NHL Player Prop Bets (Oct. 21): Back Carlsson to record a point vs Predators

Join Daily Faceoff’s Nick Martin as he handicaps the best NHL player prop bets available from Tuesday’s 10-game NHL slate.

Best Bet – Jakob Chychrun Anytime Goalscorer: +500 (Sports Interaction, Play to +475)

As I outlined in more detail in my daily slate breakdown, the Capitals appear to be in a great spot to bounce back Tuesday as they take on a Seattle Kraken side that will be playing back-to-back and for the third time in four days.

The Capitals have generated a league-high 4.52 xGF/60 this season, and they will likely manage a strong output of high-quality chances once again in this favorable spot. 

Excellent offensive play from defenders such as John Carlson, Jakob Chychrun, and Rasmus Sandin was a key reason for the Capitals’ success last season, and it has been a driving force in their strong offensive play so far this season. 

Head coach Spencer Carbery pushes his defenders to jump as a fourth attacker in the rush, and his side routinely creates scoring opportunities for skaters such as Chychrun on low-to-high plays in the offensive zone. 

Chychrun tallied 20 goals in 74 games last season and is off to a solid start with two goals in six games thus far. 

That puts Chychrun on pace for 27.3 goals this season, and his underlying results suggest he could have tallied more than just the two goals so far. He’s generated 2.54 expected goals and already poured in 48 shot attempts.

While many of those shot attempts are low-danger efforts from the point through traffic, Chychrun possesses a heavy and accurate wrister and has also been getting his share of more threatening looks from farther down in the zone. 

He nearly tied the game following a beautiful backhand toe-drag in the dying seconds of Sunday’s matchup and was all over the ice offensively while generating 13 shot attempts.

Considering the Capitals’ high implied total in this matchup, I’m happy to take a shot on Chychrun, who continues to look like one of the game’s better offensive defensemen. 

Best Bet – Leo Carlsson Over 0.5 Points: -143 (Sports Interaction, Play to -150)

For a variety of reasons, 2023 second-overall pick Leo Carlsson appears likely to have a full-fledged breakout in his third NHL campaign this season. 

Carlsson showed glimpses of the offensive upside that made him a second-overall pick last season but, as was the case for many Ducks skaters, was seemingly held back offensively playing under former head coach Greg Cronin.

Cronin was, by most accounts, one of the worst offensive coaches in recent memory and limited the offensive upside of a talented Ducks roster last season. New head coach Joel Quenneville has the team playing a more modern style offensively, and so far under Quenneville, the Ducks have generated 3.69 xGF/60 and while featuring a much more up-tempo style.

As expected, Carlsson has fully overtaken the role of top-line center and gets plenty of touches on the Ducks’ top power-play unit, which has succeeded on 25% of opportunities and projects to be quite effective this season.

While I was very high on Carlsson entering the year, I certainly did not predict a resurgence from Chris Kreider would help power Carlsson to success. So far that has been the case, though, as Kreider has been fantastic to start the year.

Carlsson, Kreider, and Alex Killorn have generated 4.92 xGF/60 this season at even strength, which is the fourth-highest mark of any trio that has spent 25 minutes together. 

Carlsson has recorded six points across the first five games of the season, and that’s no surprise as he has looked very strong offensively throughout the Ducks’ first five matchups. The Nashville Predators provide Carlsson with a solid matchup to continue producing, as they have allowed 3.17 goals against per game this season, after allowing 3.34 goals against per game in 2024-25.

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