Fall Frauds: Which NHL franchises fool their fans the most?

Oct 22, 2025, 13:00 EDTUpdated: Oct 22, 2025, 13:20 EDT

Credit: Oct 19, 2025; Detroit, Michigan, USA; Detroit Red Wings center Dylan Larkin (71) celebrates with his teammates after scoring a goal against the Edmonton Oilers during the second period at Little Caesars Arena. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-Imagn Images

As the leaves change color every autumn, the start of a new NHL season brings hope.

Despite piles of predictions and pundits, every team’s record starts 0-0-0 in October. It’s why we watch the games. Whether it’s breakout years, unforeseen chemistry or hot goaltending, teams can surprise us in the opening weeks and months. Of course, aging stars, lack of chemistry and bad goaltending also lurk in NHL rinks, ready to derail premature plans of Stanley Cup parades.

But regression to the mean — both positive and negative — is a time-tested phenomenon. It’s permanently on-call, waiting patiently to crash the party, returning teams back to reality over an 82-game schedule.

With that in mind, we’re looking for the franchises whose starts routinely fool their fans: the fall frauds and sleepy starters.

The Method

Our approach to franchise fraud detection will be straightforward. We’re going to cover the last four completed NHL seasons: the 2021-22 to 2024-25 campaigns. Going any further back would bring in pandemic-shortened schedules and feature increasingly fewer players from current rosters.

From these last four seasons, a team’s average point pace over its first 20 games will be established. For context, the 20-game mark in this year’s calendar is mid-to-late November. That’s just enough time to get fans excited that this season might be different than expected. Each team’s performance over its first 20 games will be compared to how it performed over the rest of the season (i.e., its final 62 games).

From the results of each franchise’s first 20 games above, you might already see some surprising outliers. A quick scan identifies several teams that collapsed or leveled up in certain seasons. On top of regression, a lot can happen over the NHL’s final five months — major injuries, coaching shakeups, prospect call-ups, and a trade deadline that often fundamentally shifts a roster based on whether it’s a buyer or seller.

📉 The 5 Biggest Fall Frauds

Now that we have our expectations set, we’ll see how teams performed relative to their 20-game starts. Our top five fall frauds averaged a drop of at least 9.9 standings points per 82 games.

#5. Detroit Red Wings

First 20 Games: 90-point pace
Rest of Season: 80-point pace
Dropoff: 9.9 points

Uh, oh. Detroit, currently 5-1-0, is on an early-season heater. Five straight wins against tough opponents has restored great Yzer-vibes to Hockeytown. But we’ve seen this story before. Twice, in fact. The 2022 Wings started 11-5-4 but finished a distant 12 points from the postseason. The 2023 Wings were a wagon into December before a soul-crushing 2-8-1 stretch. Now a decade into a rebuild, Detroit faithful believe this group is different — young talent ready for prime time, more depth, better goaltending. While that’s been said annually for a while, the Red Wings’ second half will be fascinating. Will they finally slay their regular season dragons or be fall frauds for a third time in five years?

#4. New York Rangers

First 20 Games: 112-point pace
Rest of Season: 102-point pace
Dropoff: 10.2 points

There’s a strong argument that hot starts in 2021 and 2023 cost a pair of respected coaches their jobs after only two seasons. The parallels run strikingly similar. In 2021, Gerald Gallant joined a franchise that hadn’t won a playoff round in four years. But his 17-4-3 start on Broadway quickly set the bar at championship or bust. Despite debuting as a Jack Adams Award finalist and reaching the Conference Finals, a first-round exit the following season got Gallant turfed. Peter Laviolette had an eerily comparable arc: an 18-4-1 start in 2023; Presidents’ Trophy; Conference Finals appearance; fired the following spring. Maybe new bench boss Mike Sullivan is on to something with the Rangers’ lifeless start this October…

#3. Winnipeg Jets

First 20 Games: 112-point pace
Rest of Season: 100-point pace
Dropoff: 12.2 points

The Jets’ scorching but unsustainable 17-3-0 start last season is a big part of its placement here. Fueled by Connor Hellebuyck’s Hart Trophy-winning performance, Winnipeg remained a 108-point team over the balance of the schedule. But strong starts aren’t new to Jets’ fans. The 2022 squad didn’t sustain their impressive start either, regressing by 21 points and squeaking into the playoffs. While building a handsome standings buffer is always the goal, teams can also peak too early or stumble over the weight of heightened expectations over a long season. Despite the NHL’s third-best early results over the last four years, Winnipeg has won a single round (on a miracle play, seconds before elimination).

#2. Vegas Golden Knights

First 20 Games: 114-point pace
Rest of Season: 100-point pace
Dropoff: 13.9 points

Vegas fans, we feel for you. In eight full seasons of existence, the Golden Knights have never played below a 93-point pace. Worse yet, the franchise has made seven postseasons, won twelve rounds, and lifted the Stanley Cup. On top of all of that frustration, they start hot (114-point pace on average through 20 games) and settle for being just a boring 100-point team over the last three-quarters of the schedule. Sad times on The Strip. Vegas is up to its old tricks again this season — a 5-0-2 start. If you’re going to be a fall fraud, this is how you do it — play at an unsustainably great level, ease off the gas with a playoff spot assured, add to the roster at the deadline, and have the confidence to flip a switch come playoff time.

#1. New Jersey Devils

First 20 Games: 104-point pace
Rest of Season: 81-point pace
Dropoff: 22.2 points

Last — and certainly least — when it comes to crashing back to reality is New Jersey. Their 22-point average drop in performance after the 20-game mark is inconceivable. In the spirit of trick-or-treating, Devils’ fans do not only get tricked every year, GM Tom Fitzgerald has taken it further and personally made them smell his feet. That smell is mid-season collapse. Let’s review the disappointment:

2021-22: the biggest individual season flop in our four-year window went 90-point pace to 54-point pace
2022-23: spicy 21-4-1 start; fell into 3-8-2 tailspin; recovered to post 112 points and won a playoff round
2023-24: 98-point pace into the New Year but finished with just 81 points
2024-25: 24-11-3 start; limped to a 91-point finish; lost first round postseason series (4-1)

The injury histories of Jack Hughes and Dougie Hamilton have been key drivers of the Devils’ inability to stay competitive for a full season. It’s a roster only now building up sufficient depth to weather the storm of key player absences. Like clock work, Sheldon Keefe’s crew is off to a strong 5-1-0 start this October. But it might be wise to stay on edge a little longer given the franchise’s history as the NHL’s #1 fall fraud.

📈 The 5 Biggest Sleepy Starters

There is a different kind of fall fraud, however… the better kind. These franchises hit the snooze a few times in autumn, taking a while to shake off the summer’s rust and only realize their potential come winter. The kind of teams you hope to get early in the schedule and not when they’ve found a late-season heater.

A 28-point improvement for the Ottawa Senators? This is by far the biggest jump by any franchise. In fact, Ottawa owns the #2, #4, and #8 largest in-year rises of the 128 seasons played in our window. Last season, the Senators were a lifeless 8-11-1 on Nov. 23 and went bananas after: 37-19-6. That’s a 70-point lottery team that morphed into a 106-point juggernaut. Less talented Ottawa teams had similarly potent recoveries in 2021 and 2022. This year’s group is a predictable 2-4-1 with regulation losses to Nashville, Buffalo, and the Islanders already on the books. Will these fall imposters find their way? Recent history says yes.

Moving west, the Edmonton Oilers (+20 point increase) are the only other early-year underachievers in Ottawa’s galaxy. The trend is understandable given they’ve had a number of deep postseason runs in recent years. The 2023-24 Oilers were the single biggest fall dogs of the last four years — a 62-point pace after 20 games followed by a 118-point pace afterward. Bet on the Oilers (3-4-0, only nine 5-on-5 goals scored in seven games) to find their mojo soon this year.

Rounding out the top five cardiac kids: St. Louis (+12), Vancouver (+12), and Nashville (+11). Vancouver’s a notable inclusion as last season’s Canucks crashed after an excellent start.

Closing Thoughts

The saying, “It’s not where you start, it’s where you finish,” rings true. Canadian sports fans are watching this play out in real time with the Toronto Blue Jays’ electric season. In the ultimate sleepy start, the Jays were 26-28 in late May. A suggested spot in the World Series wouldn’t have been taken seriously. But a 68-40 (.629 winning percentage) bender down the stretch… and here we are.

The NHL’s franchise starts vs. finishes are plotted below. Most teams’ performances early in the year aren’t too far off how things play out over the balance of the schedule. But there are always exceptions.

Fans of the Devils, Red Wings, and Jets, for example, have been fooled before. Their teams have gone trick over treat. On the flip side, the Oilers and Senators have offered their fans some candy after sloppy starts. It’s the thrill of following a team — for better and for worse.

Who will be this season’s fall frauds and sleepy starters? Stay tuned.

Data from Hockey-Reference and NHL.com

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