2020 Projected Lineups: New York Rangers

Brock Seguin
Brock Seguin(@Brock_Seguin)
2020 Projected Lineups: New York Rangers

The @New York Rangers have had a quick turnaround, from finishing 12th in the Eastern Conference in 2018 and 2019 to a team that should challenge for a playoff spot in 2021.

Their resurgence started with signing @Artemi Panarin and continued when they won the draft lottery this year, landing No.1 overall pick @Alexis Lafrenière. The 19-year-old winger joins a team that is loaded with young talent, including 2019 No.2 overall pick @Kaapo Kakko, Harvard standout and second-year defenseman @Adam Fox and one of the best goaltending prospects in @Igor Shesterkin.

@Mika Zibanejad and @Ryan Strome took huge steps forward in 2020 and if players like Kakko, @Pavel Buchnevich and @Filip Chytil can do the same, the Rangers could be even better than their +598 Odds to win the East Division [per OddsShark.com] suggests.

Projected Forward Lines

New York’s lines are some of the most difficult to project because of the addition of Lafreniere. Many will expect to see him on the top line, and he may play with @Mika Zibanejad eventually, but I would expect to see him on the third line to start his NHL career.

If Lafreniere starts with Chytil, @Chris Kreider and @Pavel Buchnevich should be with Zibanejad. The trio spent a good portion (285.7 5v5 TOI) of 2020 together, posting a terrific 63.0 GoalsFor%, which ranked ninth among the 37 lines who played at least 275 5v5 TOI. They were 14th in GF/60 (3.57) and 11th in GA/60 (2.10). Given how strong those numbers are, it seems likely that they’ll stick with what worked until it doesn’t anymore.

Panarin and Strome were tied at the hip last season. Panarin played 65 percent of his 5v5 ice-time with Strome and 452.2 TOI of that came with @Jesper Fast on the right wing. With Fast now in Carolina, there’s a highly coveted fantasy spot up for grabs. The Rangers don’t really have a forechecker of Fast’s calibre to replace him, but this is a line that relies on having the puck on their stick, and that makes Kakko a great fit. Kakko is sort of an afterthought right now after having a quiet rookie season and with all of the fantasy excitement being on Lafreniere, Panarin and Zibanejad. Playing with Panarin would certainly be a good way to spark Kakko to start his second season. In just over 125 TOI a year ago, Kakko’s numbers improved drastically with Panarin and Strome and starting 2021 in the top-6 would make him an outstanding breakout candidate.

With the top-6 solidified, Lafreniere opens the season with Chytil and potentially @Julien Gauthier on the other wing.

This is a line that I pencilled in right after the draft and I still think it makes sense. As I pointed out in October, all three have great size and skating ability. Gauthier is another former first-rounder being overlooked on this roster. He has had terrific numbers in the QMJHL and AHL and was outstanding on the forecheck in his brief stint with New York last season. The three first-round picks could all breakout together if they develop chemistry quickly. Lafreniere and Gauthier grew up ≈40 minutes apart, so there should be familiarity there as well.

@Brendan Lemieux appears to be the only lock on the Rangers’ fourth-line and the other two spots should be up for grabs in training camp. As a two-year veteran on the fourth-line, @Brett Howden should have an edge to earn one of those spots. The other spot will probably come down to 2017 sixth-round pick @Morgan Barron, former New Jersey Devil @Kevin Rooney, @Phil DiGiuseppe and/or former Predator @Colin Blackwell.

Projected Defensive Pairings

While the Rangers are loaded upfront, the blueline could be a bit more of a problem area. One of their pairings appears set with two second-year players, @Ryan Lindgren and Fox. The two former NCAA defensemen played over 675 TOI together last season, finishing with a really strong 1.95 GA/60 and 60.7 GF%. Their GA/60 ranked 14th among pairings with at least 400 TOI and their offensive contributions (3.01 GF/60) was 10th. They probably aren’t equipped to play over 20 minutes per night, so expect @Jacob Trouba to continue to play the tough first-pairing minutes. Lindgren-Fox’s numbers show they are one of the best second-pair duos in the league.

After @Brady Skjei was traded to Carolina in February, Trouba spent a lot of time with @Brendan Smith, but that doesn’t seem like an ideal long-term fit. @Jack Johnson and @Anthony Bitetto are their only other two lefties and neither of them is close to first-pairing defensemen. That leaves them with having to put @Tony DeAngelo on the left side, which is something they did at times in the 2020 season. DeAngelo’s off-ice personality may not get on with the fans but his on-ice play remains underappreciated. He has tremendous puck-moving ability with high-end offensive upside and Trouba is the perfect partner to help cover up some of the defensive deficiencies that still linger. If DeAngelo-Trouba works out, the Rangers top-4 could be stout.

The third pairing… not so much. The Rangers traded away draft picks to get rid of @Marc Staal, only to bring in Johnson. That doesn’t make a lot of sense but Johnson may be OK in a limited role. The Penguins tried to get too much out of him, playing him over 19 minutes per night. If he’s closer to 15 minutes in cushier matchups, Johnson could be serviceable.

Advanced Stats via MoneyPuck.com and HockeyReference.com 

Salary Cap Figures via PuckPedia.com 

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