW J. Virtanen 2️⃣ RW M. Joseph 2️⃣
Sample: 92:34 (Sutter & Virtanen) Sample: 143:16 TOI (Killorn & Cirelli)
TBL3 vs VAN2: N/A
OFF: 54 CF, 22 SCF, 3 HDCF OFF: 63 CF, 26 SCF, 11 HDCF
DEF: 67 CA, 33 SCA, 12 HDCA DEF: 46 CA, 22 SCA, 7 HDCA

Analysis:

The sample is too small to use but the returns have been positive so far for the Pettersson line. While they might be able to push back offensively a fair amount, they don’t have the makeup to contain Stamkos and Kucherov. Tampa Bay 1 against Vancouver 3 is one of the biggest mismatches of the night, so look for Tampa Bay’s heavy hitters to go to work whenever they see time against Sutter. Tampa Bay 2 holds a solid advantage over Horvat and Boeser.

Winnipeg Jets @ Nashville Predators

Favourite Home Coaching Strategy
WPG1 NSH1
NSH1 vs WPG1: Even
Top-9 vs Top-9
LW K. Connor 1️⃣ LW F. Forsberg 1️⃣
C M. Scheifele 1️⃣ C R. Johansen 1️⃣
RW B. Wheeler 1️⃣ RW V. Arvidsson 1️⃣
NSH1 vs WPG2: Even
Sample: 611:10 TOI Sample: 518:51 TOI
OFF: 59 CF, 29 SCF, 12 HDCF OFF: 68 CF, 28 SCF, 11 HDCF
NSH1 vs WPG3: NSH1
DEF: 57 CA, 26 SCA, 9 HDCA DEF: 54 CA, 27 SCA, 12 HDCA
➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖
WPG2 NSH2
NSH2 vs WPG1: NSH2
Top-9 vs Top-9
LW N. Ehlers 2️⃣ LW K. Fiala 2️⃣
C B. Little 2️⃣ C K. Turris 2️⃣
RW P. Laine 1️⃣ RW C. Smith 1️⃣
NSH2 vs WPG2: NSH2
Sample: 340:09 TOI Sample: 544:52 TOI
OFF: 55 CF, 24 SCF, 8 HDCF OFF: 74 CF, 34 SCF, 14 HDCF
NSH2 vs WPG3: NSH2
DEF: 56 CA, 23 SCA, 9 HDCA DEF: 52 CA, 23 SCA, 10 HDCA
➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖
WPG3 NSH3
NSH3 vs WPG1: WPG1
Top-9 vs Top-9
LW K. Vesalainen LW C. Jarnkrok
C J. Roslovic 2️⃣ C N. Bonino 2️⃣
RW M. Perreault 2️⃣ RW R. Hartman
NSH3 vs WPG2: Even
Sample: 156:01 TOI (Roslovic & Perreault) Sample: 271:08 TOI (Jarnkrok & Bonino)
OFF: 53 CF, 22 SCF, 6 HDCF OFF: 62 CF, 25 SCF, 10 HDCF
NSH3 vs WPG3: NSH3
DEF: 63 CA, 25 SCA, 11 HDCA DEF: 55 CA, 22 SCA, 9 HDCA

Analysis:

These are two dominant 5v5 teams going head to head. Don’t expect a ton of opportunities at even strength. Nashville 2 has the strongest matchups on paper but they’ve struggled to convert on their chances so far this season. Powerplay stacks are the way to go in this one, and there’s an argument to be made for the top unit of either team. Given their powerplay correlation, Nashville 1 and Winnipeg 1 carry the most upside in this one.

Chicago Blackhawks & Minnesota Wild

Favourite Home Coaching Strategy
CHI1 MIN1
Slight MIN1
Not a hard match
LW A. DeBrincat 1️⃣ LW J. Zucker 1️⃣
C J. Toews 1️⃣ C E. Staal 1️⃣
RW D. Kahun 2️⃣ RW J. Eriksson Ek
Sample: 241:15 TOI (Toews & DeBrincat) Sample: 487:40 TOI (Zucker & Staal)
OFF: 66 CF, 31 SCF, 9 HDCF OFF: 66 CF, 33 SCF, 16 HDCF
DEF: 58 CA, 24 SCA, 12 HDCA DEF: 58 CA, 24 SCA, 10 HDCA
➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖
CHI2 MIN2
Even
Hard match
LW B. Saad 2️⃣ LW Z. Parise 2️⃣
C N. Schmaltz 1️⃣ C M. Koivu 2️⃣
RW P. Kane 1️⃣ RW M. Granlund 1️⃣
Sample: 125:31 TOI Sample: 134:58 TOI
OFF: 58 CF, 29 SCF, 11 HDCF OFF: 46 CF, 18 SCF, 10 HDCF
DEF: 58 CA, 32 SCA, 12 HDCA DEF: 50 CA, 16 SCA, 7 HDCA
➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖
CHI3 MIN3
N/A
Not a hard match
LW C. Kunitz LW N. Niederreiter 1️⃣
C A. Anisimov 2️⃣ C J. Greenway
RW A. Fortin RW C. Coyle 2️⃣
Sample: No Sample-Fortin is a rookie and Kunitz is new to the team Sample: 100:22 (Coyle & Niederreiter)
OFF: N/A OFF: 56 CF, 28 SCF, 14 HDCF
DEF: N/A DEF: 62 CA, 32 SCA, 11 HDCA

Analysis:

Minnesota 1 holds a slight advantage over the Toews line, but I would be surprised if their numbers didn’t take a hit with the addition of Eriksson EK. The Koivu line should play Kane and Schmaltz to a low-event draw, so neither line is terribly appealing. Minnesota’s powerplay is worth considering simply because of the Blackhawks’ goaltending. They won’t need a ton of opportunities to convert in this one, but it should be a tight game at 5v5.

Calgary Flames @ St. Louis Blues

  Favourite Home Coaching Strategy
CGY1 STL1
N/A
Top-9 vs Top-9
LW J. Gaudreau 1️⃣ LW P. Maroon 1️⃣
C S. Monahan 1️⃣ C R. O’Reilly 1️⃣
RW E. Lindholm 1️⃣ RW V. Tarasenko 1️⃣
Sample: 924:49 TOI (Monahan & Gaudreau) Sample: No Sample-Maroon and O’Reilly are both new to the team.
OFF: 69 CF, 32 SCF, 15 HDCF OFF: N/A
DEF: 56 CA, 27 SCA, 12 HDCA DEF: N/A
➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖
CGY2 STL2
STL2 vs CGY1: Slight CGY1
Top-9 vs Top-9
LW M. Tkachuk 1️⃣ LW J. Schwartz 2️⃣
C M. Backlund 2️⃣ C B. Schenn 2️⃣
RW A. Czarnik 2️⃣ RW D. Perron 2️⃣
STL2 vs CGY2: STL2
Sample: 200:16 TOI (Tkachuk & Backlund w/o Frolik) Sample: 410:04 (Schwartz & Schenn w/o Tarasenko)
OFF: 66 CF, 24 SCF, 10 HDCF OFF: 64 CF, 31 SCF, 11 HDCF
STL2 vs CGY3: N/A
DEF: 54 CA, 23 SCA, 8 HDCA DEF: 50 CA, 25 SCA, 11 HDCA
➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖
CGY3 STL3
N/A
Top-9 vs Top-9
LW S. Bennett LW A. Steen 2️⃣
C D. Dube2️⃣ C T. Bozak 1️⃣
RW J. Neal 2️⃣ RW J. Kyrou
Sample: No Sample-Dube is a rookie, Neal is new to the team Sample: No Sample-Kyrou is a rookie and Bozak is new to the team.
OFF: N/A OFF: N/A
DEF: N/A DEF: N/A

Analysis:

The sample is still just a touch too small to use, but St. Louis 1 looked good in the teams’ first two games. Expect them to do well against Calgary 2 and 3 tonight, but the Monahan-Gaudreau line will be a challenge for them. Considering the lack of samples and the other matchups on this slate, the safe play is to avoid targeting this game for stacks.


Suggested Stacks

  1. 1. San Jose 1
  2. 2. Toronto 2
  3. 3. Tampa Bay 1

Editor’s Note: Credit to Adam Daly for creating this Line Matching format while working at DailyFaceoff.com during the 2017-18 season. To see Adam’s new Line Matching format, we encourage you to become a Patron. 

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Brock Seguin

Brock has been the Editor-In-Chief of DailyFaceoff.com since the start of the 2012-13 season, the Host of the DFO Podcast since 2015 and Editor-In-Chief of DailyDugout since the 2017 season.
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