Olympic men’s hockey quarterfinal preview: Canada vs. Czechia
CANADA (3-0-0-0) vs. CZECHIA (2-0-1-1): Feb. 18, 10:40 p.m. ET
HOW THEY GOT HERE
For Canada, the getting here part turned out to be pretty easy. Team Canada wiped out their Group A opposition by a combined score of 20-3, including 10 tallies past France as Canada sought to wrap up the No. 1 seed. Convincing victories over Switzerland and Czechia, arguably two of the six strongest rosters in the field, reaffirmed Canada’s dominance of the hockey world for now, at least.
Czechia’s journey through Group A wasn’t quite as smooth, with a heartbreaking loss to Switzerland dropping them into the murky middle of play-in qualifiers instead of a cushy matchup with Italy. Still, they’re right where they want to be after dispatching the Danish delegation in a hard-fought 3-2 victory. By “right there they want to be,” I mean the quarterfinal. No one wants to play Canada, not least of all as the second half of a back-to-back.
WHEN THEY LAST MET IN BEST ON BEST…
…was just last week, when Canada rolled to a 5-0 win. To be fair to the Czechs, that was probably the most awkward the Canadians have looked so far; the gold medal favorites surrendered some quality early looks and took nearly a full period to break through on a netfront redirection. To be fair to the Canadians, their version of a slow start still comprehensively broke down what was expected to be the fifth-strongest roster in the field; Bo Horvat’s goal to extend the lead to three was a reminder that even Canada’s fourth line can burn you with high-end skill.
TOP SCORERS
Canada
1. Connor McDavid, F: 3 GP, 2 G, 7 A, 9 P
T2. Macklin Celebrini, F: 3 GP, 4 G, 2 A, 6 P
T2. Sidney Crosby, D: 4 GP, 2 G, 4 A, 6 P
T3. Nathan MacKinnon, F: 3 GP, 2 G, 3 A, 5 P
5. Mark Stone, F: 3 GP, 2 G, 2 A, 4 P
Czechia
1. Martin Necas, F: 4 GP, 3 G, 4 A, 7 P
T2. David Pastrnak, F: 4 GP, 1 G, 3 A, 4 P
T2. Filip Hronek, D: 4 GP, 0 G, 4 A, 4 P
T3. Filip Chlapik, F: 3 GP, 2 G, 1 A, 3 P
T3. Roman Cervenka, F: 4 GP, 2 G, 1 A, 3 P
CANADA
If you’re looking for one perfect summary of Team Canada’s unholy array of offensive firepower, check out their top three scorers in the section above. Ranked first is Connor McDavid, the best player in the world. Tied for second are golden boy turned ageless wonder Sidney Crosby and McDavid’s 19-year-old linemate Macklin Celebrini, already an MVP-caliber talent. That’s three generations of dominance before you even get to one-time MVP Nathan MacKinnon, who took Tuesday’s practice off but is expected to play, or two-time Norris Trophy winner Cale Makar. Makar is by far the most dynamic Canadian defender, but Thomas Harley’s strong performance in Group A and Josh Morrisey’s return to health give Canada several strong puckmovers. Coach Jon Cooper’s decision to ride with Jordan Binnington in goal after a shaky performance against France will give some Canadians ulcers, but ‘Binner’ was perfect when he last faced these Czechs.
CZECHIA
The Czechs were lucky that a procession of thoughtless penalties only ended in one Danish tally past their shoddy PK (63.64%) on Tuesday. Martin Necas’s productive line with David Kampf and Filip Chlapik has been their only reliable source of offense (Necas scored and assisted vs. DEN), and that includes David Pastrnak. Pastrnak kept up his point-per-game pace against Denmark by assisting on captain and longtime collaborator Roman Cervenka’s game-winning snipe, but Pastrnak hasn’t looked like the talisman his nation needs and expects him to be. Tomas Hertl, the third most-pedigreed NHL forward for the Czechs after Pastrnak and Necas, has disappeared entirely (0 points), popping up only to take minor penalties here and there. Canada would have been a prohibitive favorite over Czechia no matter what the latter team did in Tuesday’s play-in. That the Czechs won a disjointed, ugly game behind some big stops from Lukas Dostal only reinforces how dire their outlook is ahead of the quarterfinal round.
BURNING QUESTIONS
Canada: Can Nathan MacKinnon’s line get going? All but one of MacKinnon’s five points have either on the power play or when he spelled Tom Wilson to form a mega line with McDavid and Celebrini. With Crosby (alongside Mark Stone and Mitch Marner) and McDavid steering dominant units, getting another led by MacKinnon would make Team Canada truly unstoppable. It looks like cerebral finisher Sam Reinhart could get first dibs at flanking MacKinnon opposite forechecking buzzsaw Brandon Hagel on Wednesday.
Czechia: Can they land the first blow? There is no strategy, no system that will level the playing field between a solid, if underperforming, Czech roster and Canada’s crew of All-Stars and Hall-of-Famers. If their plan is not to keep things respectable but to advance, the Czechs need to get to the first intermission with a lead. If they can stun the superior team by jumping ahead 1-0 (a Binnington gaffe would do nicely), then maybe, just maybe, Dostal can do his best Hasek impression for long enough to frustrate Team Canada into making a mistake that leads to another Czech goal.
PREDICTION
The problem for Czechia isn’t just that Canada is better than them; it’s that the Czechs aren’t meeting their own standard. It wasn’t so long ago that this team beat the United States, Sweden, and Switzerland to claim the 2024 IIHF World Championship with a similar roster to their Olympic group. The results have been tepid ever since, and nothing during a victory over the punchless Danes suggested the now-tired Czechs can build on their earlier effort against Canada. Prediction: Canada wins 6-2
_____
Catch Every Goal from the 2026 Milan Games! The 2026 Milan Games are almost here, and the world’s best men’s and women’s hockey players are ready to battle for gold! The Nation Network is bringing you every game, every jaw-dropping save, and all the drama with live reaction streams and full recaps. Don’t miss a moment of Olympic hockey action—men’s, women’s, and everything in between—on the Daily Faceoff YouTube channel. Subscribe now and stay on top of every play!
_____