If Leafs are forced to retool this season, what would that look like?
If we’re honest? The result was inevitable.
Even when the Toronto Maple Leafs jumped out to a 2-0 lead over the Los Angeles Kings Thursday night, the performance was wobbly. The two goals came on the only four shots Toronto could muster in the first period. The Kings were forechecking tenaciously, swarming the Leafs’ zone, hemming them in, badly outchancing them. It felt like the Kings simply had to keep playing more periods and they’d get rewarded for their effort soon enough.
That’s exactly what happened. The Kings gradually overpowered the Leafs, outshooting them 37-15, doubling them 32-16 in 5-on-5 scoring chances. Alex Laferriere tied the game 3-3 with a deflection of a Brandt Clarke shot 13:10 into the third period, and Quinton Byfield smashed home a one-timer 35 seconds into overtime to seal the Kings’ win. The better team won.
The better team has been beating the Leafs a lot lately – four times in a row, scoring at least four goals in each of those games.
After Thursday’s defeat, the Leafs spoke about seeing “improved” defensive play, but that was denial talking. They were outclassed in pretty much every facet of the game save for goaltending, with third-stringer Dennis Hildeby keeping them alive as long as he could.
The Leafs, their management and their fan base can try not to freak out over the losing streak, pointing to the small sample size, the fact we haven’t reached the U.S. Thanksgiving juncture, the idea that this team will go on a run once it gets healthy. And the team is doing its best to maintain the poker face.
“Well, panic’s never gonna help, but there’s a level of urgency for sure,” Leafs coach Craig Berube told Daily Faceoff. “It’s been there for a bit, but not gonna panic. That doesn’t help anything or anybody.”
“More games that go by, there’s less runway,” said Leafs center John Tavares. “We still have more than half a season to go. We’re not even at the quarter mark yet. So just stay together, stay composed, and know we have to play better. We’ve just got to continue to stay with it.”
But the Leafs’ .500 points percentage (8-8-2) at the 18-game mark is their lowest since the Auston Matthews era began in 2016-17. They allow the most goals per game of any team this season. Their power play and penalty kill sit in the bottom half of the league. They surrender the ninth-most scoring chances per game at 5-on-5. They also can’t get a save; they’ve slipped from third in team save percentage to 26th with Anthony Stolarz struggling and Joseph Woll still out of the lineup. They undeniably have the trappings of a bad hockey team early in 2025-26. Some of us saw this regression coming, not simply because they removed 102-point scorer and two-way maven Mitch Marner from their lineup, but also because their goaltending masked some mediocre play-driving tendencies last season.
Maybe once the injured Matthews (lower body), Stolarz (upper body), Woll (personal), defenseman Chris Tanev (upper body) and center Scott Laughton (upper body) rejoin the lineup, the Leafs look like themselves at full strength and go on a sizzling midseason run. Or maybe GM Brad Treliving pulls off a desperation trade, like the one he’s reportedly pursuing with the Calgary Flames to pry Rasmus Andersson away. But it’s not inconceivable that the turnaround never happens this season, particularly if Matthews’ injury, sustained Tuesday and expected to shelf him a week, becomes a chronic problem that hinders his play like last year’s malady did.
If Toronto doesn’t get the losing under control, a question will soon bubble up: do you have start thinking realistically about a retool scenario if you’re Treliving? Yes, retool. A rebuild would be far too drastic a strategy; the Leafs have William Nylander signed for six more seasons, Matthew Knies for five, John Tavares for three, Auston Matthews for two, plus defensemen Tanev, Morgan Rielly and Jake McCabe for four each. This core could still be a winning one with the proper supporting cast and deployment. But there is recent precedent for teams that simply didn’t have it for a year, cut their losses and bounced back strongly the following season.
The 2017-18 St. Louis Blues were a non-playoff team. They cashed out Paul Stastny at the Trade Deadline and netted a first-round pick. They didn’t blow up their roster but made sure to get something for their best expiring asset. The ensuing summer, they reloaded with the blockbuster Ryan O’Reilly trade and ended up winning the Stanley Cup in 2018-19.
The 2022-23 Washington Capitals saw that they didn’t have a competitive enough team, so they moved Dmitry Orlov, Garnet Hathaway, Marcus Johansson and Lars Eller that winter to replenish their draft-pick cupboard. They were back in the playoffs the following year and won the Metropolitan Division the year after.
So it can be done if you still have enough impactful core players to build around. And if Toronto’s record continues trending poorly into the winter, it won’t have a choice. If Treliving has to walk that path…what would a retool look like for the 2025-26 Maple Leafs? Here’s a list of options, from least to most dramatic.
Trade the expiring assets to recoup some draft picks
The Leafs have no first-, second- or fourth-round pick this year – unless they finish as a bottom-five team in the NHL, in which case the first-rounder they gave the Boston Bruins for Brandon Carlo last year shifts to 2027 (or 2028 if it’s top 10). Toronto also has no 2027 first- or third-rounder. If the playoffs look like a long shot by March, Treliving could try to add arrows back into his quiver.
The Leafs do have a cluster of pending UFAs who carry reasonable cap hits and could benefit contenders as depth pieces. Forward Calle Jarnkrok has looked more like himself this season now that he’s healthy and could help as a penalty killer. If center Laughton can ever string together healthy and/or effective games, he’s a buy low as a scrappy fourth-line center with third-line upside. Big, fast left winger Bobby McMann feels like a piece Toronto would want to keep around, but his specific skill set, coupled with the 20-goal form he flashed in the past, could make him an appealing target.
Trade the 2027 expiring assets as luxury rentals
Doing so would represent a more complicated decision for Treliving, as it would mean removing pieces from a lineup he hopes will be competitive next season. At the same time, the returns for these assets would be larger while simultaneously freeing up cap space for a more aggressive 2026 offseason. That would make the Leafs dangerous given they already project for north of $19 million now, and that’s a weaponizable $19 million given Toronto has no massively expensive free agents to re-sign, even if RFA Nick Robertson has a career year.
Just as the Leafs paid a lot for a big, right-shot defenseman in Carlo last season, the demand for him would remain high this year, even though he’s underachieved as a Leaf. Maybe you don’t replicate the package you gave up for him last year (a first-rounder and prospect Fraser Minten), but Carlo could probably get you back into the first round of the 2026 Draft. Blueliner Simon Benoit had his moments for Toronto in the playoffs last year and brings a punishing physical game that would inspire someone to pay a mid-round pick for him. Nicolas Roy might be the most valuable piece Toronto could dangle; he’s a big, defensively responsible, Stanley-Cup-winning center who could bolster a team’s third line at both ends of the ice.
Make a coaching change
Craig Berube is a polarizing coach and, really, was a polarizing hire. On one hand, he brought the Stanley Cup experience and steely resolve the franchise desperately lacked. The Leafs protected leads much better and played a grittier, more playoff-tailored style under him last season, reaching their deepest juncture of the playoffs since 2001-02. On the other hand: they still melted down when the stakes were highest in Game 7 of the second round at home against the Florida Panthers last spring. They play a simpler north-south game under Berube that sometimes makes them look like a less threatening hockey team, one that has more trouble coming from behind when trailing. Remember the Dubas-Keefe era Leafs, who could regularly fall behind by three goals in a game and simply flick a switch and play like the 1977 Habs for 20 minutes?
Whether it’s because Berube is playing with the pieces Treliving has placed on the board or because Treliving has added pieces to fit Berube’s style, this is the slowest, least dynamic Toronto team of the Matthews era. Berube theoretically should have another full season of runway, but if Treliving is truly aching to turn around this season specifically, he could pivot to someone like Pete DeBoer, whose teams consistently go deep into the postseason and play an aggressive, up-tempo style.
Prey on a thin goalie market and trade Joseph Woll
The Leafs have Stolarz freshly re-signed for four more seasons after this one. Woll is arguably just as important to Toronto’s crease long-term given he’s younger and arguably has a higher ceiling. At the same time, staying healthy has proven extremely difficult for him in his young career (albeit it has for Stolarz as well). If a top contender such as the Edmonton Oilers is desperate enough to solve its crease problems and willing to pay a significant price, do the Leafs listen?
Explore a blockbuster-grade trade in the summer
This scenario doesn’t feel particularly realistic given the paradigm shift already happened last summer with Marner heading to the Vegas Golden Knights. Matthews, Nylander, Knies and Tavares aren’t going anywhere. The likes of Max Domi and Dakota Joshua have weak trade value right now, meaning they wouldn’t return franchise-changing pieces in a deal, and the Leafs might have to attach assets (which they don’t currently have) or retain salary to entice anyone to take those contracts. The only big-ticket players the Leafs could consider trading in a large overhaul scenario would be Morgan Rielly, who is already a depreciating asset at 31 and signed through 2029-30 at $7.5 million annually, and Jake McCabe, whose $4.51-million cap hit is so reasonable that trading him feels like it would hurt Toronto more than help.
So will any of these scenarios play out? Not yet. There’s still time for the Leafs to behave like a contender, whether that means winning their way out of trouble or making a culture-changing win-now trade. But if winter comes with no progress in the standings, the retool approach could come into play.
_____
POST SPONSORED BY bet365
_____