What would it take for Matthew Schaefer to have an all-time great sophomore season?
Matthew Schaefer is going to become a really, really rich man next summer. But how rich is up to him.
The New York Islanders defender is only 19, but he’s already one of the best young players in the world. He turned a draft year shortened due to injury into one of the best rookie campaigns by a defenseman in the salary-cap era, as the Hamilton, Ont., native registered 59 points in a full 82-game campaign.
Everything felt so natural about his rookie season. He had some learning curves to deal with during the preseason, as you’d expect. But it wasn’t long until he was counted on as an all-situations defender for an Islanders team hoping to get back into the playoffs. He finished the year averaging 24:41 a night, which is absolutely absurd for a player his age. Schaefer easily won the Calder Trophy, but he also earned serious consideration for Canada’s Olympic team.
Autopilot is the best way to describe Schaefer’s play. He can move well in any direction, and he uses that to drive his offense. Schaefer can rush the puck in with his high-end speed, and he has the hockey sense to let the rest do the work. He’s always moving and trying to make plays happen at both ends of the ice, and he’s got the awareness and poise to be a top-unit power-play quarterback.
So, you pair elite-level skating with some of the best hands and decision-making of any young player, and you’ve got as close to a perfect defenseman as you’ll find.
Schaefer’s a sophomore, and expectations are even higher. The Islanders will have an opportunity to shake up a subpar Metropolitan Division and make the playoffs, but Schaefer will need to be an unstoppable force to make that happen. He’s absolutely a Norris Trophy contender, although he’s probably closer to 10th than first. Regardless, at 19 years old, he’s already a powerhouse capable of dominating shifts in a way few can.
That begs the question: what will it take for Schaefer to become one of the best sophomore defenders in NHL history?
As it stands, Sergei Zubov’s 89-point campaign with the New York Rangers in 1993-94, as well as Paul Coffey’s 89-point run with Edmonton in 1981-82, are considered the gold standard of what’s possible. Five second-year blueliners have surpassed the 70-point threshold in league history, with Zubov being the most recent. Cale Makar was on pace to absolutely obliterate that in 2020-21, but the COVID-impacted campaign limited him to 44 points in 44 games.
Using Hockey Reference’s era-adjusted points model, Zubov’s sophomore season would be more of an 81-point effort in 2026-27. Denis Potvin, meanwhile, would sit at 70, while everyone else would fall short of that mark. Given what Schaefer did as a rookie, 70 points feels like a given this year. Era-adjusted points are a good way of tracking how offense would differ over generations, given scoring was much higher in the 1980s and early 90s. In terms of just U-20 defenders, Housley’s 77-point season in 1983-84 is the best all-time, while Schaefer’s rookie output is tops among 21st-century production.
Are the Islanders more dangerous than they were a year ago? They lost Anders Lee but gained Matias Maccelli and rookie Victor Eklund. Beyond that, the offense isn’t too deep. Schaefer doesn’t have any real competition on the top power-play unit, so he’ll continue to rack up points with the man advantage.
And the reality is that much of New York’s scoring prowess will be driven by Schaefer. He was second on the team in points behind Mathew Barzal last year, and with Barzal out to start the season, Schaefer has been counted on even more early on. Schaefer had a pair of assists in a 6-0 blowout win over the New Jersey Devils on Saturday. You do the math – that’s an 84-point pace. It’s a tiny sample size, of course. But Schaefer has been excellent through two showings, all things considered. And that’s exactly what you’d expect. Ideally, Schaefer would have better teammates to pass to, but the lack of high-end talent throughout the lineup means there should be more opportunities for Schaefer to be “the guy.”
Schaefer also has an excellent chance to become the youngest defenseman in NHL history to score 30 times in a regular season. Phil Housley was 20 when he managed to do so in 1983-84; Schaefer, meanwhile, just turned 19. His 23 goals last year were enough to tie Brian Leetch’s single-season rookie record, and Schaefer did it on a team that was never really a threat for the playoffs. None of the players listed in the chart below managed to reach 30 goals; not even Coffey, who benefited from playing alongside Mark Messier, Jari Kurri, Glenn Anderson and some guy named Wayne Gretzky.
With an extra year of training, development and experience under his belt, Schaefer should take natural steps forward, as most star players tend to do. A 10-point boost feels almost too safe a projection for a player who thinks and executes plays the way he does. An 84-game season means even more opportunities for Schaefer to chase records.
It didn’t take long for Schaefer to become one of the best young defenders in the world. He’s an absolute must-watch player any time the Islanders are in your city. Winning the Norris Trophy will be a tough ask – Cale Makar, Quinn Hughes, Lane Hutson and Zach Werenski have the upper hand there. But that doesn’t mean we won’t see a big push from Schaefer – and you’d be silly not to bet on him making sophomore history this year.
Best sophomore point production by an NHL defenseman
| Rank | Player | Team | Season | GP | G | A | PTS | P/GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sergei Zubov | New York Rangers | 1993–94 | 78 | 12 | 77 | 89 | 1.14 |
| 1 | Paul Coffey | Edmonton Oilers | 1981–82 | 80 | 29 | 60 | 89 | 1.11 |
| 3 | Phil Housley | Buffalo Sabres | 1983–84 | 75 | 31 | 46 | 77 | 1.03 |
| 4 | Denis Potvin | New York Islanders | 1974–75 | 79 | 21 | 55 | 76 | 0.96 |
| 5 | Brian Leetch | New York Rangers | 1988–89 | 68 | 23 | 48 | 71 | 1.04 |
| 6 | Reijo Ruotsalainen | New York Rangers | 1982–83 | 77 | 16 | 53 | 69 | 0.90 |
| 7 | Dave Babych | Winnipeg Jets | 1981–82 | 79 | 19 | 49 | 68 | 0.86 |
| 8 | Paul Reinhart | Calgary Flames | 1980–81 | 74 | 18 | 49 | 67 | 0.91 |
| 9 | Larry Murphy | Los Angeles Kings | 1981–82 | 79 | 22 | 44 | 66 | 0.84 |
| 9 | Stefan Persson | New York Islanders | 1978–79 | 78 | 16 | 50 | 66 | 0.85 |
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