2023 NHL team salary cap rankings: #32-25
As the calendar shifts to September and training camp gets closer to starting, it means that the offseason is coming to an end and most of the roster movement is out of the way (or at least there was action in July, not so much in August).
That means it’s time to officially kick off this season’s salary cap rankings at Daily Faceoff, where we take a look at all the different aspects of managing and excelling in the salary cap era, and rank teams based on how well they do. That’s all done through a somewhat complex process and system, which I have outlined n a summary of its own for your convenience.
This week, we kick off the rankings looking at the worst of the worst, the teams that struggle in most, if not all, of the categories involved. Some are rebuilding teams scraping off the final bad contracts of a previous era, some are contending teams with only a year or two before the dam bursts, and some are teams on the cusp of contention that may have jumped the gun too quickly with some desperation in free agency.
32. Edmonton Oilers (2022: 31st)
Good Contract Percentage: 17th (2022: 20th)
Quality Cheap Deals: 25th (2022: 30th)
Contracts with No-Trade/No-Move Clauses: 14th (2022: 21st)
Dead Cap Space: 22nd (2022: 26th)
Quality of Core: 27th (2022: 18th)
Cap Space to Skill Differential: 31st (2022: 24th)
The Oilers ranking second-last in last year’s edition of the cap rankings made its fair share of headlines, so I’m sure them dropping the only possible spot they could to fall to last place will be handled just as well. This happens despite the fact that they actually improved in four categories, but the big factor holding them back is that they were the only team to not rank in the top 10 of at least one category, and even with that, they barely had one crack the top half of the list.
Their two biggest improvements were in good contract percentage and contracts with no-move clauses. The no-move clause simply improves because Duncan Keith is out of the picture, otherwise, it’s the same seven that occupied that spot last season. The good contract percentage also improves because of departures like Keith and Mike Smith, along with Zach Hyman’s play last season improving his tier to second-liner and making him adequately paid and the new contracts to Stuart Skinner and Evan Bouchard. But, the same group of Evander Kane, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Darnell Nurse, Cody Ceci, and Jack Campbell that hampered their play driving last season level out their GCP to just under 50%, and Brett Kulak’s play last season lowered him to the bad contract group as well. And for the record, Nugent-Hopkins continues to stay in the bad category despite a 104-point season due to an over-reliance on power play production (something that also hampers Leon Draisaitl in this evaluation system).
Other than that, it’s pretty bleak in Edmonton. They see marginal improvement in quality cheap deals thanks to the new one for Derek Ryan and signing Connor Brown, although that will just hurt them in the dead cap space department next year. Speaking of dead cap space, that’s the other category that saw a bit of growth with Milan Lucic’s retained salary and Andrej Sekera’s buyout off the books, but like quality cheap deals, they still rank near the bottom. Connor McDavid’s contract having only three seasons remaining hurt their quality of core significantly this season, while once again, the system sees this group as a fringe playoff team that shouldn’t be over the cap like they actually are. Of course, this doesn’t quite capture the impact McDavid has on the whole team, but the Oilers cap situation is very much positioned for them to win now and suffer later, and with Draisaitl’s contract up in two years and McDavid’s in three, it’s really going to suffer to make room for them.
31. St. Louis Blues (2022: 26th)
Good Contract Percentage: 31st (2022: 23rd)
Quality Cheap Deals: 6th (2022: 23rd)
Contracts with No-Trade/No-Move Clauses: 25th (2022: 27th)
Dead Cap Space: 7th (2022: 2nd)
Quality of Core: 31st (2022: 23rd)
Cap Space to Skill Differential: 32nd (2022: 17th)
The Blues were one of two teams that went into the 2022-23 season with some suspicions as to how good they actually were considering that they overperformed their underlying numbers in 2021-22, but while the New York Rangers improved upon their play and became a legitimately competitive team, the Blues were exposed for the frauds they were, and as a result, it’s dropped them to 31st on this year’s list.
A big reason is that they rank last or second-last in three different categories: good contract percentage, quality of core, and cap space to skill differential. Their good contract percentage took a big hit due to no good contracts in net or on the blueline, and the additions of the Robert Thomas and Jordan Kyrou extensions leaves them with just Pavel Buchnevich, Jakub Vrana, and Sammy Blais as their lone good contracts in the system. Kyrou and Thomas’ additions to the core also hindered that category for them as they both only come out as second liners, and the fact that this team is close to the cap when they are more likely to be a lottery contender hurts them in cap space to skill differential.
It isn’t all bad, as they at least rank top 10 in both quality of cheap deals and dead cap space. Joel Hofer and Calle Rosen lead a group of nine players on the Blues that rank above replacement level, and it’s not just a bunch of fringe fourth liners and bottom pairs, as six of the nine rank as third line/second pair/starter or higher. They dropped in dead cap space due to a $20,000 signing bonus but still come out solid overall in seventh place. It’s an alright group overall, and there’s some promise if some of the players can return to their 2021-22 forms while also having the underlying numbers to back it up. But the contracts to Brayden Schenn and Colton Parayko continue to look UGLY, and there’s still quite the mess to wade through to get to the brighter side, one that may finally cost the longest tenured GM in Doug Armstrong his job.
30. Detroit Red Wings (2022: 22nd)
Good Contract Percentage: 24th (2022: 16th)
Quality Cheap Deals: 9th (2022: 15th)
Contracts with No-Trade/No-Move Clauses: 28th (2022: 9th)
Dead Cap Space: 24th (2022: 27th)
Quality of Core: 20th (2022: 26th)
Cap Space to Skill Differential: 21st (2022: 9th)
Steve Yzerman’s direction with the Red Wings continues to be at-best confusing and at-worst misguided. Last season saw the Wings rank poorly on this list due to a questionable 2022 offseason that saw Yzerman load up on older players to complement a core that wasn’t ready to be competitive yet. He backtracked at the deadline when that didn’t pan out, but come summer of 2023, he’s done the exact same thing, and it’s dropped the Wings even further down the list.
Sitting in the 20’s in five of the six categories certainly doesn’t do you any favors, and a lot of that is due to the back-to-back summers of spending in free agency. Some of the contracts like David Perron, Daniel Sprong, Shayne Gostisbehere, and James Reimer look favourable, but the additions of Andrew Copp and Ben Chiarot last year and J.T. Compher and Justin Holl this year drag that way down, not to mention that a lot of these signings have some no-trade/no-move clauses attached to them to hinder another category. All of that builds to a roster that doesn’t grade out well, and even with more than $5 million in cap space, the system thinks a team of this quality should have more cap space.
However, they did see some marginal improvement in couple areas. They see their quality of core get better as Dylan Larkin and Alex DeBrincat’s contracts kick in (and more importantly, Chiarot no longer qualifies as a core player), and their dead cap space went down with Frans Nielsen’s buyout all wrapped up. Where they look best, though, is with their quality cheap deals, as their rebuild has given them plenty of quality young players on entry-level contracts like Moritz Seider and Elmer Soderblom. But, there’s still a lot left to be desired with their cap situation, which is disappointing when you consider that all that’s left of the cap hell Ken Holland left behind is Justin Abdelkader’s buyout penalty.
29. Chicago Blackhawks (2022: 32nd)
Good Contract Percentage: 29th (2022: 28th)
Quality Cheap Deals: 3rd (2022: 22nd)
Contracts with No-Trade/No-Move Clauses: 9th (2022: 14th)
Dead Cap Space: 30th (2022: 31st)
Quality of Core: 32nd (2022: 32nd)
Cap Space to Skill Differential: 19th (2022: 21st)
Last year’s team with the worst cap situation didn’t drastically change things up overnight, but they still managed to move up a few spots to get out of the basement. What’s more impressive is that they did it without Connor Bedard coming into effect in the system yet, as him having no NHL data means that he doesn’t cross its radar.
Their first full season of the teardown in Chicago meant that a lot of rookie talent got its chance with the Blackhawks last season, resulting in their biggest change from last year in quality cheap deals. Players like Filip Roos, Alex Vlasic, and Isaak Phillips have already started getting ice time and proven to be above replacement level, something especially tricky on a team that was as bad as the Blackhawks where there wasn’t a lot to shelter them. They also graded well with no-trade/no-move contracts largely thanks to Jonathan Toews and Patrick Kane’s monster deals finally coming to an end.
Everything else either saw marginal improvement, stayed the same, or got slightly worse, but the fact that they all rank near the bottom is why Chicago is still only 29th. Their good contract percentage is still a mess, but that’s to be expected when you’re the new bad contract graveyard of the league and also had to overpay to bring on veterans like Corey Perry and Nick Foligno. Their dead cap space didn’t see much of a change, as even though Duncan Keith’s recapture penalty went down, it was basically offset by the Josh Bailey buyout, and their quality of core stays in dead last because the only player who qualifies is Seth Jones, who actually saw improvement in his grade from replacement level to bottom pair defender. But the good news is that outside of the Jones contract, a lot of the bad on the Blackhawk’s cap sheet is short term, and will be more than out of the way by the time this rebuild is concluded and they’ve managed to build a solid team around Bedard.
28. Ottawa Senators (2022: 10th)
Good Contract Percentage: 23rd (2022: 15th)
Quality Cheap Deals: 9th (2022: 6th)
Contracts with No-Trade/No-Move Clauses: 9th (2022: 3rd)
Dead Cap Space: 26th (2022: 28th)
Quality of Core: 26th (2022: 14th)
Cap Space to Skill Differential: 24th (2022: 7th)
Last season, the Sens were looking good both on the ice and on the books thanks to Hot Dorion Summer, but one year later, their cap situation appears to have taken a big step back, even though the on-ice product still promises to be competitive. Seeing significant downgrades in a majority of the categories will do that to a team’s ranking, and when the only improvement they made was by two spots in just one category, you can see why it was so easy for them to fall.
Their quality of core took one of the biggest hits, as the addition of Joonas Korpisalo on a five-year deal, who came out as replacement level in the system, and the four-year extension for Artem Zub, who came out as a bottom-pair defender, hinder that category by quite a lot. That also affected their good contract percentage, as those two contracts along with Travis Hamonic’s new deal and the additions of Vladimir Tarasenko and Dominik Kubalik grade out as overpayments for the type of players they are at this point. It doesn’t help either that the system still doesn’t love Tim Stutzle, Drake Batherson, and Josh Norris due to an overreliance on power play production in their most productive seasons, although it did like Stutzle’s 2022-23 season, it was just weighed down by a couple of mediocre seasons to start his career. That all leads up to a roster that looks like it will be outside of the playoff bubble that shouldn’t be right up against the cap like they are, which is why they dropped so much in cap space to skill differential.
They still look alright in a couple of other categories. They have plenty of quality players for cheap like Ridly Greig, Jake Sanderson, and Tyler Kleven, and they still look favorable for no-trade/no-move contracts despite the addition of five since last year’s list. They also did improve with regards to dead cap space as well, as one of their buyouts are off the books, with two more in Bobby Ryan and Michael Del Zotto and Matt Murray’s retained salary in its final year. The Sens will likely see more improvement in the coming years as the short-term bad contracts are off the books and the young core establishes itself with a bit more consistent 5v5 play, but they find themselves in that stretch where those contracts “look” bad even though down the road they’ll look like steals. At least, that should be the case with Stutzle. Norris and Batherson don’t have quite as convincing cases of being truly high-end players so far in their careers, especially at 5v5.
27. San Jose Sharks (2022: 27th)
Good Contract Percentage: 28th (2022: 13th)
Quality Cheap Deals: 3rd (2022: 7th)
Contracts with No-Trade/No-Move Clauses: 5th (2022: 14th)
Dead Cap Space: 29th (2022: 29th)
Quality of Core: 23rd (2022: 21st)
Cap Space to Skill Differential: 27th (2022: 31st)
The Sharks find themselves in the exact same spot as last season, although that shouldn’t be nearly as much of a surprise as their cap situation has slowly gotten better. They still have a lot of bad contracts on the books, but it’s not nearly as many long-term deals taking up large chunks of the cap as before. It’s just a lot of pricey one or two year deals that they took on to get rid of those pricier deals.
The Karlsson trade is the biggest culprit for this, as they managed to move most of his $11.5 million, and in exchange got what are now three of their worst contracts in Mike Hoffman, Mikael Granlund, and Jan Rutta. That took a big hit to their good contract percentage, along with the additions of Filip Zadina and MacKenzie Blackwood, although those latter two have a bit higher upside and could pay off for the Sharks. Losing Karlsson is also why their quality of core and cap space to skill differential is still low as well, as he graded out as elite after last season and would have really helped both categories. His retained salary also doesn’t help their dead cap space, but that doesn’t mean it wasn’t the right move for the Sharks.
At the very least, the Sharks have given themselves the flexibility to navigate their remaining issues with only four no-move/no-trade contracts, although three of them are to their three most-expensive deals. On top of that, there’s plenty of hope for the future with the third-most quality cheap deals like Danil Gushchin, Thomas Bordeleau, Nikita Okhotiuk, and Eetu Makiniemi, which is the one area they would want to do well in at this stage of the rebuild. Logan Couture and Marc-Edouard Vlasic’s deals still somehow have four and three years left, respectively, so there’s still a while before the worst is over, but they aren’t trying to compete now anyways, and it was looking much worse even one or two years ago.
26. New York Islanders (2022: 25th)
Good Contract Percentage: 26th (2022: 25th)
Quality Cheap Deals: 19th (2022: 30th)
Contracts with No-Trade/No-Move Clauses: 25th (2022: 15th)
Dead Cap Space: 1st (2022: 2nd)
Quality of Core: 13th (2022: 25th)
Cap Space to Skill Differential: 29th (2022: 17th)
Going into every offseason, I take a look at the players the Islanders need to bring back, and I always assume this is the year where they can start to be reasonable with their cap management. Whether that means finally getting a chance to move on from some middling players on bad contracts or to utilize the cap space and make a big splash to significantly improve the team, the opportunity is usually there. But every offseason, Lou Lamoriello doubles down on a mediocre roster, and he usually signs those players to a deal that’s way too long for the player involved.
It’s funny I say that, because this year’s culprit for the Islanders, Pierre Engvall, ended up being their only contract of their forwards that the system actually liked, with their remaining 10 above that $1 million mark coming out as bad deals. That includes their two best players starting the first year of new extensions, as both are getting paid like elite forwards when Mat Barzal came out as a first liner and Bo Horvat comes out as a second liner. Their goaltending looks much better thanks to having the best 1-2 punch in the league, and their defense is batting .500 in GCP, including the new contract to Scott Mayfield, but that forward group continues to look extremely mediocre and will continue to get paid more than it should to do so, which is also why they drop so far in the cap space to skill differential. Oh, and more than half of that forward group have no-trade/no-move clauses as well.
If there’s one thing Lamoriello has done a good job of, it’s keeping his hands clean from dead cap space. That usually comes at the cost of spending assets to get rid of contracts like Andrew Ladd and Josh Bailey, but that is one area where they’ve looked favorable in. Their recent extensions also helped improve their quality of core, particularly Ilya Sorokin, as well as losing Anders Lee, Jean-Gabriel Pageau, and Ross Johnston from that group, and they have done a better job of bringing in cheap players, but outside of Oliver Wahlstrom and Simon Holmstrom, none of them are from their prospect pool, another sign of the bleak future to come. All in all, this is what it looks like when a team that probably needs to retool or rebuild but refuses to do so and just keeps trying to squeak into the playoffs and recapture the magic of their 2020 and 2021 playoff runs, and that probably isn’t going to change until Lamoriello gives up control.
25. Anaheim Ducks (2022: 24th)
Good Contract Percentage: 32nd (2022: 32nd)
Quality Cheap Deals: 30th (2022: 15th)
Contracts with No-Trade/No-Move Clauses: 9th (2022: 13th)
Dead Cap Space: 1st (2022: 25th)
Quality of Core: 28th (2022: 17th)
Cap Space to Skill Differential: 12th (2022: 9th)
The Ducks find themselves dealing with a similar problem as the Red Wings, but on a smaller scale. It’s a solid team with a good young core and plenty of promising prospects, but anytime they dip their toes into free agency, they usually make more of a mess than they need to. Last season it was Ryan Strome, Frank Vatrano, and John Klingberg, and this summer it was Alex Killorn and Radko Gudas, all solid players that aren’t particularly necessary signings for the Ducks given where they are at the moment.
Luckily for the Ducks, they have the cap space to pull that off right now, as they have just over $16.6 million in cap space before signing Trevor Zegras and Jamie Drysdale, but those free agency deals will eventually become road blocks for their young talent. It helps that they no longer have any dead cap space with Corey Perry’s buyout out of the picture, and they’ve managed to not hamstring the team with too many no-trade/no-move contracts, so they at least have the flexibility to move on from some of the bad contracts when push comes to shove.
But that’s about where the positives end. The most alarming thing is that, according to the system, they only have two good contracts, which is a league-worst mark. Those belong to the recently extended Troy Terry, and one of their free agent signings in Gudas, who’s always been a solid analytics darling, but his age and style of play should cause some concern that he’ll fall off at a moment’s notice. Terry’s extension isn’t enough to help their quality of core, as Killorn, Strome, and John Gibson just aren’t the kind of players you want in that group at this point of their careers. But what’s more concerning for a rebuilding team is the lack of cheap quality deals. It doesn’t help their case that Zegras and Drysdale are off their ELCs, and the rest of their prospects don’t have the NHL experience to qualify, but you’d hope for more than four from the team that finished last place last season.
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