Physical teams can go far in the playoffs if they master one crucial skill first
Welcome to part 5 of Daily Faceoff Stanley Cup Ingredients 2025-26. To catch you up: I’ve crafted a formula consisting of seven common ingredients among recent Stanley Cup champions, using the previous 10 seasons as the sample. You can click here for a more detailed breakdown of the formula and how accurately it has predicted teams going deep in the playoffs.
Last week, we commenced the annual series by exploring the (fading!) correlation between team weight and championships. Next, we assessed how important point-per-game scorers are to capturing the Stanley Cup. Then, we examined whether elite goaltending remains as important as ever in the spring and studied the link between expected goal differential at 5-on-5 and Stanley Cups.
Now we check in on the connection between an elite penalty kill and a Stanley-Cup-caliber team.
Stanley Cup Ingredient #5: PENALTY KILLING EFFICIENCY
Rather than converting power plays, the ability to erase your mistakes with a strong PK proved to have much more commonality among championship teams when I started the Cup Ingredients series in 2021-22. The trend briefly faded before trending back up the past couple seasons. Where does the correlation sit now?
| Season | Champion | Penalty Kill % |
| 2015-16 | Pittsburgh | 84.4% (5th) |
| 2016-17 | Pittsburgh | 79.8% (20th) |
| 2017-18 | Washington | 80.3% (15th) |
| 2018-19 | St. Louis | 81.5% (9th) |
| 2019-20 | Tampa Bay | 81.4% (14th) |
| 2020-21 | Tampa Bay | 84.2% (4th) |
| 2021-22 | Colorado | 79.7% (15th) |
| 2022-23 | Vegas | 77.4% (19th) |
| 2023-24 | Florida | 82.5% (6th) |
| 2024-25 | Florida | 80.7% (10th) |
Stanley Cup correlation: Strong
Half the Stanley Cup winners in the past decade boasted top-10 PKs in the league, and eight of 10 ranked in the top half of the NHL. It’s noteworthy that only two of the past 10 champs sat top-five on the PK, so it seems you need to be merely good when shorthanded rather than elite.
What does the NHL team PK leaderboard look like for 2025-26 through games played March 24?
Best penalty killing efficiency, 2025-26 NHL season
1. Chicago Blackhawks, 84.5%
2. Colorado Avalanche, 83.2%
3. Pittsburgh Penguins, 82.9%
4. Toronto Maple Leafs, 82.7%
5. Vegas Golden Knights, 82.1%
6. Buffalo Sabres, 81.9%
7. Tampa Bay Lightning, 81.7%
8. Florida Panthers, 81.6%
9. Calgary Flames, 81.3%
10. New York Islanders, 81.3%
The leaderboard yields a mix of legitimate Stanley Cup contenders and basement dwellers. It’s not a huge surprise to see complete teams like the Colorado Avalanche and Tampa Bay Lightning on the board, but the Pittsburgh Penguins, extremely well coached by newcomer Dan Muse, stand out here, as do the rising powerhouse Buffalo Sabres. The Vegas Golden Knights continue to pop up in these Ingredients stories and look like an emerging sleeper if they can get any semblance of goaltending.
The PK seems to be most important when it’s strong on a team that also plays a physical style. The Florida Panthers were one of the NHL’s two most penalized teams, and threw the most hits in the league, in each of their consecutive Stanley Cup seasons, and they were able to bully opponents partially because they had a top-10 penalty kill to bail them out both years. The one playoff contender this season sitting top-10 in times penalized and penalty kill efficiency: the Lightning, who have always delivered strong special teams play under coach Jon Cooper.
At the bottom of the PK leaderboard this season, no team stands out more than the enigmatic Ottawa Senators. They play the best 5-on-5 defense in the entire league this season, yet they sit 30th on the PK and dead last in save percentage. They could’ve been the 1994-95 New Jersey Devils with any competency on the PK and between the pipes. Instead, the Sens are fighting tooth and nail to even make the playoffs.
_____
Previous instalments of Stanley Cup Ingredients 2026
Team Weight
Point-per-game Players
Top-10 Goalie
Expected goal differential
Next up: Stanley Cup Rings
_____
POST SPONSORED BY bet365
_____