Which NHL team out of a playoff spot at Thanksgiving will still get in?

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U.S. Thanksgiving arrived, NHL play paused for a day, and we got a nice snapshot of the standings, which featured plenty of surprises over the season’s first quarter.

Statistically, teams sitting outside playoff positions by U.S. Thanksgiving have a hard time getting in, but there are always exceptions. Of the 16 teams not holding down playoff spots as of Nov. 24, which do you expect to get in by season’s end?

Over to you, Daily Faceoff Roundtable…

MATT LARKIN: I’ll go with the Florida Panthers. On one hand, I’m not surprised that they’ve regressed from last season’s Presidents’ Trophy form. It wasn’t going to matter how good Matthew Tkachuk was; the losses far outweighed the offseason gains on paper, with Jonathan Huberdeau, MacKenzie Weegar, Mason Marchment, Claude Giroux and more out the door, not to mention Anthony Duclair’s injury. But I still expected this team to be playoff caliber, and it honestly still is. In 5-on-5 play, through Nov. 24, the Panthers had the third-best shot attempt share in the league; averaged the most shots on goal per 60; and had the second-highest expected goals per 60. What changed: they had one of the lower shooting percentages in the league. Their puck luck should regress to the mean soon enough, and the wins will come.

FRANK SERAVALLI: This one feels like a no-brainer, but it’s the Edmonton Oilers for me. The simple reason is, they don’t have an option to miss. It can’t happen. Not after a Conference Final appearance, not with Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl having all-world seasons again. They’ve underwhelmed in a lot of categories this season, and I think there hasn’t been as much talk about it because most assume that they’ll figure it out. The truth is they need help, they’re still a bit of a flawed roster. They have too many one-dimensional players in their bottom-six forward group, Jack Campbell does not look like a sound bet in net, and their younger players haven’t run with the ball given the opportunity. They need to figure something out and it feels like Ken Holland is on the clock to make a change or two.

NICK ALBERGA: For me, it would be the Edmonton Oilers. In general, I think there’s a few teams on the outside looking in right now that will ultimately end up clinching a postseason berth. Looking back at 2021-22, 12 of the 16 teams in a playoff spot on American Thanksgiving went on to get in. Through 20 outings, the Oilers were 10-10-0 with 20 points, which put them in a tie for the final WC spot and just four points out (with two games in hand) of third in the Pacific. Indisputably, the main reason for the so-so start has been the goaltending; Jack Campbell has been downright atrocious (6-5-0, 4.15, .876 through Nov. 24). Edmonton ranked 26th of 32 in goals allowed (72) and 28th in goals against (3.60) as of Thanksgiving. Assuming they get their crease/defense figured out, the Oilers should have no problem elevating up the Western Conference standings. They’ll get in.

STEVEN ELLIS: It’s hard to disagree with the obvious choice, being the Edmonton Oilers. But I also think the Pittsburgh Penguins can’t be ignored here. The tough start put them far behind early, but they’ve played really good hockey recently and we know what 87 and 71 are capable of when the going gets tough. They’re one of the highest scoring teams in the league, and once things even out with a higher game count, I think they’ll be challenging for a playoff spot – most likely in a wild-card scenario.

MIKE MCKENNA: I’m going with the Pittsburgh Penguins. And it’s mostly to save my bacon. I picked them to win the Stanley Cup. Last season I chose the Winnipeg Jets. So I’m going to look like a complete idiot if both miss the Stanley Cup playoffs in consecutive years. But realistically I think the Penguins have too good of a lineup to miss the dance and they’ve been better lately posting four wins in a row entering Thanksgiving. I do have concerns about Pittsburgh’s defensive core. And the Penguins need whatever injury that’s been nagging Tristan Jarry to heal up. But Sidney Crosby has been a force of late and I expect him to lead Pittsburgh back into contention. The question is: which team falls out of the race? Detroit? The Islanders? Dare I say Carolina? I’m not sure. But I do think Pittsburgh will find a way.
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Which NHL team out of a playoff spot at Thanksgiving will still get in?

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