Which 2026 draft picks could start the season in the NHL?
Nobody will disagree with the fact that the NCAA’s ruling to allow players of CHL experience to play college hockey in the United States made things more complicated.
We’ve seen major junior teams wondering if their top star players are going to return in a way that just hasn’t happened before. In the past, teams had to worry about whether they would lose one of their top players to the NHL for a few games. Now, they’ve got college teams trying to poach players they’ve built around for the past few years.
But the one thing they made a little easier, though, is deciphering who’s headed to the NHL or not. Of the top 11 players taken in 2026, seven are off to college. They can’t have NHL entry-level contracts and still be in college, so you can easily cross them off the lists. Major junior players can sign ELCs without making the jump to pro, which made things a bit cloudier heading into the season.
A total of 11 first-round picks from 2026 have signed ELCs this summer. A few of them, such as Anaheim’s Marcus Nordmark and New York Islanders’ Malte Gustafsson, are set to return to their European-based clubs. But which ones will jump right to the NHL? These players have the best shots of making it, with their draft selections listed beside their names:
1. Gavin McKenna, LW (Toronto Maple Leafs)
This is, and always was, a given. McKenna was one of the top stars in college hockey and has been extremely productive at every level. Toronto needed someone with his hockey IQ and pure talent in the top six, and the young winger hits all the notes. The hands, the mobility, the ability to get himself into scoring lanes consistently, you name it.
McKenna is stepping into an ideal situation where he’ll get to rely on some quality centers early on in his career. He’ll likely skate alongside either Auston Matthews or John Tavares out of the gate. Not only are both high-end forwards, but they’ve both weathered the storm dealing with the pressure of being first overall picks in the NHL. Matthew Knies might have the inside track as the team’s No. 1 left winger, but it won’t be long until McKenna pushes the envelope and steals ice time away.
2. Ivar Stenberg, LW (San Jose Sharks)
Stenberg’s floor is very, very high. He’s dynamic in possession, wields a lethal shot and flashes high-end hockey sense. Even though his point production tapered off slightly down the stretch, he still authored one of the most impressive U-19 seasons in recent SHL history and was excellent at the Worlds. Add a stellar gold-medal run with Sweden at the World Juniors to his resume, and it was hard to not fall in love with his raw talent.
Stenberg will have some depth to contend with on the left side this year, but I fully expect him to leave Sharks’ camp as a middle-six winger and challenge for rookie of the year honors. That pro experience definitely doesn’t hurt, either. If he ends up with Macklin Celebrini, he could ultimately be the top contender for the Calder.
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Draft Picks
5. Alberts Šmits, LHD (New York Rangers)
When the Rangers selected Šmits fifth overall, they knew there was a strong chance he’d immediately make the big club. Jukurit definitely hopes that isn’t the case, but it’s going to be hard to keep Šmits out of Madison Square Garden. Šmits was a big part of Latvia’s World Junior, World Championship and Olympic teams last season. The 6-foot-3 blueliner moves well for his size and makes so much happen with the puck.
It’s always nice seeing an 18-year-old who plays with a ton of confidence on the power play. He also has plenty of pro experience under his belt, which can be challenging to find out of European defenders. Šmits should absolutely have a chance at taking the third-pair left defenseman spot over Matthew Robertson out of training camp. If things fall flat, Šmits can chase big minutes back in Finland. Regardless, I think he’ll be a top-four defenseman sooner rather than later.
8. Viggo Björck, C (Winnipeg Jets)
Björck is easily the best prospect the Jets have had in a very long time. The fearless center is so fascinating; nobody seems to know how to contain him. At the World Championship, we saw Björck win battles against just about everyone. Björck’s shot is incredibly deceptive, especially on the power play. He doesn’t give you much to work with if you’re a goalie – and it’s because he doesn’t need to. Björck is quick, accurate and always in a dangerous spot, and there’s legitimate No. 1 center potential here.
Björck already left Djurgården IF, meaning he’ll either play with Winnipeg or its AHL affiliate, the Manitoba Moose. It’s typical for European players to return home if they miss out on the NHL (as opposed to going down to the AHL), so the Jets must think he has a legitimate shot to stay full-time with the big club. For now, he’ll have to outmuscle some veterans to earn ice time, but many scouts believe he’s ready.
15. Nikita Klepov, RW (Anaheim Ducks)
Klepov was a great pick in the first round back in June – and I think he has top-six potential. The winger is a tremendous playmaker and finished the year as the OHL’s top scorer with 97 points. But he’s also a stout shooter and wasn’t far from reaching the 40-goal barrier. Klepov had committed to Michigan State University but later changed his mind and signed an entry-level contract with the Ducks. That means he’ll either play with Anaheim or head back to Saginaw – but the timing of the deal makes it feel like both the Ducks and Klepov think he can start the year with the big club.
And, hey, why not? They may need to fill some offensive gaps if they’re going to move out veterans to sign Cutter Gauthier, anyway. Klepov plays with a ton of finesse, but he’s physically strong, too. He’s just an OK skater, but Klepov tends to make things happen when he’s in control of the puck on the attack. If Klepov makes the big club, look for him to challenge for a top-six role.
24. Adam Novotný, LW, 18 (Vancouver Canucks)
Novotný has the lowest chance of the bunch to make the NHL, but it’s definitely a possibility after he signed his ELC a few weeks back. Novotný is a rugged, heavy-playing forward equipped with a solid shot release. While his lack of raw production at the World Juniors was initially surprising, the underlying process was stellar; he consistently navigated into high-danger areas and generated quality chances.
Any concerns about his transition to North American ice were quickly erased during a 30-goal rookie campaign, where he easily paced the Peterborough Petes’ offense. Combine that offensive drive with a highly committed, responsible two-way game, and he projects strongly as a high-impact, top-six power forward at the NHL level – someone in more of the 40-50-point range. Novotný is currently with the Petes in training camp and should spend the majority of the season there. But could he force his way into the NHL lineup, just like Braeden Cootes did a year ago? That would be fun.
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