Playoff Panic Index: Concern levels for every team trailing or tied in their series

Credit: © Bob Frid

We’re only five days into the Stanley Cup Playoffs, and while most teams have only played two games, it’s never too early in a playoff series to start reacting. Whether a team is trailing or tied in a series that they should be running away with, how the first few games go can determine how the rest of the series goes, so it’s probably the only time to justifiably react to small sample sizes.

Mike Gould and I are teaming up again for the Playoff Panic Index, a look at how concerned teams should be about their performance and their playoff chances right now. We both gave a rating between 0-10 for all of the teams currently tied or trailing in their series, with 0 meaning that there still isn’t a cause for concern, and a 10 being more in the range of a heart-attack inducing panic. Then, we averaged out our ratings to get the final score and ranked them as such.

So, which teams should be freaking out and which ones shouldn’t worry just yet? Let’s find out.

11. Edmonton Oilers – 1.5/10

Mike’s Rating: 1
Scott’s Rating: 2

Mike: It goes against every fiber of my being to say this as a born-and-bred Calgarian, but I’m not remotely concerned about the Oilers in this series and their fans shouldn’t be, either. I’ve watched the Oilers play the Kings in back-to-back playoffs before this year and while there’s been the odd moment of intrigue here and there, those series have largely functioned as an appetizer for this Oilers team. I’m absolutely concerned about Stuart Skinner, who needed to make a big save on a couple of those goals against in Game 2 on Wednesday, but the Oilers were such a strong possession team during the regular season that I’m not convinced they’ll give Skinner much of a chance to uproot them in the remaining games of this series. We’ll see.

Scott: Yup, Los Angeles has given them worse troubles in previous seasons and they’ve still won, so I’d still be chilling right now if I was Edmonton. Not only that, but Thatcher Demko’s injury has suddenly made their path to go on a deep run easier.

10. Colorado Avalanche – 3.5/10

Mike’s Rating: 4
Scott’s Rating: 3

Mike: It could be worse, but it could also be better. Even in Tuesday’s Game 2 win over the Jets, Alexandar Georgiev had some true hold-your-breath moments between the pipes for this Avs team. Nobody can argue with the end result — how about Zach Parise scoring the game-winning goal? — but goaltending is always going to be a question for these Avs given how poorly Georgiev performed at times this season (and in Game 1). When you’re going up against Connor Hellebuyck, that weakness is always going to be more apparent. But the Avs have outshot the Jets in both games to start this series and they still happen to have Cale Makar and Nathan MacKinnon.

Scott: I feel like we haven’t even seen playoff MacKinnon yet in either of those games. Georgiev might be a problem, but Hellebuyck’s been one too, and if that’s the case, I wouldn’t be too worried about the Avs as they head back to Colorado with home-ice advantage. Well, I wouldn’t be too worried about them right now.

9. Tampa Bay Lightning – 4.5/10

Mike’s Rating: 5
Scott’s Rating: 4

Scott: Should the Lightning be worried about the fact that they’re down 2-0 in their series? Of course. But as the saying goes, you aren’t in trouble until you lose at home, and while the Bolts will need to win in Amerant Bank Arena at least once to win the series, they probably shouldn’t be panicking until they lose at home. Besides, they’ve held a very good Panthers team to two close games, so this is far from a dominant 2-0 series lead.

Mike: My panic score is a little bit higher here just because, if I were a Lightning fan, I’d be a little concerned that this series might be the sendoff for Steven Stamkos in Tampa. He’s a pending UFA and there hasn’t been much news this year about ongoing talks or anything in that vein. Stamkos has been on an incredible run with the Lightning and his number will be retired someday but if this is it, I wouldn’t want him to go out with a sweep against a rival like Florida.

Scott: Meh, his contract negotiations went to the wire last time around as well, back when it seemed like a certainty that he was going to wear a different blue and white jersey. Obviously you’d prefer to see him be locked up, but it’s hard to see him going anywhere else.

8. Los Angeles Kings – 5/10

Mike’s Rating: 5
Scott’s Rating: 5

Scott: In terms of the state of this series, the Kings are probably closer to like a 1 or a 2. They just tied up the series, and they’ve caused the Oilers enough problems in both games to maybe leave some uncertainty in their heads, especially with Skinner. The only reason that they’re at a 5 is because, well, this is the Kings up against the Oilers. There should always be an underlying presence of panic for them. The Oilers have found ways to overcome the Kings putting up a fight the last two years, so who’s to say that this better edition of the team won’t do the same to L.A.?

Mike: Yeah, I just don’t buy the Kings at all in this series. We’re on year three of watching these two teams duke it out in the first round and I haven’t seen anything to convince me that this won’t be the third consecutive year the Kings end up disappointing me. I hope I’m wrong, but I don’t see a ton of room for optimism. These guys just don’t match up well against the Oilers.

7. Washington Capitals – 5.5/10

Mike’s Rating: 6
Scott’s Rating: 5

Mike: The Caps partially fall into what I’m calling the “Just happy to be here” category — because, quite frankly, they’re just happy to be here. It took a cosmic twist of fate for these Capitals, minus-37 goal differential and all, to take the final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference over Detroit, Pittsburgh, and Philadelphia. That being said, they’re coming off a one-goal loss to the Rangers in Game 2 where they truly did have a legit shot if not for K’Andre Miller’s shorthanded game-winning goal. There was an ever-so-slight tinge of panic in Spencer Carbery’s post-game comments about Alex Ovechkin, too.

Scott: You could also say that outside of a 2:06 stretch of bad play in Game 1, that was also a very winnable game. The Rangers probably finish off the series in four games, but I’d be curious to see how Washington does on home ice.

6. Nashville Predators – 5.5/10

Mike’s Rating: 5
Scott’s Rating: 6

Scott: Considering the expectations going into this series, I’d imagine the Predators have to be quite content with where they are at in the series. They just ground out a win on the road, they have a tie series going back to Nashville, and they now have a decisive advantage in net with Demko out for the series. However, I should say that the way they’ve played should be a bit of a cause for concern. They were bleeding shot attempts in the Game 2 win, and the only reason the Canucks didn’t come back was because of an absurd amount of blocked shots and Juuse Saros stopping the ones that got through. It was a gutsy win, but if that’s the only way they can beat this Canucks team, it’s tough to see them lasting much longer.

Mike: The Preds are playing with house money here to a certain extent. They’re very much a team in a transitional phase under a new GM and a new coach. A lot of people — myself included — had absolutely no expectations for them this year. Sure, the desire to win is always going to be there as long as franchise legend Roman Josi is still playing at a high level, but it’s not like this is a “Cup or bust” team. Demko’s absence lowers their panic rating by a full point.

5. Winnipeg Jets – 5.5/10

Mike’s Rating: 5
Scott’s Rating: 6

Scott: On one hand, the Jets have to be happy with the fact that Game 1 showed that they can play Colorado’s style and come out with a win. But on the other hand, the biggest reason that they are going to go far in these playoffs is Hellebuyck, and he has been brutal so far. The Jets managed to outscore his six goals against in Game 1, but he didn’t fare any better in Game 2 and that’s why the series is tied. The Jets allowing 77 shots against doesn’t help his cause, but if Hellebuyck can’t return to his normal level, this might be much easier for the Avs than most originally thought.

Mike: The Jets have been leeeeaaakyyy. They have all kinds of skill up front — I’ve loved watching Gabe Vilardi in this series so far — but I have serious questions about this team’s defensive personnel and structure. As much as Josh Morrissey has improved over the last few seasons, I still don’t think the Jets have a true No. 1 guy back there. When you’re going up against a team like Colorado, you kinda need one.

4. Dallas Stars – 6.5/10

Mike’s Rating: 7
Scott’s Rating: 6

Scott: The Stars should probably be more frustrated than panicked. If any team down 0-2 right now is capable of getting back in this series, it’s this Dallas team, even if they lost both games at home, so I wouldn’t be completely scared just yet. But that doesn’t mean I’d be happy. They’re one of the deepest teams in the league, and they achieved it without long-term injured reserve, and yet they get matched up against a better version of a Vegas squad that eliminated them last season. Some reward for first place in the West.

Mike: Our main man Frank Seravalli has been banging the drum on social media for a few weeks about how much the Golden Knights have benefited from being able to stash guys on LTIR leading into the playoffs, and it’s not hard to envision the Stars feeling the same way. There’s no better reinforcement than getting Mark Stone back just in time for the first round. It’s much easier said than done to put a salary cap on the playoffs — regular season cap hits are calculated daily over a fixed period of time, whereas every playoff team has a different end date. It’d require the creation of an all-new mechanism. Honestly, it might not be worth the trouble. But that doesn’t mean the Stars aren’t getting a bit fidgety about it.

3. Toronto Maple Leafs – 7/10

Mike’s Rating: 7
Scott’s Rating: 7

Scott: For me, the Leafs’ have some sense of panic not because of one major concern, but a bunch of minor ones that seem to add up. Their special teams have struggled at both ends, their physicality hasn’t really fazed the Bruins too much and usually just gets Toronto penalties, and Ilya Samsonov has struggled at times, especially when Jeremy Swayman and Linus Ullmark have played well for the Bruins. Also the unknown factor of William Nylander’s health leaves his return up in the air, and considering he’s usually been their best playoff performer, his presence is very much needed. They’ve been the better team for a good portion of this series, so they’re far from finished, but it’s been a bunch of little mistakes that have seemed to cause the problems for them.

Mike: Mitch Marner set up a nice goal in Game 3 but has otherwise been pretty anonymous in this series, leading to fiery debates among Leafs faithful over whether this might be No. 16’s last year in the blue and white. I’m not convinced we’ll get to that point this summer, although there’s no denying Brad Treliving loves making big blockbuster trades. That said, the other main focal point thus far has been goaltending, and you can bet the Leafs will be active in trying to address that weakness this offseason.

Scott: Honestly, I don’t think the Leafs are going to be overly stressed about their goaltending this summer. It’s not a perfect situation, but Joseph Woll seems like the future in net for them, so I think it’s really just a matter of giving him a summer to fully heal, finding a stable veteran to run a solid 1A/1B tandem for them, and developing Woll into The Guy. I’m more worried about what they’re going to do with the blueline in front of them that is making them look worse than they probably are.

2. Vancouver Canucks – 7.5/10

Mike’s Rating: 8
Scott’s Rating: 7

Mike: How can you not be panicking as a Canucks fan? You’ve just lost Demko for an indeterminate period of time, Elias Pettersson looks like he might not be at 100 percent, and you’re coming off a frustrating loss in Game 2 with the series now shifting to Nashville. Casey DeSmith is a solid backup at the best of times, but he’s no Demko, and the Canucks played like they were acutely aware of that on Tuesday. They’ll need guys like Quinn Hughes, Elias Lindholm, J.T. Miller, and Brock Boeser to be at their very best — plus a resurgence from Pettersson — if they want to avoid being upset in this one.

Scott: The only reason why I don’t have the Canucks higher is because after how they played in Game 2, I still feel like they should at least win this series against the Preds. The fact that the Preds have been dictating the play in this series so far is quite concerning, but if the Canucks can start to play their game again, they should be able to move on even with DeSmith in net. After that is where they should be much more concerned with Demko’s future up in the air.

1. New York Islanders – 8.5/10

Mike’s Rating: 8
Scott’s Rating: 9

Mike: I was tempted to slot these Islanders into the “Just happy to be here” category and bump their score down a couple notches … but man, they were so close to taking Game 2 against the Canes, only to lose in heartbreaking (and embarrassing) fashion. I don’t care who you are or how your team got to the playoffs — losing that way is always cause for panic. Seriously, they had a 3-0 lead! And not only did they blow it, they went from leading 3-2 to trailing 4-3 in all of nine seconds! What a disaster. Patrick Roy badly needs to steer this ship back on course.

Scott: It’s not a long shot to think that a single bounce going the other way in both games would have the Isles up 2-0 in this series instead. Game 1 was just tough luck, but Game 2 was an unmitigated disaster. We’ve probably witnessed the best that the Isles can do in this series, and when that doesn’t even get them wins, I’d hate to see what happens when the Canes play to their full potential. Help them Ilya Sorokin, you’re there only hope.

Bonus – New York Rangers – 0.5/10

Scott: Look, I’m not going to get too worked up over the Rangers’ play so far because they are up 2-0 in their series. But, this is a team that has the skill to compete but lacks the play-driving ability that other elite teams have. If that’s causing them to barely get by in games against a team like the Capitals, I’d be a bit nervous looking ahead as a Rangers fan for when they play the teams that have the skill to match theirs and play-driving ability on top of that – like, say, Carolina.

_____

_______

Hey, hockey heads! Get ready for The Daily Faceoff Playoff Parlay Challenge! Each game day, answer four playoff prediction questions like who will win the first game, will points be over or under or what will be the highest-scoring period? Daily winners snag gift cards, while each round’s champs pocket cash! Play now at games.dailyfaceoff.com and prove your puck prowess! It’s fast, it’s fun, and it’s all about hockey! Let’s go!