Is Martin St. Louis’ job safe with Canadiens? It may come down to goaltending

After a hot start, the Montreal Canadiens’ season has taken a turn for the worst in recent weeks. Even after Thursdays’ win, they sit tied for the last Eastern Conference Wildcard spot. The Canadiens’ play has started to cause panic among the ever emotional Montreal locals. 

A lot of heat has come the way of head coach Martin St. Louis and whether he is the right man for the job. St. Louis, who was hired four years ago, has often been criticized for his lack of structure; his individual coaching of the Canadiens’ younger, skilled forwards has been viewed as his strong suit. 

I took in two Canadiens games versus the St. Louis Blues and Tampa Bay Lightning live at the Bell Centre during the last week. I thought the Canadiens forechecked very hard and put pressure on opposing defensemen, forcing quick decisions and trying to make turnovers. But in doing so, it leaves broken neutral zone coverage – something the Lightning capitalized on early in the game with back to back breakaway tallies. Additionally, while the Canadiens can establish a strong offensive cycle, their lack of size up front makes it tough for them to penetrate the middle of the ice. 

The average shelf life for a coach is not long these days; with St. Louis passing the four-year mark, it is fair to wonder if he could be in trouble should the season continue to spiral. I will say that I have not heard any noise about the job security of the 2024 Jack Adams Award finalist. Additionally, it is important to note that a coaching change in Montreal is not as easy as anywhere else, as having a french-speaking bench boss is an unwritten rule; the candidate pool drastically shrinks based just on that. 

I had thought about former Dallas Stars head coach Pete DeBoer, who is preparing for his role on Team Canada’s coaching staff at the upcoming Olympics. DeBoer has historically coached defensively sound teams and certainly has the pedigree of a “win now” coach who could, theoretically, guide a rebuilding team in their next organizational phase. This is a moot point though, as the language hurdle prohibits DeBoer from being a candidate. 

Joel Bouchard was once in the Canadiens’ system as the head coach of the AHL’s Laval Rocket. While he is a solid candidate on paper, his dual role as head coach and GM of the Syracuse Crunch (Lightning’s AHL affiliate) is a nice gig that I would imagine is tough to give up. 

I asked several league executives about where the Canadiens are at and whether a coaching change could be in the cards. The absence of top-four defenseman Kaiden Guhle was also specifically pointed out by one Eastern Conference executive. Speaking with one Central Division source, St. Louis’s ability to understand skilled players like Cole Caufield, Ivan Demidov and Lane Hutson is an attribute a lot of coaches still struggle with.

So if not the coaching, what is the solution for Montreal’s struggles? The main reasoning from all three executives came back to the same thing: goaltending. 

I reached out to an Atlantic Division coach – who also sung the praises of St. Louis and his work with the Canadiens going back to last season – about this. This was the response, “Really hard to evaluate when you have bad goaltending. More of a factor night in and night out than ever before. Quite honestly most nights the best goalie wins with the parity in this league.”

Montembeault, 29, has had a major fall from grace this season. After he made Team Canada at last year’s 4 Nation Faceoff, Montembeault’s game has completely cratered, ranking bottom-10 in goals saved above expected among 80 goaltenders to play in the NHL this season, per moneypuck.com. 

Dobes, 24, has seen his play slide as well. Ranking 30th from the bottom in GSAE, he hasn’t been consistent enough to stabilize the Montreal crease.

Following the recall of blue-chip goaltending prospect Jacob Fowler, perhaps there is a similar belief in the Montreal front office, too. The Canadiens’ goaltending was in desperate need of a shot in the arm. The combined (poor) play of goaltenders Jakub Dobes and Samuel Montembeault left GM Kent Hughes no choice but to make a dramatic move. And Fowler provided exactly the lift the team was looking for Thursday night, stopping 36 shots, leading the Habs to a 4-2 win over the Pittsburgh Penguins.

Time will tell what comes for the Montreal goaltending scene, but that is their main point of concern. Until they get adequate goaltending, it is too early to make significant changes in other areas of the organisation. The question now is whether or not there is an in-house solution in the short term to rectify the problem. If not, does Hughes explore external options?

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