Don’t look too deeply into NHL rookie preseason performances

Steven Ellis
Steven Ellis(sellishockey)
Sep 26, 2025, 10:30 EDTUpdated: Sep 25, 2025, 16:12 EDT
Matthew Schaefer (Steven Ellis/Daily Faceoff)
Credit: Matthew Schaefer (Steven Ellis/Daily Faceoff)

It’s easy to get lost in the hype of major preseason performances.

Most fans haven’t tuned into a hockey game of any kind in months. The diehards have spent the past 150+ days debating line combos, power-play units, goalie splits, you name it. So the second anything resembling an NHL game occurs, it’s easy to get so excited and overanalyze just a bit.

Especially when it comes to rookie performances. No team, especially at this point in the extended preseason, puts out anything resembling a full, normal lineup. Coaches will sprinkle in their stars every now and then, but Connor McDavid certainly isn’t playing seven exhibition games before starting the grind.

The preseason is best for experimenting, especially with depth players. Losing 5-1 to a team that’s projected to finish near the bottom of the standings isn’t life and death. And, in reality, massive preseason performances from prospects, no matter their level, are mostly meaningless.

In 2023-24, Zach Benson and Matt Coronato led the way with seven points in six preseason games. Both have become solid NHLers – but neither received a single vote in the Calder Trophy fight. Last year, Danil Gushchin, Samuel Honzek, Matvei Michkov, Logan Stankoven, Carter Yakemchuk, Patrick Giles and Rutger McGroarty had between six and nine points. Michkov and Stankoven had solid rookie campaigns, while the rest either spent the majority of the year in the AHL or, in Yakemchuk’s case, were sent back to junior.

Historically, winning the preseason rookie scoring race hasn’t translated into rookie of the year success. Since the dawn of the salary-cap era, not a single Calder winner has led rookies in preseason scoring in their first try. The closest was Michkov, who had seven points in four games in a leading role with Philadelphia. Lane Hutson ultimately won the Calder, but Michkov started the year off as well as any rookie in recent memory. Hutson, meanwhile, had two assists in three games.

The NHL has publicly available preseason stats dating back to 2005-06. Since then, Brandon Bochenski (2005), Dustin Penner (2006), Chris Conner (2007), Mikhail Grabovski (2008), Viktor Stalberg (2009), Tanner Pearson (2014), Andreas Athanasiou (2015), Kenny Agostino (2016), Kailer Yamamoto (2018) and Klim Kostin (2019) have all taken home the top spot.

It’s absolutely fine to be hyped about your team’s young stars. It’s encouraged, really. This is all for fun. But it’s just best to temper expectations heading into the regular season.

Take Matthew Schaefer’s debut, for example. Given he only played a handful of exhibition games in 2025 as a whole, it was so nice to see him thrive in his first “NHL” game. Especially in overtime – you’ve likely seen that incredible backcheck against Matvei Michkov after nearly scoring at the other end.

It looked remarkable, absolutely. However, some context is needed – Michkov was nearing the end of a long shift during 3-on-3 overtime. It was then preceded by a poor line change, and that’s not to mention that giveaway to Jack Nesbitt earlier on. Neither lineup was close to NHL-caliber, either.

The individual clips look great, and Schaefer clearly has a bright future ahead. But some solid shifts in preseason games are just that – solid shifts in preseason games. That’s not to say Schaefer won’t be a serious contender for the Calder Trophy – he will. However, a good exhibition game or two doesn’t necessarily mean things will translate into success over the course of an 82-game season. Don’t forget that injuries and mono limited Schaefer to just 30 games in 2024-25 and none in the second half. There’s a lot of catching up to do, and that proved true throughout various moments against Philadelphia.

Is Schaefer NHL-ready? Absolutely. Are there going to be growing pains? Abso-even-more-lutely.

Another recent example: Tij Iginla of the Utah Mammoth. Many have fallen in love with his pace of play and his quick hands, especially in the offensive zone. But a lack of pure strength against NHLers has been clearly shown, and he missed most of 2024-25 due to injury. For as good a prospect as he is, he needs time. A couple of solid preseason games shouldn’t accelerate his development timeline.

It’s a small sample size, but that’s partly the point. The preseason, as a whole, is too short and ineffective to get a good read on what a rookie is capable of. It’s all about getting your legs back and avoiding injuries. Rookies are often playing elevated roles, which could skew evaluations.

This logic primarily applies for high-end performances – players scoring 5+ goals over a two-week period. The more sustainable performances, though, often come from players with bottom-six-type situations. Fraser Minten, for example, filled Toronto’s fourth-line center role perfectly two years ago and was able to start the season in the NHL. He played well enough in that role during camp that it made sense to keep him around. Someone like Giles going on a scoring tear is a lot less sustainable because he was never going to play big minutes in the NHL (he had one goal in 17 NHL games between Florida and San Jose last year).

The takeaway? It’s fun watching prospects taking part in preseason games, especially if it’s their first time. But the results can be deceiving. Please, for the sake of your mental health, just breathe, and be realistic.

Or not. It’s hockey. It’s all about having fun. You decide.

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