Prediction: New York Rangers, 2022-23 Stanley Cup champions

The New York Rangers are not going to win the Stanley Cup this year. They are going to win it next year. You heard it here first.

The Rangers ultimately didn’t have quite enough talent or experience to match the two-time defending champion Tampa Bay Lightning this season, but the Blueshirts signalled to the rest of the league that their time is coming very soon.

It’s true that Cup finalists Tampa Bay and Colorado, among other teams, will still be very strong next year. I know it’s a bold take. However, there is a lot to be bullish about with the Rangers to make me think they could take the crown in 2022-23. For starters, they have a very young team that still has lots of room to improve. Only four players on the main roster are over the age of 30 (Artemi Panarin is 30, Chris Kreider is 31 and Ryan Reaves and pending UFA Justin Braun are 35).

Their ‘Kid Line’ consists of three first-round picks who are 20 (Alexis Lafreniere), 21 (Kaapo Kakko) and 22 (Filip Chytil). Those three have started to blossom into threatening offensive players, and there remains lots of upside in their games. Then there’s Vezina Trophy lock Shesterkin at 26 years old and a defense that includes Adam Fox (24), Jacob Trouba (28), Braden Schneider (20), K’Andre Miller (22) and Ryan Lindgren (24). There’s a lot of runway here and a lot of potential that has not been fully tapped.

Despite its youth, the Blueshirts roster now has considerable playoff experience. Through their comeback series wins against Pittsburgh and Carolina (including wins in five consecutive elimination games before Saturday’s loss), they have developed the kind of resilience and character that is needed to win a championship. They looked the part against the two-time Stanley Cup champion Lightning, falling short but giving the Bolts all they could handle.

What may be most compelling is that while almost all the other main contenders in the league are about to have off-season salary cap nightmares that will diminish the talent on their rosters, the Rangers have what looks to be one of the cleanest cap pictures heading into next year. The Blueshirts’ management will have the ability to either keep their trade deadline acquisitions or add to the roster in other ways.

The tidy cap sheet starts with Shesterkin, who is locked in for three more years at a very reasonable $5.67 million per year. On the back end, each of Fox, Trouba, Lindgren, Miller and Schneider are signed through at least next year. Miller has one more year at an entry-level price tag while Schneider has two more. Even with a tenfold increase to Fox’s cap hit starting next year (from his entry-level $925,000 to $9.5 million average annual value), the investment in the D-corps is more than manageable.

The forward group has the aforementioned Kid Line, with only Kakko needing an extension, and he’s a restricted free agent without arbitration rights who won’t command a big pay day this offseason. Meanwhile, the team’s biggest stars at forward – Panarin, Mika Zibanejad and Chris Kreider – are all locked into long-term deals that are currently well-matched to their level of production.

Ryan Strome is the only significant player from their pre-deadline roster that will become a UFA, along with solid trade deadline pickups Andrew Copp, Tyler Motte, Frank Vatrano and Braun. With approximately $13.5 million of free cap space to spend in the off-season, the Rangers should be able to bring back at least three of those players. Copp, Motte and Vatrano all showed well after being acquired, and I could see the Rangers wanting to keep them all if they can. They also have the option of bringing back RFA Sammy Blais, a nice offseason addition from the St. Louis Blues that tore his ACL and was limited to just 14 games this season.

In short, the Rangers have an intact core and several options for how they surround it. If re-signing their rentals isn’t their plan, they could look at some of the bigger names that become available as cap-strapped teams look to shed commitments to stay cap compliant. The Rangers also have a great prospect pool, and they have been rumored to be willing to part with some of those assets to go big-game hunting in the offseason. Do they go after some of the players on Frank Seravalli’s top 50 trade targets list? Kevin Fiala and J.T. Miller come to mind. It is certainly possible, although you have to wonder whether the Rangers’ stellar playoff run will make them less willing to shake up a roster that made such huge strides to close out the year.

A look at the other teams that were considered legitimate contenders this year reveals that almost all of them will be embarking on challenging off-seasons that will likely result in parting with key roster pieces.

The Avalanche have a quandary about meeting the contract demands of players like Nazem Kadri and Andre Burakovsky this year while still leaving room for a huge Nathan MacKinnon deal the following year. The Lightning will have big decisions to make, and not much money to spend, on key contributors Ondrej Palat and Nick Paul.

The Edmonton Oilers have only so much room to try to fit Evander Kane and a new goalie into their plans. The Florida Panthers have to contend with big salary increases for Aleksander Barkov and Carter Verhaeghe that will almost certainly prohibit them from keeping players such as trade deadline acquisition Claude Giroux. The Calgary Flames have the monumental challenge of trying to retain the services of Johnny Gaudreau, Matthew Tkachuk and Andrew Mangiapane. The Minnesota Wild may need to trade Fiala to make room for the dead money from their buyouts. And the Toronto Maple Leafs either need to invest in Jack Campbell or spend their money on a higher-priced starting goalie.

All of which is to say the Rangers are in excellent shape heading into the off-season by comparison to their rivals. They don’t need to dump salary, buy anyone out or otherwise make any drastic moves to be salary cap compliant. They may even be able to use their cap space to help other teams out of a jam, offering picks or prospects to acquire a good player that another team just can’t afford to keep. It’s an enviable position to be in.

The bottom line is that the Rangers are good, and they are going to be better, both because of internal growth and the ability to add pieces.

When the Rangers organization sent out the now-infamous letter to fans in 2018, advising their supporters that they would be trading familiar faces and embarking on a rebuild, it was thought that a long period of sustained losing might be next. The letter included the statement, “Our promise to you is that our plans will be guided by our singular commitment: ensuring we’re building the foundation for our next Stanley Cup contender.” People appreciated the Rangers’ transparency and their willingness to reboot the system, but not many people thought that the next Stanley Cup contender would arrive quickly.

Well, here we are.

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Chris Gear joined Daily Faceoff in January after a 12-year run with the Vancouver Canucks, most recently as the club’s Assistant General Manager and Chief Legal Officer. Before migrating over to the hockey operations department, where his responsibilities included contract negotiations, CBA compliance, assisting with roster and salary cap management and governance for the AHL franchise, Gear was the Canucks’ vice president and general counsel.

Click here to read Gear’s other Daily Faceoff stories.ADVERTISEMENT – CONTINUE READING BELOW

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Prediction: New York Rangers, 2022-23 Stanley Cup champions

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