Fantasy Hockey 2025-26 – Dylan Berthiaume’s ADPs to Avoid
Draft season is all about finding value, but just as important is avoiding landmines. Every year, a handful of players get pushed up draft boards by hype, name value, or recency bias, leaving fantasy managers paying a premium that doesn’t match the likely return.
In this series, our five Fantasy Hockey analysts highlight their ADPs to Avoid for the 2025-26 season. These players are coming off the board too soon relative to their expected production, team situation, or just better players going later than them.
That doesn’t mean these players are “bad.” Some will still have strong seasons, but at their current cost, they pose more risk than reward. The goal is to help you maximize value by steering clear of inflated price tags and focusing on players who are better fits where they’re being drafted.
MORE ADPs to Avoid:
- Brock Seguin’s ADPs to Avoid
- Beebs Bondy’s ADPs to Avoid
- Matt Larkin’s ADPs to Avoid
- Nick Szeman’s ADPs to Avoid
Alexander Nikishin | Carolina Hurricanes | D | ADP: 103.4
This is by no means a knock on Nikishin’s upside as one of the best defensive prospects in the game. I just can’t bring myself to burn a near top-100 pick on a guy who still has to earn a regular spot in the Hurricanes lineup, let alone any sort of significant power-play time. Don’t get me wrong, his offensive upside is obvious. A blue-liner averaging 15 goals and 52 points across three KHL seasons is no joke, but he is going to have to contend for power-play time with one of the premier specialists in the league in Shayne Gostisbehere, who finished with 23 power-play points a season ago.
Being utilized on the top power-play unit is crucial for defensemen to hold fantasy relevance. There’s only a handful of blue-liners each season that are worth rostering based solely on raw 5v5 production. It’s certainly possible for Nikishin to secure the role as the team’s first-choice power-play quarterback by season’s end, but it could be difficult for you to justify holding onto him in the meantime. To me, his ADP should be closer in line with fellow rookie defensemen Zeev Buium or Sam Rinzel, who are going a full four and five rounds later, respectively. At this point in the draft, I’m happy to let my league mates roll the dice on his upside while I opt for much safer options at the position.
Jesper Bratt | New Jersey Devils | LW/RW | ADP: 37.6
The distinction between bust vs ADP to avoid is really important to highlight here. I love Jesper Bratt’s game. He’s an unbelievable playmaker and will continue to be an elite source of assists this season, but he just doesn’t have the upside I’m looking for with an early fourth-round pick.
Bratt managed just 21 goals last year as the shot volume dropped by 68 shots from the season prior. There really is no room for the ice time to grow, and he’ll be hard-pressed to replicate the power-play production he had a season ago. He finished 16th in the league with 88 points thanks to his 67 helpers, but had just 50 even-strength points. Bratt also finished with 31 secondary assists, the fifth most in the league. Another mark that could see a dropoff this year, considering his 13.4 on ice SH% is due for a little bit of regression.
I think Bratt is a very safe pick. He should finish comfortably around 20 goals and 50 assists, but the ceiling just isn’t there. I don’t think he matches his production from a year ago, let alone improves on it. In the early 4th round, I’d much rather take a shot on someone who has the potential to be an elite goal scorer, like a Tage Thompson or a Clayton Keller. Or opt to build up my goalies or defensemen and target the likes of Brandon Hagel or Adrian Kempe a round or two later. He’s still on my board, but Bratt won’t be in consideration for me at his current ADP of 40.
Noah Dobson | Montreal Canadiens | D | ADP: 81.6
My concerns with Dobson are nothing to do with the player himself but rather the utilization. I don’t expect Dobson’s elite shot volume to go anywhere this season given the amount of minutes he’s likely to absorb, but we already saw what happened last season when he lost power-play usage and finished with just 29 assists.
Lane Hutson showed the value he can provide on the man advantage, and he will rightfully hold down his spot on the top unit coming into the season. Meaning barring an injury to Hutson, Dobson’s only route to meaningful power-play time is if the Canadiens opt to play both blue-liners on the top unit. Just like Nikishin, there is simply way too much uncertainty around Dobson’s power-play usage to justify spending a top 100 pick on him.
I still love the addition of Dobson to this Habs blue-line. He is a fantastic puck-mover and his defensive play has improved mightily in the last couple of seasons. The Islanders averaged just 2.29 xGA per 60 with Dobson on the ice at 5v5 last year. I think the Canadiens will be happy to hand him all the difficult matchups and heavy minutes he can handle at even strength and allow him to take a back seat to Hutson on the power-play. And his fantasy value will suffer as a result.
Logan Thompson | Washington Capitals | G | ADP: 73.7
I pegged Thompson as a breakout last year, and he delivered in a big way, one of fantasy’s unsung heroes with 31 wins in just 42 starts despite sharing the crease with Charlie Lindgren. The problem? He’s now going close to 100 picks earlier, and the outlook isn’t nearly as rosy.
Sportsbooks project the Capitals for 95.5 points, a 15.5-point drop from last season. That projection is tied to expected regression in their offense after leading the NHL with a 12.6 shooting percentage, a rate that’s almost certain to fall. Less goal support, plus a step back in team quality, makes it hard to bank on another 30+ win season.
And then there’s the workload. Washington was committed to a tandem last year, and with Lindgren signing a three-year, $9M extension in March, that split isn’t going away. Thompson’s talent is legit, but in fantasy you need volume, and he’s unlikely to get it.
Spending a sixth or seventh round pick here just doesn’t add up when you can land bigger workloads on comparable teams a few rounds later, names like Jordan Binnington, Linus Ullmark, or Sam Montembeault. Even Jacob Markstrom, going a handful of picks behind, makes more sense. Thompson will be hard-pressed to repeat 31 wins, and at this price, I’ll be passing in every draft.