Best NHL player prop bets (Oct. 16): A good spot for Stamkos to net his first goal of the season

Join Daily Faceoff’s Nick Martin as he handicaps the best NHL player prop bets available from Thursday’s 11-game NHL slate.

Best Bet – Steven Stamkos Anytime Goal-Scorer: +290 (Sports Interaction, play to +260)

I’ve been pretty low on Stamkos over the last two seasons, and this might be the first time in the history of these prop articles that we have backed him to produce, but at a long price of +290, there appears to be value in backing the former 60-goal scorer to tally his first of the season on Thursday against the Montreal Canadiens.

Based on today’s morning skate, head coach Andrew Brunette appears to be going back to a top trio of Stamkos, Filip Forsberg, and Ryan O’Reilly. The trio has spent only 13.5 minutes together this season but holds a 66.7% expected goal share in that span and has generated 3.50 xGF/60.

Stamkos tallied 27 goals last season during a messy debut season with the Predators after averaging 38.6 goals in the three previous seasons. While his defensive game has trended downward considerably in the latter stages of his career, he still finished with a +8.9 offensive rating last season and scored on 15.5% of his shots on goal. 

Stamkos is a career 16.6% shooter, and it’s obviously no secret that he possesses one of the best one-timers in the game and is capable of beating goaltenders from a distance with his accurate wrister. 

Stamkos has had his chances in the first four games of the season, as he has poured eight shots on target and 19 shot attempts, totalling 1.76 expected goals. As noted, he’s not spent much time on the top line alongside O’Reilly and Forsberg, and he’s likely to generate more high-end scoring chances in tonight’s role.

At +290, I believe we are getting a great price to back a proven goal-scorer as he returns to a role on the top line, and I would bet it down to bet365‘s price of +260. 

Best Bet – Mika Zibanejad Anytime Goal-Scorer: +230 (Sports Interaction, play to +210)

As I outlined in my daily slate breakdown, the Rangers’ underlying results suggest that they are due for a significant uptick in terms of offensive production, and outside of their opening night matchup versus the Pittsburgh Penguins, I’d argue the eye test agrees. 

Zibanejad appears to be one of the most logical candidates to begin racking up points at a higher rate. After a horrible start to the 2024-25 season, Zibanejad had a solid finish to the season, tallying nine goals and 29 points in the final 30 games of the season. 

While the production’s not yet come, Zibanejad has looked to be the Rangers’ most threatening skater this season, and I’ve liked the way he has played thus far. The underlying results support that take, as he has generated 2.62 expected goals and poured 22 shots on target. 

Based on Wednesday’s practice, Zibanejad is expected to skate on the Rangers’ top line alongside Artemi Panarin and Alexis Lafreniere in Thursday’s matchup versus the Toronto Maple Leafs, as well as in his usual role on the power play atop the left circle. 

In a small sample, the Maple Leafs offer a solid matchup for Zibanejad to record his second of the year. Toronto has allowed 3.75 goals against per game this season and ranks 23rd in xGA/60. 

You can follow all of Nick’s hockey bets on the Action Network app!