NHL strength of schedule & rest mismatches: Oct. 21-27

While this week’s NHL schedule may seem light due to an unbalanced lineup, there’s actually more hockey than last week or next week. Here’s a day-by-day breakdown to help you with handicapping.

Strength of Schedule (SOS)

Have you ever heard a sports bettor use the phrase “buy low, sell high”? Understanding a team’s strength of schedule (SOS) can help you know when to apply that strategy and when to hold steady. It’s particularly useful in NHL futures betting, as SOS can help identify teams that are likely to rise or fall before it happens. My strength of schedule metric is calculated based on regular season point totals from sportsbooks.

The Boston Bruins face the toughest schedule this week, with games against Nashville, Dallas, and Toronto. On the other hand, the Predators have the easiest schedule, facing the Bruins but then taking on the Blue Jackets and Blackhawks.

Teams with Toughest SOS:

• Boston Bruins: 3 games, SOS 100.8
• Chicago Blackhawks & Seattle Kraken: 3 games, SOS 99.5
• Columbus Blue Jackets: 2 games, SOS 98.0

Teams with Easiest SOS:

• Vancouver Canucks: 2 games, SOS 81.0
• Nashville Predators: 3 games, SOS 79.5

Here’s the full list for the week of Oct. 21 – 27:

Teams	Games This Week	Strength of Schedule
Boston Bruins	3	100.8
Chicago Blackhawks	3	99.5
Seattle Kraken	3	99.5
Columbus Blue Jackets	2	98.0
New York Islanders	3	97.8
Tampa Bay Lightning	4	97.3
Buffalo Sabres	2	97.0
Florida Panthers	3	96.8
Ottawa Senators	3	96.8
Calgary Flames	3	95.8
Minnesota Wild	3	95.8
Utah Hockey Club	3	95.8
Detroit Red Wings	4	95.8
Pittsburgh Penguins	3	95.2
St. Louis Blues	3	92.5
Edmonton Oilers	3	92.2
Montreal Canadiens	3	92.2
Carolina Hurricanes	3	91.8
Colorado Avalanche	3	90.5
Anaheim Ducks	3	89.8
San Jose Sharks	3	89.5
Washington Capitals	3	89.5
Toronto Maple Leafs	4	88.0
New Jersey Devils	4	87.8
Philadelphia Flyers	4	87.5
Winnipeg Jets	3	86.5
Dallas Stars	3	85.5
Los Angeles Kings	3	84.5
New York Rangers	3	84.2
Vegas Golden Knights	3	83.5
Vancouver Canucks	2	81.0
Nashville Predators	3	79.5

Rest is another critical factor in NHL betting. Last season, home teams with more rest won 59% of games, while teams with equal rest won 54%, and those with less rest won only 48%. Keep this in mind for the week’s matchups, as some teams face a packed schedule.

Rest Diff	Games	Home Win %	Implied Odds
Home >	373	59.0%	55.9%
Home =	690	53.8%	55.2%
Home <	249	47.8%	50.8%

Rest is an important factor to consider when betting on hockey, so read on to see when and where teams will be playing tired or rested. 

Monday, October 21

The week begins with a standout Eastern Conference matchup between the Toronto Maple Leafs and Tampa Bay Lightning. Both teams are looking to rebound after tough weekend losses after having a day off to reassess the situation. One thing to look out for is that Andrei Vasilevskiy has started all four games so far and that means that backup Jonas Johansson will be thrown into a game sooner rather than later.

Other	Rest Days	Visitor	Home	Rest Days	Other
	1	Tampa Bay	Toronto	1

Tuesday, October 22

NHL Frozen Frenzy returns with all 32 teams in action, starting at 6:00 p.m. ET with Washington vs. Philadelphia. Games will have staggered start times every 15 minutes. Teams like Toronto and Tampa Bay might feel fatigued after playing Monday. San Jose, winless, plays its fourth game in six days without top pick Macklin Celebrini.

Other	Rest Days	Visitor	Home	Rest Days	Other
	2	Washington	Philadelphia	2
	2	Minnesota	Florida	2
2/2	0	Tampa	New Jersey	2
	2	Dallas	Buffalo	2
	2	New York	Montreal	2
2/2	0	Toronto	Columbus	2
	2	Detroit	Rangers	2
	1	Winnipeg	St. Louis	2
	2	Vancouver	Chicago	2
	2	Boston	Nashville	2
	1	Pittsburgh	Calgary	2
	2	Carolina	Edmonton	2
	2	Ottawa	Utah	2
4/6	1	San Jose	Anaheim	1
	1	Colorado	Seattle	2
	1	Los	Vegas	2

Wednesday, October 23

The knock on Frozen Frenzy has been the lack of balance, with too few games scheduled on days before and after the event. This season follows the same pattern, with just one game on Monday, and only a single game on Wednesday—which happens to be a rematch of Tuesday’s action.

Other	Rest Days	Visitor	Home	Rest Days	Other
2/2	0	Philadelphia	Washington	0	2/2

Thursday, October 24

Things pick up again with nine games on Thursday, including a rematch of the Eastern Conference Final between the New York Rangers and Florida Panthers. Every team will have had one day off following Tuesday’s Frozen Frenzy event, but the Maple Leafs and Lightning will be playing their third game in four days. Both on the road.

Other	Rest Days	Visitor	Home	Rest Days	Other
	1	Dallas	Boston	1
	1	St. Louis	Toronto	1	3/4
	1	New Jersey	Detroit	1
	1	Minnesota	Tampa Bay	1	3/4
	1	Florida	New York	1
	1	Carolina	Calgary	1
	1	Colorado	Utah	1
	1	Winnipeg	Seattle	1
	1	San Jose	Los Angeles	1

Friday, October 25

Four games highlight Friday, with the big showdown between Connor McDavid’s Edmonton Oilers and Sidney Crosby’s Pittsburgh Penguins. Most teams will have had two days off, though New Jersey plays back-to-back, visiting the New York Islanders.

Other	Rest Days	Visitor	Home	Rest Days	Other
	2	Ottawa	Vegas	2
	2	Islanders	New Jersey	0	2/2
	2	Nashville	Chicago	2
	2	Pittsburgh	Edmonton	2

Saturday, October 26

Saturday is another big day, as per usual, with 14 games. The Sabres will have a two-day rest advantage over the Red Wings. The Ducks will also have had two more days of rest than the Rangers. 

Additionally, seven teams will be playing their second game in as many days, while the Lightning and Maple Leafs will be making their fourth appearances in the last six days. 

Nashville has an easy opponent, but the Blue Jackets will be well-rested and the Predators will be tired. Meanwhile, Vancouver will have had three days off when they host Pittsburgh, who will have flown in from Edmonton in the early morning hours.

Other	Rest Days	Visitor	Home	Rest Days	Other
	1	Detroit	Buffalo	3
	1	Minnesota	Philadelphia	2
	1	Utah	Los Angeles	1
4/6	1	Toronto	Boston	1
	1	St. Louis	Montreal	3
	2	Washington	Tampa Bay	1	4/6
	3	Anaheim	Rangers	1
	1	Winnipeg	Calgary	1
	1	Florida	Islanders	0	2/2
	3	Columbus	Nashville	0	2/2
2/2	0	Chicago	Dallas	1
2/2	0	Pittsburgh	Vancouver	3
	1	San Jose	Vegas	0	2/2
	1	Carolina	Seattle	1

Sunday, October 27

Finally, there’s another light day on Sunday, with Edmonton traveling to Detroit to take on a tired Red Wings team. Anaheim, and to a lesser extent, Montreal, will also be tough. The Ducks will be playing their second road game in two days against the Devils, while the Canadiens will make the trek to Philadelphia to take on the Flyers following their home game against St. Louis. Colorado will also have an advantage, on top of the high altitude, with an extra day of rest compared to the Senators.

Other	Rest Days	Visitor	Home	Rest Days	Other
	1	Edmonton	Detroit	0	2/2
2/2	0	Anaheim	New Jersey	1	3/4
2/2	0	Montreal	Philadelphia	0	2/2
	1	Ottawa	Colorado	2

Use rest days and strength of schedule as key factors in your betting decisions for this busy week of NHL action.