Line Matching: Nov 5th (Free trial)
As a free trial for those that missed the first month, today’s Line Matching will be FREE. To get the Premium package, go HERE – Line Matching articles, access to the Optimizer, and Chat with Josh Harris are all membership options.
NaturalStatTrick has a line stats tool now (AMAZING), so going forward that will be used when there’s a large enough sample.
Edmonton Oilers vs. Detroit Red Wings
| Detroit | Edmonton | Advantage |
| DET1 (Nyquist-Zetterberg-Tatar) | EDM1 (Maroon-McDavid-Draisatl) | EDM1 |
| DET2 (Athanasiou-Larkin-Mantha) | EDM2 (Lucic-RNH-Slepyshev) * | DET2 |
| *Slepyshev got hurt and missed part of the third period in their last game. Make sure to check lines before lock. Conclusion: The second line of the Red Wings has been dynamite in their four games together since Athanasiou came back to the NHL, with 40SF/60 and 22HD chances/60. It’s important to note that that’s a small sample size, but Larkin/Mantha were creating 36SF/60 and 12HDC/60 before AA arrived, and are dominant possession players in their own right. Against an EDM2 line that sits a touch above 50% in every metric but still allows 28SCA/60 and 11HDC/60 (Lucic/RNH), there’s a clear advantage to the young Detroit line. On its face, there’s not much to be said about EDM1 facing DET1: Connor McDavid is leading that line to 40 SCORING CHANCES per 60 minutes (17HDC) which is just a disgusting number – they’ll be highly owned on a four-game slate, and deservedly slow. However, EDM1 also allows 33 shots against per 60, and more importantly they allow 18(!!) high-danger chances against as well. Against a Detroit top line that’s generating 38 shots/60, that could bite them. DET1 and DET2 would be the lower-owned lines from this game, and have almost as much upside as chalky EDM1. |
New York Islanders vs. Colorado Avalanche
| Colorado | NY Islanders | Advantage |
| COL1 (Landeskog-MacKinnon-Rantanen) | NYI1 (Lee-Tavares-Bailey) | NYI1 |
| COL2 (Andrighetto-Duchene-Yakupov) | NYI2 (Ladd-Barzal-Eberle) | NYI2 |
| Conclusion: If you read yesterday’s article – or just watch hockey, you know just how horrible the Avalanche forwards are defensively. It’s just a small sample on COL1, as Landeskog was just moved up to that line a few games ago, but their statistics are disgusting: 38% CF%, 45.63SA/60, 34.98SCA/60, and 15.21HDCA/60. Those numbers aren’t improved with or without Landeskog, which just shows how bad Rantanen and MacKinnon have been together. COL2 have been better than their top line counterparts at neutralizing scoring chances, but still sit a touch under 50% in possession. On the Islanders side of the game, NYI1 are picking up an inordinate amount of high-danger chances per 60 (14.59 with Bailey on line one, 15.88 without) and firing at a good clip – 37SF/60. Their overall scoring chance number isn’t as impressive, and they actually allow a healthy amount of chances against (good for COL1), but creating that many HD chances out of those shot numbers is impressive. NYI2 – either with Ladd or without – have been incredibly impressive since moving Jordan Eberle beside Barzal. They’re sitting above 60% CF%, create almost double the scoring chances as the opposition (31.9/60 to 17.1/70), and the Eberle/Barzal tandem are getting 17HD chances/60 (14/60 with Ladd). They’ll be neutralized a touch against a smart COL2, but are a very appealing line tonight. |
Chicago Blackhawks vs. Montreal Canadiens
| Montreal | Chicago | Advantage |
| MTL1 (Pacioretty-Danault-Shaw) | CHI1 (DeBrincat-Toews-Panik) | MTL1 |
| MTL2 (Galchenyuk-Drouin-Lehkonen) | CHI2 (Saad-Schmaltz-Kane) | MTL2 |
| Conclusion: MTL2 will see a mix of CHI2 and CHI3, but continue to dominate both scoring chances (65%+) and possession (~60%), with or without Alex Galchenyuk. Although the addition of Brandon Saad to CHI2 has made them play better in terms of possession (49% up to 60%, but a very small sample), they still allow a boatload of shots against: 41SA/60 with Saad and 37SA/60 without. When the second Montreal unit is on against the Chicago 3s, they’ll continue to win possession battles, as CHI3 struggles at 5v5. CHI2 does get a good amount of shots (~35/60, depending on linemates) but haven’t turned them into scoring chances, and are horrible at generating high-danger chances. CHI1 has been very high-event, picking up 36SF/60 (with or without DeBrincat) but allowing about the same. They sit above 50% in possession, but have also been allowing over 15 high-danger chances per 60, and against MTL1 (even on a rough road back-to-back) who are firing 48 shots/60 and getting 20! high-danger chances, this matchup favours Montreal. MTL1 also limits HD chances very well, and allows just under 30 shots/60. |
Calgary Flames vs. New Jersey Devils
| New Jersey | Calgary | Advantage |
| NJ2 (Gibbons-Henrique-Bratt) | CGY1 (Gaudreau-Monahan-Ferland) | CGY1 |
| NJ1 (Hall-Hischier-Stafford) | CGY2 (Frolik-Backlund-Tkachuk) | CGY2 |
| Conclusion: NJ2 haven’t played with Gibbons enough to draw any conclusions on their impact, but the Henrique/Bratt duo have allowed 37 shots against per 60, sit at 44% CF%, and are allowing over 30 scoring chances/60 while not generating many. Both Bratt and Henrique make for good power play plays being on a fantastic NJDPP1, but CGY1 who sit above 55% in every metric and get close to 40SF/60 should run them at 5v5. For as good as NJ1 have been on special teams, they’ve also been porous defensively, and have a tough 5v5 matchup against the two-way line of the Flames. CGY2 is picking up over 30 scoring chances per 60, sit at 57% CF% and against NJ1 who allow 32SC/60 and are below 45% in EVERY category, they’ll struggle tonight. |
| Lines to Target As an explanation, this is lines to target that will typically ignore the uber-chalk plays. EDM1 is a great play, but won’t be listed here for that reason. |
| 1) DET2 |
| 2) MTL1 |
| 3) NYI2 |
| 4) NYI1 |
| 5) CGY1 |