Every year there are players who are undervalued who get lots of coverage during the draft period. Sometimes forgotten are the guys who are being drafted way too high. This is a look at these players. It is not to say that these guys are not worth roster spots, just that you should not be drafting them at their current average draft position.
Corey Perry – ADP 6.9
It pains me to say this but Perry should not be going anywhere the top 7. His high end potential for this year is probably about 85 points, but 80 is a more reasonable projection. While this is excellent production on a very thin right wing, what you are really paying for is Perry’s PIMS. I do not know about you, but I do not want to be spending my first round pick on PIMS. It is the only stat that you can consistently find late in the draft, and even on the waiver wire. Take a guy like Scott Hartnell or Alex Burrows later in the draft to fill your PIMS need, or just burn a roster spot on a guy who racks up nothing but PIMS. Save your first round pick for a bonafide point producer.
Prediction: 35 G, 45 A, +15, 100 PIMS, 25 PPP
Mikka Kiprusoff – ADP 15.4
This guy is above average in only one category, which is wins. This is because he plays for a strong Calgary squad and starts about 75 games per year. However, this high workload may not materialize this year thanks to the compressed schedule of an Olympic year. If his workload drops to 65 or so games, Kipper’s value drops considerably. Arguments to this would be that his numbers will improve thanks to the addition of Jay Bouwmeester on the backend. To that I say Bouwmeester was -2 last year on a decent Florida squad that almost made the playoffs. I know he had to shoulder almost all of the defensive responsibility on that team, but the fact of the matter is Jay Bo is not a premiere shutdown defenceman like some would like to think. As a final note, Kipper is on average the second goalie off the board after Nabokov. Apparently people have never heard of these two guys named Brodeur and Luongo…
Prediction: 40 W, 2.75 GAA, .905 SV%, 3 SO
Jonathan Toews – ADP 38.7
Over the last two seasons, Toews has put up 54 (in an injury shortened 64 games) and 69 points respectively. These are good numbers for such a young kid, and he should only improve. However, I am of the opinion that you do not need to spend your 4th round pick on a center who will probably be under a point per game. There are plenty of good centers out there who will only give you slightly less; and you can get them in the tenth round or later. Solidify yourself with a top player at another position before you call out Toews name.
Prediction: 35 G, 40 A, +15, 50 PIMS, 25 PPP
Chris Osgood – ADP 43.0
43rd overall is not as bad as it originally seems thanks to the fact that goalies seem to be finally getting the respect they deserve this year. Osgood is actually the tenth goalie off the board on average. If he can bounce back this year, Osgood may be able to justify this draft position, but that is unlikely. Coach Mike Babcock is on record as saying that he expects his backup to win 25 games this year, meaning Osgood will probably only be seeing the crease for half of Detroit’s games. When you combine this with his terrible save percentage and goals against average, it could be a long year for Osgood owners. Do yourself a favour and go with a safer bet like Pekka Rinne of Chris Mason later in the draft.
Prediction: 25 W, 2.85 GAA, .900 SV %, 2 SO
Nikolai Zherdev – ADP 113.3
He is playing in th KHL. Seriously, stop drafting him. He was barely worth a roster spot when he was in the NHL, let alone playing on this continent.
Prediction: Zeroes across the board.