Erik Karlsson is back – and having one of the best offensive seasons since The Great Depression

Paul Pidutti (@AdjustedHockey)
Paul Pidutti (@AdjustedHockey)
Erik Karlsson is back – and having one of the best offensive seasons since The Great Depression

It was May 2021. The pandemic had limited the NHL schedule to 56 games, and Erik Karlsson had just wrapped up another frustrating season. If his future as an elite defenseman wasn’t officially dead, he could surely hear the Grim Reaper’s icy fingers typing up his hockey obituary.

After years of debilitating injuries zapping his trademark mobility, Karlsson seemed an old and broken 30 years old. He managed just 22 points, his status as the NHL’s highest-paid defender only amplifying the mediocrity. Worse yet, his San Jose Sharks were a miserable outfit, finishing 15 points back of a playoff spot in the makeshift West Division.

The fresh start in the Bay Area had failed. One of the game’s greatest talents was finished. About that…

Guess who’s back? Back again.
Erik’s back, tell a friend.

Shown above is Karlsson’s Adjusted Pace card, a visual that illustrates his full-season point pace in a neutral scoring climate.

At age 25, the then-Senators defenseman finished fourth in NHL scoring – a breathtaking accomplishment by a breathtaking player. As major injuries limited both his performance and his attendance, Karlsson’s production took a tumble. It happens. A superstar declining over time is far from headline news. But no one could predict hockey’s best puck mover would fall so fast and far, nosediving to an adjusted 36-point pace before his 30th birthday.

In a sobering reminder of how quickly the physically gifted can break down, Bobby Orr hadn’t played a full season in six years at Karlsson’s current age.

Yet against all odds, the proud and defiant Swede gradually worked his way back to a surgically repaired version of full health. More impressively, against all aging curves, he’s had his best offensive performance yet in his age-32 season.

Greatest Offensive Seasons by Defensemen

As part of our 2022-23 season wrap up, we’re placing the year’s greatest performances in proper historical context. It feels like Karlsson is having an all-time offensive season. But with scoring rising steadily for the last eight seasons, let’s bring in adjusted scoring to help us calibrate EK’s feat.

Listed below are the top 10 adjusted scoring seasons by a defenseman since the 1967 expansion (left) and in the salary cap era (right).

Call it a comeback. Call it a return to full health. Call it witchcraft. Call it a hyper-skilled player adapting to a more open NHL.

Whatever you decide to call it, Erik Karlsson has had the greatest point-producing season of the salary cap era by a defenseman. To take it further, it’s the single best era-adjusted output for anyone not named Bobby Orr or Paul Coffey since The Great Depression.

When looking at all other 32-year-old defensemen, Karlsson’s shocking 97 adjusted points smokes the field. Brian Leetch’s 85 AdPTS in 2000-01 is a distant second place, followed by Coffey’s 70. As for other Hall of Fame offensive blueliners at his age? Nicklas Lidstrom, 69. Ray Bourque, 66. Doug Harvey, 63. Denis Potvin, 46. Orr’s last NHL game had come two years earlier.

While the Sharks’ outlook remains bleak, Karlsson’s all-world play this year has been a shining light both in San Jose and across the league.

Norris Trophy

With the PHWA signing, sealing and delivering their yearly award ballots by the start of next week, let’s focus our attention on the Norris Trophy. Karlsson remains the strong betting favorite. Of all the major awards, however, the Norris routinely elicits the most contentious opinions. Going back 11 years to when he first entered the award debates in Ottawa, Karlsson has been a lightning rod for dissenting opinions on what makes a great defenseman.

By definition, it goes to “the defense player who demonstrates throughout the season the greatest all-round ability in the position.” Of course, the itch in the gitch of any Karlsson discussion is in the name of the position he plays – defenseman. Defense, man.

Now, Karlsson is no defensive stalwart. He’s quite happy to trade chances. By most advanced measures, he’s right near the top of the NHL at generating offense, and near the bottom at allowing it. Except in rare instances, elite scoring is a prerequisite for Norris consideration. Right or wrong, Karlsson has likely dominated offense so significantly that the other side of the puck won’t matter.

If there were an Art Ross Trophy for top scoring defenseman, Karlsson would be on the verge of winning his fifth – a feat bested only by Coffey and Red Kelly (eight times), and Orr (7).

Consider the following:

  • Karlsson leads defensemen in even-strength points (73) by a whopping 24 points. No defensemen has reached 60 points at even-strength in 37 years.
  • Karlsson’s 73 even-strength points are tied with Nathan MacKinnon for most in the NHL. This is one more than Connor McDavid. Umm, can we check that?! [… inaudible whispering]. It’s true.
  • Karlsson leads all defensemen in points (98), 23 more than runners-up Quinn Hughes and Dougie Hamilton.
  • Karlsson leads all defensemen in even-strength goals (19), five more than Vince Dunn in second place.
  • Karlsson is third in average ice-time, an incredible feat considering his medical history, age, and fact he isn’t used in shorthanded situations.
  • Karlsson leads the Sharks in scoring by 32 points. Reminder: he is a 32-year-old defenseman.

Of course, there’s more to hockey than scoring, but holy smokes, that’s dominant scoring.

Karlsson is no stranger to the Norris. He’s a two-time winner, a two-time runner-up, and earned votes for eight straight years in his 20s. A third Norris would put him in exclusive company, joining only eight others in the award’s 70-year history: Orr (8); Harvey, Lidstrom (7); Bourque (5); Chris Chelios, Coffey, Pierre Pilote, Potvin (3). These are the who’s who of the sport’s blueline community. While Karlsson is already a HHOF lock, a third Norris on his mantle would further distinguish his all-time greatness.

Closing Thoughts

Erik Karlsson’s career was sinking. He endured major surgeries on his Achilles, groin, and forearm. His unmatched physical gifts were taken from him over a hellish half-decade. His contract was in the conversation for worst in hockey.

At 32 years old, he rose from the ashes to have one of the greatest offensive seasons in the timeline of the NHL. His 2022-23 scoring feats are so historically significant they are likely to land him a third Norris Trophy – five years after he last got even down-ballot votes. His improbable resurrection should go down as one of the most celebrated comebacks in hockey’s long and rich history.

Follow along with the series — 2022-23’s Greatest Performances:

Paul Pidutti is the creator of the Adjusted Hockey project, which brings context to hockey statistics. His Hockey Hall of Fame methodology, the Pidutti Point Share (PPS) system, is the first comprehensive measure of HHOF worthiness. You can find his work on Twitter (@AdjustedHockey) and adjustedhockey.com.

Stats through April 7, 2023; Adjusted Pace stats from Adjusted Hockey; all other data from Hockey Reference

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