Best NHL player prop bets (Nov. 27): Kaprizov in another favorable road spot vs. Sabres
Join Daily Faceoff’s Andy MacNeil as he tries to stay hot (3-0 overall this week) with his NHL player prop picks for what is a busy Wednesday night of hockey.
Kirill Kaprizov Over 1.5 Points (+160)
Minnesota Wild superstar Kirill Kaprizov is a co-favorite for the Hart Trophy as the league’s most valuable player, driven by his exceptional road performances. Kaprizov averages 2.00 points per game away from home, compared to 1.25 at home, helping the Wild achieve a 9-1-3 road record. The 27-year-old has notched nine multi-point games in 12 road outings this season.
Buffalo, meanwhile, has won seven of its last nine games but remains in the league’s bottom half defensively. According to Evolving Hockey, the Sabres rank among the bottom 10 in expected goals against. Kaprizov has also excelled against Buffalo in his career, tallying five goals and four assists in six games. A lot of attention will be on Tage Thompson, who is returning to the Sabres lineup after missing five games, but my focus is Kaprizov.
Zach Werenski Over 3.5 Shots On Goal (+110)
Montreal dominated Columbus in a 5-1 rout on Nov. 16, taking advantage of the Blue Jackets playing the second half of a back-to-back. While the Canadiens have won six straight meetings against Columbus, the Blue Jackets are well-positioned to turn the tables on Wednesday. Columbus boasts a strong 7-3 home record, with wins against some of the league’s top teams, and holds a three-day rest advantage over Montreal, who played at home on Tuesday.
What stands out most is Columbus’s shot generation in November. Over the last 10 games, the Blue Jackets have averaged 35.5 shots on goal per 60 minutes, the highest in the league. Meanwhile, Montreal ranks in the bottom 10 in shots against. Zach Werenski leads Columbus in both shot attempts (166) and shots on goal (76), recording four or more shots in nine of 21 games this season. He struggled in the previous matchup with Montreal but should be better positioned to make an impact this time around.
Andrei Svechnikov Anytime Goal (+210)
Carolina has long been known for generating a high number of shots and chances, and that hasn’t changed as it ranks first in shot attempts and second in expected goals on a per-60 minute basis. What has changed is the rate at which the Hurricanes score goals. They have scored four or more goals in 16 of their 21 games this season.
Forward Martin Necas has been the team’s biggest offensive driver with 12 goals and 23 assists, but his linemate Andrei Svechnikov leads the team in shots on goal by a wide margin and has eight goals, including three in his last five games. Per Evolving Hockey, Svechnikov ranks third among all skaters in individual expected goals per 60 minutes.
New York currently ranks as the second-worst team in shot attempts and expected goals against per 60 minutes, while goaltender Igor Shesterkin has allowed about 3.4 goals per 60 over his last 10 starts. Therefore, a matchup against the Rangers is a good spot to back Svechnikov at +210 odds and try to win back-to-back-to-back anytime goal bets.