What’s fuelling Ivar Stenberg’s push for No. 1 overall prospect in the 2026 NHL Draft?
With the 2026 NHL Draft slowly creeping up, the battle between who should be the first overall pick has been a hot-button topic around NHL circles: Gavin McKenna or Ivar Stenberg?
Last week, we wrote about whether the hockey world was overanalyzing Gavin McKenna as the 2026 NHL Draft’s top prospect, with words from a Penn State reporter, who gave us the ins and outs of his season and why his numbers may not pop off the page.
To this point, both players in their own right have serious cases as to why it should be them, but today, we’re here to outline what has truly gotten behind this rise of Ivar Stenberg and his historic season.
So far in 2025-26, Stenberg has seven goals and 21 assists for 28 points through 29 SHL games. His point total has him tied for 26th in league scoring and third on his own team. However, Stenberg missed a chunk of games to attend the World Junior Championship in late December and early January.
If we shift our focus to points per game, Stenberg’s .966 moves him up sixth in the SHL and first on Frolunda. That demonstrates how well Stenberg is playing. But what’s most impressive is he’s doing this all as a draft-eligible 18-year-old.
Among the great 18-year-old seasons in the SHL, Stenberg currently finds himself in a tie with Peter Forsberg for ninth on the all-time scoring list. If Stenberg is to keep up with his scoring pace for the remaining 14 games on Frolunda’s schedule, he would tie the all-time 18-year-old record set by Daniel Sedin in 1998-99 with 42 points.
Anybody who’s on pace to tie a Hockey Hall of Famer’s record, passing some of the best players the country of Sweden has ever produced, deserves strong consideration for a top selection.
But what has gone into all this success from Stenberg? It shouldn’t necessarily be viewed as a surprise, considering the Swede was projected to be a top-five/top-10 selection heading into the year. However, nobody had Stenberg pegged to contest or, as many are now speculating, surpass McKenna as the best prospect of the 2026 Draft.
Daily Faceoff spoke with Frolunda GM Fredrik Sjöstrom to get to the bottom of what has truly gone into Stenberg’s success this season.
“If you look at what he did at the end of the season last year and in the playoffs, first and foremost, we made sure we had a spot for him on our team this year, but we didn’t want to add too much pressure on him early on,” Sjöstrom said. “So we kind of put him in a situation where he’s not, maybe put on the top line right away. Then we felt we wanted to give him a good start with not too much pressure. But we could tell right away that he was – I don’t know if I should say, exceeding our expectations, because we obviously saw him during the years – really playing good. He’s found chemistry with the line he’s been playing on, and they’ve been playing so well together the whole season.
“He’s just been taking steps even this season, with the way he plays, and not only is he producing, but in the SHL, it’s not an easy league. Some might call it a little bit of a defensive league; it’s pretty tight, and all the teams are very structured here, and everybody back-checks like crazy. So I would say it’s impressive to see how he’s been able to produce at this level. It’s been fun to watch. I mean, there was a span before he left for the World Juniors, that, on a lot of nights, he was our best player.”
That’s big praise to call the 18-year-old the best player on the team, especially when you consider how Frolunda is doing this season. Their 30-7-1 record this season has them comfortably first in the SHL Standings, with an eight-point cushion over second-place Skelleftea. But it’s not a one-man show in Frolunda; they roll four lines and get contributions up and down their lineup.
Looking into the team’s player stats, Frolunda leads the SHL in 25+ point scorers (six). However, they do not have a top-10 scorer in individual points in the league. That goes to show the depth of this Frolunda team, which has allowed Stenberg to flourish offensively with his linemates Max Lindholm and Theodor Niederbach.
“They’ve been playing together most of the season, to be honest,” Sjöstrom said. “They’ve been one of our best lines through the year here. Offensively, they’re really sticking out. And we lean heavily on that line to produce for us and also on the power play. Ivar has a big role there. So, I would say he has a really [important] role, and he has good teammates playing with him.”
Both of Stenberg’s regular linemates are among the six 25+ point scorers; Lindholm (28) has 16 goals and 29 points, and Niederbach (23) has 11 goals and 26 points, both playing in all 38 games for Frolunda. What’s most impressive is that this trio has done so without any previous chemistry. Lindholm and Niederbach both played on different teams last season, while Stenberg did not graduate to the SHL until halfway through the season.
As a 16-year-old, Stenberg scored three goals and eight points while playing for Vastra Frolunda Jr., Frolunda’s U20 team. He followed that season by completely dominating in 2024-25 as a 17-year-old, scoring 26 goals and 53 points with a plus-27 rating in 27 games. Clearly ready for a promotion, Stenberg finished the season with Frolunda’s big club in the SHL.
It wasn’t the smoothest transition to the SHL for the Stenungsund native, as he tallied just one goal and three points in 25 games. But the organization did not panic. They were patient with Stenberg and his growth, and it paid off, as he tallied three goals and six points in 12 postseason contests. This gave Sjöstrom a sneak peek into the type of player they were getting for the 2025-26 season.
“In a way, we kind of wanted him to be in that situation too, where he gets to have the puck a lot; he gets to be a dominant player and really gain that confidence,” Sjöstrom said regarding Stenberg’s time with Frolunda’s U20 team. “We knew it was just a matter of time before we gave him the chance with the men’s team. But we didn’t want to rush it. And after a while, we felt, ‘OK, we’ve got to give this kid a chance.’ And although he didn’t have that many points in his beginning in the SHL, he played well, and we could all see what he could do. I think you saw that at the end of the season last year. The way he performed for us in the playoffs last year, it was pretty remarkable for a 17-year-old. So, he held his own there, and we could see what to expect this season.”
One constant you’ll hear from various scouts when dissecting Stenberg’s game compared to the likes of McKenna or other top-projected selections is that the Swede is one of the more NHL-ready prospects in this draft class. He now has 54 SHL games under his belt, playing against men, and he hasn’t looked out of place or outmatched. Another significant factor that has tilted the scales in Stenberg’s favor is the work he did at the 2026 World Junior Championship.
At the tournament, Stenberg was the dynamic offensive force for Team Sweden. He led the team in points (four goals and 10 points) and found a way to contribute to the scoresheet in all but one game – an 8-1 victory over Germany, where one could argue, they did not need him. But when they did need him, when the games truly mattered, Stenberg answered the bell.
He picked up points in all three games (two goals and four assists) en route to Sweden’s first gold medal since 2012. Stenberg had the game-sealing empty-net goal in the dying seconds and added a pair of helpers to factor in on three of Sweden’s four goals. And since claiming gold, Stenberg has continued his strong play with Frolunda, bringing a championship swagger to his game. In four games since returning, the Swede is averaging a point per game with one goal and three assists.
Stenberg is showing the potential to be Sweden’s next elite talent. But that’s nothing Sjöstrom hasn’t seen before.
Sjöstrom has served as Frolunda’s GM since Dec. 21, 2015. In his time as GM, Sjöstrom is a two-time SHL and four-time Champions League Champion. Safe to say, he has seen his fair share of talented Swedes come through his program and move on to have successful NHL careers, and Sjöstrom believes Stenberg is the next one on the list.
“I’ve been [in Frolunda] for 10 years now, and I’ve seen some good players come through our system: Rasmus Dahlin and Lucas Raymond; Ivar’s definitely up there,” Sjöstrom stated. “He’s a special player. Obviously, we know that a player like that doesn’t come around all the time for us, either. Very special kid and a player, someone that I think is gonna go far.”
With that said, what is that defining factor that separates Stenberg from the rest of his peers?
“I would say it’s definitely his smartness and overall hockey sense,” Sjöstrom replied. “He has this ability to kind of slow the game down to his preference. He can play fast-paced games, but you know, it just seems like everything slows down around him. And he’s so aware of everything that goes on around him, he knows where everybody is all the time. I would say it’s his hockey sense is what really sticks out.”
Being an elite talent is only half the battle to a lengthy NHL career. How you are perceived in a locker room by your teammates is nearly just as important. Sjöstrom mentioned how easy-going and happy Stenberg is all the time, epitomized by a nice story involving a teammate.
“A telling sign here is that the older guys on the team really like him, and they take care of him. We’ve had one of our assistant captains, Christian Folin, who played over in North America. He took it upon himself to volunteer to room with Ivar when we travel on the road. And I think that’s pretty telling; one of our most experienced players and our assistant captain said, ‘Yeah, I’m gonna room with this kid and help him out, and teach him some things.’ I would say that’s a pretty cool thing.”
The whole battle between McKenna and Stenberg will be really intriguing to watch down the stretch here. Will Stenberg continue his steady pace and tie or even break the 18-year-old SHL scoring record? And if that’s the case, doing so against men, it’s hard to argue against his case as the top prospect after that season, his World Juniors, and whatever he does from now until draft day.
Regardless of where he gets picked in the draft, the team will run up to the podium to say his name in June.
His NHL equivalent, according to Sjöstrom?
“That’s a tough one. I would say maybe a mix between Nikita Kucherov and almost, maybe a little bit more Kirill Kaprizov. He’s so shifty, and he’s got the smartness; he can set up anybody, but he’s also got that scoring touch and that mentality to go to the net in the hard areas, too. He doesn’t shy away from that.”
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