Diagnosing Jacob Markstrom: Why has the Calgary Flames’ goalie fallen off a cliff?

Credit: © Danny Wild-USA TODAY Sports

Think you know sports? PointsBet Canada is live in Ontario!

_____

Coming off the 2021-22 NHL season where Jacob Markstrom posted nine shutouts and a .922 save percentage for the Calgary Flames, I don’t think anyone expected the type of regression we’ve seen so far this year.

Markstrom has an .892 save percentage in 34 games. He’s gone 13-13-5 and has yet to record a shutout during the 2022-23 campaign.

The big netminder from Gävle, Sweden is in a funk. Markstrom hasn’t won a game since Jan. 6. And he’s allowed nine goals in his past two games.

So what’s up with Markstrom? Is it just confidence? Technique? The team in front of him?

Like most players that aren’t playing up to their potential, it’s a little bit of everything. I watched every goal Markstrom has given up this season, and I can say unequivocally that the Flames tend to give up catastrophic chances against.

Many goals came off odd-man rushes and backdoor plays that Markstrom really couldn’t have done much about. And I also think Calgary hasn’t been great in front of its own net. Opposing players haven’t been boxed out. Sticks haven’t been tied up. And too often, Flames players have been caught standing directly in front of Markstrom, obscuring his line of sight.

I’ve just made a lot of excuses for the Flames goaltender. But I do think there are a few key areas that Markstrom needs to clean up. Regardless of how Calgary is playing in front of him, it’s up to Markstrom to find a way to improve upon his .892 save percentage.

WHERE PUCKS ARE GOING IN

Here’s the good news: Markstrom doesn’t have a weakness to his blocker or glove side. So it’s not as if opponents are tearing him to shreds in a certain location.

The relatively equal distribution of goals by location is a plus for Markstrom. But I do find the number of five-hole goals to be concerning. Markstrom has allowed 10 goals between his legs – really high for an NHL goaltender midway through the season.

By comparison, his goalie partner, Dan Vladar, hasn’t allowed any along the ice between the wickets. But Vladar has been vulnerable high glove side. There’s always a tradeoff.

WHY MARKSTROM IS LOSING

It’s pretty simple: the Flames can’t score when Markstrom plays. Since Nov. 25, he’s lost 13 games. Calgary has scored just 21 times during that span, an average of 1.6 goals per game.

But Markstrom also has a nagging habit of allowing a goal early. Good goal, bad goal – it doesn’t matter. Playing from behind doesn’t equal winning hockey. Markstrom is averaging a goal against within the first six shots of the game. That needs to change.

There hasn’t been any drastic technical change to his game this season. And I don’t think Markstrom’s woes are related to confidence. He knows he can be a top-flight goaltender. If anything, I think Markstrom is guilty of trying too hard sometimes.

The Calgary netminder stands 6-foot-6, which is undoubtedly to his benefit. But size only works when it’s maximized. And when Markstrom starts pushing the envelope in terms of depth and explosiveness, holes tend to appear. Hence the high number of five-hole goals that he’s allowed. Which brings me to my first observation.

A TENDENCY TO REACH

Big goaltenders grow up with the luxury of long legs. They can easily cover the bottom of the net without having to push very far. But as they get older and move up the ranks, just reaching isn’t enough to keep the puck out of the net. The game moves laterally way too fast.

Markstrom is a great athlete. He can be extremely explosive. But there are times when I think he defaults to the old ‘big man’ habit of reaching.

On the first goal against, Markstrom reads the shot going to the far post. Without much time to react, he lunges with the left half of his body. This explosive movement opens up the five-hole, where the puck goes in.

Markstrom’s frustration is obvious. He knows a simple push to the middle of the net would have made the save. He needed to bring his back leg. Instead, he guessed on the shot location and decided to reach.

The second goal is similar in that, once again, Markstrom fails to get his entire body across in time. While I do think he was caught off guard by the second shot, Markstrom still should have pushed hard to the far post directly after the initial save and sealed the ice.

REBOUND CONTROL

It’s not the quantity of rebounds Markstrom gives up. It’s the quality. Markstrom is actually pretty tidy when it comes to controlling the puck. According to moneypuck.com, the Flames netminder ranks 22nd best in rebounds per save among NHL goalies that have played more than 10 games.

But Markstrom has a tendency to allow dangerous rebounds, particularly when he gets flat to the goal line. Whether in reverse VH, or playing a shot down the wing, Markstrom can get into trouble when he doesn’t stay square.

TOO LOW, TOO WIDE

When the puck is at a distance, Markstrom is pretty diligent about maintaining a high, relatively narrow stance. But as the opposition approaches – especially on breakaways – the Flames backstop will get progressively lower and wider in his stance.

I think NHL teams have clued in on this tendency. Most of the goals Markstrom has allowed this year on breakaways have come in the upper half of the net. I’m sure every team has it in their pre-scout. And even then, any player approaching the Flames net with his head up is going to see plenty of space upstairs.

Markstrom’s wide stance also hurts his mobility when defending against odd-man rushes. Once he sets his edges into the ice, it’s very difficult for Markstrom to get a strong push laterally.

Two-on-one rush chances against aren’t typically saves a coach expects a goaltender to make. And it’s going to be very hard for Markstrom to adjust his technique to a narrower stance. I had the same problem and was never able to fully correct it. But I wouldn’t count Markstrom out. He’s made significant changes and upgrades to his game over the years and can do it again.

LINGERING IN REVERSE VH

With Markstrom’s size, he can afford to stay in the RVH post-integration longer than a smaller goalie can. But that doesn’t give him license to be stagnant in it. He still needs to be ready to react and make saves while in RVH.

There are times when Markstrom will stay on his knees too long, or he’ll drop into RVH prematurely. Either way, I think he’s down more often than he needs to be. I’d like to see him be a little more patient on his edges. Markstrom takes up so much of the net in his basic stance, and it gives him a chance to be reactive. The same can’t be said when he’s down in the butterfly or RVH, when Markstrom occasionally defaults to blocking.

RETREATING ON SCREEN SHOTS

The Flames have allowed a pile of goals with traffic in front of their net. Tipped shots, screens, deflections: Calgary has fallen victim to them all. But I did notice something about Markstrom that surprised me: he occasionally sags back towards the goal line when there’s heavy traffic present in front of him.

It’s something I was guilty of early in my career when I was with the Tampa Bay Lightning. My first few games I had no problem standing at the top of my crease. But as goals mounted, I lost confidence. Without even knowing, I started to retreat towards the goal line.

I saw Markstrom get burned by it a couple times. As he moved backwards, scoring lanes opened up. So even though I don’t think confidence is much of an issue for Markstrom, this might be one situation where it does play a factor. Simply put: I don’t think Markstrom trusts his teammates.

THE OCCASIONAL HEAD-SCRATCHER

I maintain that Markstrom’s season has not been as bad as many people think. But it’s hard to make that argument when goals are scored that cannot be explained.

There’s no way around it: Markstrom has made some questionable decisions this year with his aggressiveness out of the net. He’s had a flying pokecheck go terribly wrong and allowed a clean floater from the blueline.

Did these types of mistakes happen last season? They sure did. But Markstrom had a Calgary team in front of him that could score. He doesn’t have that luxury now.

Can Markstrom play better? Absolutely. He’s still one of the most talented puck-stoppers in the world. And even though his .892 save percentage is well off his career mark of .910, Markstrom is still averaging fewer than three goals against per game.

The hard part for the Flames is that time is not on their side. If the Stanley Cup playoffs started tomorrow, Calgary wouldn’t make it. The team sits third in the Western Conference Wildcard race. The Flames need better everything. But they really need the Vezina Trophy-finalist version of Markstrom as soon as possible.