How much does size matter when trying to win the Stanley Cup?

Matt Larkin
Matt Larkin(MLarkinHockey)
How much does size matter when trying to win the Stanley Cup?
Credit: © Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

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Can a Stanley Cup winner be distilled into a repeatable recipe?

It’s a question I ask every year after the NHL Trade Deadline passes as we reassess the league’s power structure based on which players changed teams. Is there a set list of ingredients a contending team can seek out and sprinkle into one pot every season to ensure a deep playoff run?

Last season, I laid out what I believed was a usable championship recipe by studying the previous 10 Stanley Cup winners. The recipe consisted of seven characteristics that were most common among the champions. It wasn’t as simple as just being good at everything. For instance, there wasn’t a strong correlation at all between having a good power play and winning the Cup, but there was a strong correlation between having a good penalty kill and winning the Cup.

The seven-point formula spat out two teams that checked the most boxes when I applied it last season: The Tampa Bay Lightning, who came to within two wins of a third straight title, and the Calgary Flames, who made it to the second round of the playoffs only to be done in by the sudden collapse of their goaltending. A .500 batting average ain’t bad.

Using the same parameters, which NHL roster has just the right mix of championship material?

Today, we begin a new series by examining the importance of mixing beef into the stew.

Stanley Cup Ingredient #1: Team Weight

It’s no secret playoff hockey is different than regular season hockey. It’s heavier, more of a physical grind, and the calling of penalties tends to relax a bit during close games in the third period. For that reason, heavier clubs – not to be confused with taller clubs, which don’t correlate as much to success – tend to go deeper in the postseason.

Here’s where the past 10 Cup champs rank in average weight, according to the Team Comparison data at Elite Prospects:

SeasonChampionAvg. WeightLeague rank
2012-13Chicago202 lbs22nd
2013-14Los Angeles208 lbs3rd
2014-15Chicago198 lbs28th
2015-16Pittsburgh196 lbs30th
2016-17Pittsburgh195 lbs29th
2017-18Washington203 lbs7th
2018-19St. Louis203 lbs6th
2019-20Tampa Bay203 lbs6th
2020-21Tampa Bay203 lbs2nd
2021-22Colorado198 lbs15th

Stanley Cup correlation: Strong

After the Blackhawks and Penguins won championships with tiny teams, the 2017-18 Capitals shifted the narrative back to heavy hockey, kicking off a trend of four straight years in which one of the biggest teams in the NHL won the Cup. The 2021-22 Avs were the first team to buck that trend since 2016-17, ranking just slightly above average in average weight. Does that mean heavy hockey is out? Too soon to say given four of the past five champs were beefy.

So who are the NHL’s 10 heaviest teams right now?

2022-23 NHL leaders, average team weight

1. Tampa Bay Lightning, 207 lbs
2. New York Islanders, 205 lbs
3. Anaheim Ducks, 204 lbs
4. Edmonton Oilers, 203 lbs
5. Vegas Golden Knights, 203 lbs
6. Calgary Flames, 203 lbs
7. Boston Bruins, 202 lbs
8. Winnipeg Jets, 202 lbs
9. Washington Capitals, 202 lbs
10. Dallas Stars, 201 lbs

I count six locked-in playoff teams and a couple more playoff hopefuls among the league leaders. The Lightning, having been to three straight Finals, have the recipe right and obviously aren’t messing with it, March slump aside. It’s not a surprise to see the dominant Boston Bruins on the list, either. The team that really jumps out to me: the Edmonton Oilers. During Trade Deadline week, they added 6-foot-4, 215-pound Mattias Ekholm to their blueline and 6-foot-6. 209-pound Nick Bjugstad to their forward group. General manager Ken Holland made a point of embracing heavier hockey with his moves. Without diving too deep into whether we think he improved the team enough: the point here is that there’s a strong correlation between team weight and playoff success in the past half decade, and the team with the best skill players on the planet is now also one of the heaviest. Look out for those Oilers in the West.

Next up: Top-10 Scorers

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