Fantasy Hockey 2025-26 – Brock Seguin’s ADPs to Avoid
Draft season is all about finding value, but just as important is avoiding landmines. Every year, a handful of players get pushed up draft boards by hype, name value, or recency bias, leaving fantasy managers paying a premium that doesn’t match the likely return.
In this series, our five Fantasy Hockey analysts highlight their ADPs to Avoid for the 2025-26 season. These players are coming off the board too soon relative to their expected production, team situation, or just better players going later than them.
That doesn’t mean these players are “bad.” Some will still have strong seasons, but at their current cost, they pose more risk than reward. The goal is to help you maximize value by steering clear of inflated price tags and focusing on players who are better fits where they’re being drafted.
MORE ADPs to Avoid:
- Beebs Bondy’s ADPs to Avoid
- Dylan Berthiaume’s ADPs to Avoid
- Matt Larkin’s ADPs to Avoid
- Nick Szeman’s ADPs to Avoid
Ilya Sorokin | New York Islanders | G | ADP: 59.1
There’s no denying that the 2022 and 2023 versions of Ilya Sorokin were elite, but the last two seasons have told a different story. Among the 52 goalies with at least 50 starts in that span, Sorokin ranks tied for 11th in SV% (.908) and just 28th in GAA (2.86), respectable numbers, but not top-10 fantasy goalie territory.
The bigger issue is context. Goaltending value in fantasy is as much about team environment as individual talent, and Sorokin’s situation is rough. The Islanders ranked tied for 27th in goals per game (2.71) last season and finished in the bottom-third of the league in scoring chances against per 60 at 5v5. They don’t score, they don’t defend particularly well, and they traded away their best defenseman this offseason.
Sportsbooks project the Islanders for just 85.0 points this year, tied for 22nd overall and 11th in the Eastern Conference. That makes it difficult to project Sorokin for 30+ wins. At a fifth-round ADP, he’s a reach when you can find similar production from Linus Ullmark nearly 30 picks later.
Jakob Chychrun | Washington Capitals | D | ADP: 68.1
Jakob Chychrun brings legitimate goal-scoring upside from the blueline; his 34 goals over the last two seasons rank tied for third among defensemen. But his profile remains one-dimensional. He’s never been a strong source of assists, and last year’s production was boosted by a career-high 11.2 SH% and a lofty 13.6 on-ice SH%. Both numbers are due for regression, which likely pulls him closer to 15 goals than 20 in 2025-26, while leaving his assist totals underwhelming.
There’s nothing wrong with the talent or the shooting upside, but a sixth-round ADP is steep. To take Chychrun there, you’re passing on high-upside forwards like Seth Jarvis, Lucas Raymond, Matvei Michkov, Alex DeBrincat, Dylan Larkin, and Matthew Knies. In that range, the opportunity cost is too high, making Chychrun a reach at his current price.
Connor Bedard | Chicago Blackhawks | C/RW | ADP: 52.6
Connor Bedard’s sophomore season was a step back from his rookie year, but the reality is likely somewhere in between. His outrageous 91.9 IPP at 5v5 in Year 1 was never sustainable and came back down to 68.6 last season. More concerning, though, was the dip in shot volume, from 3.0 SOG/gm as a rookie to just 2.4 SOG/gm in Year 2.
That shot volume will be the key to whether Bedard can justify this draft cost. At 2.4 shots per game pace, Bedard may struggle to hit 25 goals, making it challenging to justify drafting him ahead of proven 30-goal scorers playing on deeper, more productive teams. Considering the potential regression from his 13.1 on-ice SH% and the lack of support around him, Bedard feels like a risky late-4th/early-5th round investment.
I don’t doubt the talent or the possibility of a third-year leap, but the underlying trends make him a shaky bet at his current ADP.
Dustin Wolf | Calgary Flames | G | ADP: 60.3
Including Dustin Wolf here almost feels like a compliment. My sleeper/breakout pick from last season played so well that he might be overvalued this season. The concern this year isn’t Wolf’s talent, but his environment.
Sportsbooks project the Flames for just 85.0 points, tied for 22nd in the NHL and fifth-worst in the Western Conference. Even if Wolf starts 60 games, it will be tough for him to push for 30 wins on a team with that outlook. When you factor in his current ADP, the opportunity cost stands out: you can find similar, if not better, production from Sam Montembeault nearly 50 picks later.
I like Wolf as a goalie, but his situation keeps him from being a safe bet as a top-10 fantasy option, and he’s currently being drafted as the No.10 goalie off the board.
Lane Hutson | Montreal Canadiens | D | ADP: 46.4
This will feel like a hot take after a 66-point rookie campaign, but there are reasons to be cautious with Lane Hutson. The concern isn’t his playmaking, it’s his goal-scoring upside. Much like Quinn Hughes early in his career, the shot volume simply isn’t there. From November 9 onward, Hutson was on pace for 71 points (per 82 games) but finished with fewer than 100 shots on goal.
If Hutson repeats that kind of volume in 2025-26, he risks being a one-trick fantasy option. Sixty assists from the back end certainly have value, but you can find more well-rounded profiles a round or two later, names like Roman Josi (ADP: 57.6), Shea Theodore (ADP: 62.4), or Jake Sanderson (ADP: 63.9). Spending a fourth-round pick on Hutson also means passing on impact forwards like Martin Necas, which makes his current ADP a tough sell.