Breaking down every Round 1 goaltending matchup in the 2026 Stanley Cup Playoffs
It’s the most wonderful time of the hockey calendar, as the Stanley Cup Playoffs are back in action.
All eight series kick off this weekend, and for the next two months, a majority of hockey fans won’t be leaving their couches, whether their team is in the big dance or not.
With plenty of interesting series ahead in the opening round, it feels like the slightest of margins could swing a series one way or the other. And the most important of those margins is the net margin. A goalie can win or lose a series for a team, or sometimes all they need to do is play well enough for the team in front of him to pull off the victory.
So with that, let’s break down the goalie situations of all 16 teams, figure out who to expect in net for each team, and who has the advantage in each series.
Carolina Hurricanes (M1) vs. Ottawa Senators (WC2)
Carolina Hurricanes
Brandon Bussi: 39 GP, 31-6-2, .893 SV%, 8.86 5v5 GSAx
Frederik Andersen: 35 GP, 16-14-5, .874 SV%, 3.92 5v5 GSAx
Pyotr Kochetkov: 9 GP, 6-2-0, .899 SV%, -0.58 5v5 GSAx
Ottawa Senators
Linus Ullmark: 49 GP, 28-12-8, .891 SV%, 2.35 5v5 GSAx
Leevi Merilainen: 20 GP, 8-10-1, .860 SV%, -10.22 5v5 GSAx
James Reimer: 14 GP, 7-4-2, .885 SV%, 1.28 5v5 GSAx
Mads Sogaard: 2 GP, 1-0-0, .833 SV%, -1.64 5v5 GSAx
Hunter Shepard: 1 GP, 0-1-0, .833 SV%, 0.11 5v5 GSAx
Despite the fact the Hurricanes and Senators boast two of the better defenses in the league, this may still wind up being a high-scoring series, largely due to their goaltending. Between the eight goalies to dress up this season, there might not be a single one who bodes confidence for their team going into Game 1.
For the Canes, Bussi was a feel-good story in net with how he started the season. And while his record never really showed it, he struggled down the stretch with an .867 SV% and -3.81 5v5 GSAx since January 29th. Meanwhile, Andersen has struggled all season, and while Kochetkov is only just returning to action after recovering from surgery to a lower-body injury, and didn’t get into an NHL game before the start of the playoffs.
If there’s any goalie who could elevate their play and carry their team to victory, Ullmark is the most likely to, but he struggled mightily this season with his first season below a .905 SV%. He also doesn’t have the best playoff history, with an .885 SV% and a -3.99 5v5 GSAx. That said, he did improve down the stretch and tightened up his play when the Sens needed to win every game to make the playoffs with a .910 SV% and 2.31 5v5 GSAx after March 24th. Reimer was also a solid veteran backup behind Ullmark, but I wouldn’t expect him to enter the series outside of injury or relief in a blowout.
If every goalie were playing at the level we expect from them, the Senators would have a clear advantage with an experienced, Vezina-winning goalie in Ullmark. But his shakiness in the postseason and this season leaves some doubts, and if any of Carolina’s three options can get hot, it could swing things their way.
Buffalo Sabres (A1) vs. Boston Bruins (WC1)
Buffalo Sabres
Alex Lyon: 36 GP, 20-10-4, .906 SV%, 13.69 5v5 GSAx
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen: 35 GP, 22-9-3, .909 SV%, 8.18 5v5 GSAx
Colten Ellis: 16 GP, 8-4-2, .903 SV%, 5.5 5v5 GSAx
Boston Bruins
Jeremy Swayman: 55 GP, 31-18-4, .907 SV%, 40.01 5v5 GSAx
Joonas Korpisalo: 31 GP, 14-9-6, .894 SV%, 6.11 5v5 GSAx
Michael Dipietro: 1 GP, 0-0-0, 1.000 SV%, 0.08 5v5 GSAx
The Sabres have run with a three-man goalie tandem all season when in perfect health, but Lindy Ruff has favored Lyon and Luukkonen more over the course of the season. An argument could have been made for either goalie being the Game 1 starter in the playoffs, as both have played excellent hockey this season, and while Luukkonen is likely “the guy” for the Sabres in the long term, Lyon is slightly more experienced with his four games with the Florida Panthers in 2023.
But with Lyon out on a day-to-day basis with a lower-body injury and ruled out of Game 1, the question of who Buffalo’s starter is becomes much easier. Luukkonen will be the guy, and so long as he doesn’t struggle, he shouldn’t worry about Lyon usurping him. If Luukkonen falters before Lyon returns, Ellis has also had a solid season and can hold his own in the crease.
The Bruins have a lot more certainty in who they’ll put in net in the playoffs. Swayman is not just their clear-cut starter; he was the biggest reason, not named David Pastrnak, that the Bruins are in the postseason, and should probably get some Vezina consideration. After a disappointing first season as the starter for Boston in 2024-25, he’s reminded everyone how good he can be with his performance this season (save for losing sight of the puck on one shot during the Olympics). His last postseason outing (.933 SV%, 1.94 5v5 GSAx) should also inspire plenty of confidence for Boston. Korpisalo’s been fine behind Swayman, but is far too inconsistent to be a reliable option in the playoffs.
The Sabres have the better goalie depth between the two teams in this series, but at the end of the day, all that matters is the two goalies who are in the crease on a given day, and Swayman beats any of the three goalies Buffalo can trot in. The Sabres have the better team up front, but if there’s one advantage the Bruins have, it’s in net.
Tampa Bay Lightning (A2) vs. Montreal Canadiens (A3)
Tampa Bay Lightning
Andrei Vasilevskiy: 58 GP, 39-15-4, .911 SV%, 15.53 5v5 GSAx
Jonas Johansson: 25 GP, 11-10-2, .884 SV%, -2.24 5v5 GSAx
Brandon Halverson: 2 GP, 0-1-0, .810 SV%, -1.05 5v5 GSAx
Montreal Canadiens
Jakub Dobes: 43 GP, 29-10-4, .901 SV%, 22.94 5v5 GSAx
Sam Montembeault: 25 GP, 10-8-4, .873 SV%, -0.73 5v5 GSAx
Jacob Fowler: 17 GP, 9-6-2, .908 SV%, 5.38 5v5 GSAx
Andrei Vasilevskiy might be the Lightning’s biggest advantage in this series. He was great yet again in 2025-26 with a .912 save percentage and a 15.53 5v5 goals saved above expected, and he has more playoff experience than any active goaltender. But he could also be a weakness for the Lightning, as his playoff experience has not shown up in the past few playoff runs (.881 SV%, -6.59 5v5 GSAx). Jonas Johansson (.884, -2.24) isn’t much of an option behind Vasilevskiy, so the Lightning need their Vezina and Conn Smythe winner at his best if they want another shot at a Stanley Cup.
For Montreal, their goaltender is not nearly as clear-cut. Samuel Montembeault (.872 SV%, -0.73 5v5 GSAx) was the starter last year. But saw his game fall off a cliff and has since become the team’s third-stringer. Jakub Dobes has emerged as the starter (.901, 22.94), and after a rocky start, he’s become a much more stable option. If Dobes falters, Montreal will pivot to their goalie of the future in Jacob Fowler, who impressed in the 17 games he played (.908 SV%, 5.38).
This matchup easily favours the Lightning, as Vasilevskiy’s experience means he needs to prove us he can’t do it, while Montreal’s duo needs to prove they can. Still, Vasilevskiy has proved he can’t for three straight seasons, whose to say it doesn’t happen a fourth time.
Pittsburgh Penguins (M2) vs. Philadelphia Flyers (M3)
Pittsburgh Penguins
Stuart Skinner: 50 GP, 23-17-9, .888 SV%, 17.96 5v5 GSAx
Arturs Silovs: 39 GP, 19-12-8, .887 SV%, -1.86 5v5 GSAx
Sergey Murashov: 5 GP, 1-1-2, .897 SV%, 0.49 5v5 GSAx
Philadelphia Flyers
Daniel Vladar: 52 GP, 29-14-7, .906 SV%, 25.24 5v5 GSAx
Samuel Ersson: 29 GP, 14-11-5, .870 SV%, -9.46 5v5 GSAx
Aleksei Kolosov: 4 GP, 0-2-0, .830 SV%, -3.16 5v5 GSAx
At this point, who starts for the Penguins is up in the air. The two have generally been deployed as a tandem, with Skinner’s 27 starts just edging out Silov’s 25, and even down the stretch, the Penguins split their usage in the final 10 games. If you look at their standard stats, it’s basically been even.
Both goalies also have playoff experience. Skinner is fresh off back-to-back Stanley Cup Final appearances, and while he had shaky moments during both runs, he did get them there. But Silovs also knows how to keep the ship steady in the postseason, as evidenced by his time with the 2024 Vancouver Canucks, and he won the Calder Cup with Abbotsford last season. Both goalies actually faced each other in 2024. So if you want to factor in that, advantage Skinner.
Really, both goalies have one differing factor over the other. For Skinner, it’s that he’s been the better goalie analytically with a much better 5v5 GSAx, and would probably be the better win-now option. For Silovs, it’s that he’s a restricted free agent, unlike Skinner’s unrestricted free-agent status, and may be the “long-term” option for Pittsburgh. Murashov is the future in net, but Silovs may have a bit more staying power beyond this season.
For the Flyers, it’s hard to see anyone other than Vladar starting in Game 1. While his career has been plagued by inconsistency, he’s been the go-to guy and played well above his expected performances. Ersson and Kolosov haven’t come close to playing at Vladar’s level, so only injury or a series at the caliber of Ilya Bryzgalov against the Pens in 2012 would change that.
Both sides bring the same level of goaltending to the table: capable of strong performances but could easily lose their game. Whichever team doesn’t get the latter probably wins. Although Pittsburgh has the advantage of a second option (and even a third with Murashov) if one goes wrong. Philadelphia, not so much.
Colorado Avalanche (C1) vs. Los Angeles Kings (WC2)
Colorado Avalanche
Scott Wedgewood: 45 GP, 31-6-6, .921 SV%, 20.73 5v5 GSAx
Mackenzie Blackwood: 39 GP, 23-10-2, .904 SV%, 13.49 5v5 GSAx
Trent Miner: 4 GP, 1-0-3, .923 SV%, 2.23 5v5 GSAx
Los Angeles Kings
Darcy Kuemper: 50 GP, 19-14-15, .891 SV%, 8.74 5v5 GSAx
Anton Forsberg: 36 GP, 16-12-5, .909 SV%, 19.71 5v5 GSAx
Pheonix Copley: 1 GP, 0-1-0, .893 SV%, -0.53 5v5 GSAx
If you told someone at the start of the season that the Avalanche and Kings would meet in the first round, they’d probably guess that the starting goalies would be Mackenzie Blackwood and Darcy Kuemper after their stellar debut seasons with their respective new teams in 2024-25. But as the playoffs begin this weekend, there’s a good chance the backups, Scott Wedgewood and Anton Forsberg, will be the Game 1 starters.
For the Avs, it’s been apparent all season that Wedgewood is their guy right now. An offseason surgery kept Blackwood out of the lineup for the first month of the season, giving Wedgewood the reins during the Avalanche’s hottest stretch of play. While the team never gave one goalie more playing time over the other over the course of the season, it was clear that Wedgewood was playing better hockey, as his .921 save percentage and 20.73 5v5 goals saved above expected were much better than Blackwood’s .904 and 13.49. That said, Blackwood should be more than capable of getting the job done in relief if Wedgewood struggles.
As for the Kings, Forsberg’s rise to the starting gig has been more of a recent development. Fresh off being named a Vezina finalist last season, Kuemper was expected to be L.A.’s number one goalie, while Forsberg would be the backup. Some regression was expected from Kuemper, but he struggled with an .891 SV% and 8.74 5v5 GSAx, while Forsberg thrived with a .910 SV% and 19.71 5v5 GSAx. After the Olympic break, the duo became a tandem, each playing 14 games, and Forsberg significantly outplayed Kuemper down the stretch when locking up their playoff spot. Forsberg should be expected to get the start in Game 1, but don’t be surprised if the Kings return to Kuemper at the first sign of struggles.
The advantage probably goes to the Avalanche, both in having the hotter goalie right now and in having the strong 1-2 tandem. But between the two teams, they lack a truly established goalie option. Even when Kuemper won his Cup with the Avs in 2022, it was sometimes in spite of him rather than because of him.
Vegas Golden Knights (P1) vs. Utah Mammoth (WC1)
Vegas Golden Knights
Akira Schmid: 34 GP, 16-10-6, .893 SV%, 11.36 5v5 GSAx
Adin Hill: 27 GP, 10-9-6, .870 SV%, -10.73 5v5 GSAx
Carter Hart: 18 GP, 11-3-3, .891 SV%, -8.12 5v5 GSAx
Carl Lindbom: 8 GP, 2-4-2, .873 SV%, -2.81 5v5 GSAx
Utah Mammoth
Karel Vejmelka: 64 GP, 38-20-3, .896 SV%, 12.56 5v5 GSAx
Vitek Vanecek: 22 GP, 5-13-3, .883 SV%, -1.33 5v5 GSAx
Goaltending has been a kryptonite of the Golden Knights all season, as a big reason why even their playoff chances were in doubt was that they couldn’t keep the puck out of the net, despite only allowing the second-fewest 5v5 expected goals with 2.41. Hill has been inconsistent ever since his Stanley Cup win, but has reached a new low this year. Hart was similarly inconsistent upon signing, and his two-year absence is almost as much a concern about whether he’s up to speed as it is about his character. Schmid put up the best numbers of the bunch and was reliable amidst injuries, but lacks experience.
However, sometimes you have to go with the hot hand, and right now, that’s Hart. Since John Tortorella took over as head coach, he’s leaned on his connection from the Philadelphia Flyers and relied on Hart in six of the eight games. And Hart has played well with a .928 SV% and 1.47 5v5 GSAx. Considering all that, he probably gets the Game 1 start.
Beyond all of the elite goaltenders in these playoffs, the most-guaranteed Game 1 starter will be Vejmelka. Not only is it because of how much he outperformed Vanecek this season, but also because he played the most games out of any netminder this season. He’s become a workhorse for this franchise dating back to the Coyotes, but it’s his first 60+ game season, and he’s never thrown the playoffs into that mix before.
Vejmelka is the best goalie in this series, but with how much he’s played this season, how long until fatigue sets in? It’s still an advantage for Utah in net, but it’s certainly a concern. At the very least, Vanecek’s performance as a backup hasn’t been too far off from what any of Vegas’ goalies have done this season, so Utah isn’t out of it if Vejmelka gets too tired, or hurt.
Dallas Stars (C2) vs. Minnesota Wild (C3)
Dallas Stars
Jake Oettinger: 54 GP, 35-12-6, .899 SV%, 16.28 5v5 GSAx
Casey DeSmith: 30 GP, 15-8-6, .907 SV%, 15.18 5v5 GSAx
Minnesota Wild
Filip Gustavsson: 50 GP, 28-15-6, .903 SV%, 13.88 5v5 GSAx
Jesper Wallstedt: 35 GP, 18-9-6, .915 SV%, 7.71 5v5 GSAx
For the Stars, this is an open-and-shut case. While Oettinger has struggled at times this season, and DeSmith has had stretches when he’s played better, the crease is Oettinger’s to lose. If anything, DeSmith had a purpose and he played it, as his 30 games allowed Oettinger to play a bit less and be better rested for the playoffs. Barring injury, Oetter is Dallas’ guy.
For the Wild, it’s a bit more complicated. They’ve leaned on Gustavsson for a lot more of the season, and he’s had another excellent season and proven to be Minnesota’s goalie of the future, hence why they dangled Wallstedt at the deadline to improve up front. But since both returned from the Olympics, Wallstedt has been the better goalie with a .918 SV% and 2.06 5v5 GSAx compared to Gustavsson’s .895 and -2.89 marks.
Does Minnesota lean on its usual starter in Gustavsson or roll with the hot hand in Wallstedt?
This is an interesting matchup because both Gustavsson and Wallstedt can play to Oettinger’s level, but lack the consistency he provides the Stars. But if one falters, the other is more than capable of taking the crease and running with it. If Oettinger struggles, DeSmith isn’t a bad option, but he’s definitely the weakest of the four. Regardless, in a tight series like this one, the goaltending doesn’t favour one or the other.
Edmonton Oilers (P2) vs. Anaheim Ducks (P3)
Edmonton Oilers
Connor Ingram: 32 GP, 16-10-3, .899 SV%, 2.03 5v5 GSAx
Tristan Jarry: 33 GP, 18-9-3, .882 SV%, 2.92 5v5 GSAx
Calvin Pickard: 16 GP, 5-6-2, .871 SV%, -8.65 5v5 GSAx
Anaheim Ducks
Lukas Dostal: 56 GP, 30-20-4, .888 SV%, 12.82 5v5 GSAx
Ville Husso: 20 GP, 10-8-2, .884 SV%, -0.55 5v5 GSAx
Petr Mrazek: 10 GP, 3-5-0, .858 SV%, -3.81 5v5 GSAx
Vyacheslav Buteyets: 1 GP, 0-0-0, .769 SV%, -0.95 5v5 GSAx
The Oilers just can’t have a normal goaltending situation. They thought they had finally found a stable solution when they acquired Jarry, dumping Skinner to the Penguins in the process, and yet Jarry has been borderline unplayable in Edmonton with an .858 SV% and -1.04 5v5 GSAx. Meanwhile, Ingram (whom they got for nothing) hasn’t blown the doors off, but he’s been solid enough to give Edmonton a chance every night.
Kris Knoblauch announced last month that Ingram was the team’s number-one goalie down the stretch, and he held down the fort to get the Oilers back into the playoffs, so it’s hard to see a world where he isn’t the Game 1 starter. That said, they gave up a lot to acquire Jarry, and he has two years left on his contract, while Ingram is a pending UFA. Does Edmonton double down on its investment and go with Jarry instead?
For the Ducks, it’s a much more obvious answer, as Lukas Dostal has become the team’s de facto starter after usurping John Gibson over the course of the last few years. But in his first season as “the guy” in Anaheim, he’s struggled a bit more, or at least he wasn’t bordering on elite like he was last season.
However, Dostal is still far better than what Edmonton can provide in net in this series, and it’s possible that this disparity could tip the scales a bit less in favour of the Oilers, as up front they are a far better and more experienced team. But that also means Ingram or Jarry just need to be good enough to get the job done, while it feels like the Ducks will need a bit more from Dostal to win this series.
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