The 10 NHL players paid closest to their on-ice values in 2026-27
Perhaps one of the hardest things to pull off when signing players to contracts is locking them in at exactly their market values. Considering the peaks and valleys of NHL players’ careers, they often get signed during high or low points, so their contracts are disproportionate to their on-ice values.
But sometimes, teams get it just right. After looking at which contracts provide their respective teams with the best and worst values in the league, today I’m going to dive into the players signed to contracts closest to their on-ice values right now.
To do so, I’ll be using the contract rating system from my cap ranking series to compare every player’s market value to their on-ice value. For more information on how the contract rating system was put together, you can click here.
The ranking will be made up of the players whose contract ratings are the closest to 0, meaning where they rank in the league for their on-ice values is identical to where they rank for their contracts’ values. Any contracts with similar numerical ratings that are greater or less than 0 will be treated as ties regardless of if the ratings are positive or negative (i.e., +1 and -1 will be ranked the same), while the tiebreakers will go to the players with the higher cap hits.
10. Stuart Skinner, Winnipeg Jets
Cap Hit: $3.75 million (two years remaining)
Contract Rating: -1
Skinner doesn’t exactly have the strongest reputation in the league. Considering he was the face of two Stanley Cup Final losses for the Edmonton Oilers and sometimes lets in soft goals, it’s easy to see why the casual fan would think he has no place in the league. But under the hood, his numbers speak to that of a capable tandem goaltender in the NHL, highlighted by a 54.1% quality start percentage (24th among goalies with 100 games from 2023 to 2026), a 90.46 5v5 save percentage (37th) and a 25.6 5v5 goals saved above expected (18th outright). Even though those numbers swing due to his inconsistencies, it’s still a perfectly fine performance for the 31st-highest cap hit among goalies.
9. Marcus Pettersson, New York Rangers
Cap Hit: $5.5 million (five years remaining)
Contract Rating: -1
The defensive defenseman is always a tough player archetype to properly value. They often spend many years underpaid because teams lack a traditional way to evaluate them. Then when they finally get the recognition they deserve, everyone goes overboard, and the defender gets significantly overpaid, usually during their declining years as well. So it was a good job by both the Vancouver Canucks and Pettersson when they agreed to a six-year contract with a $5.5-million cap hit. He has the 76th-highest cap hit among defensemen, which aligns with where my model ranks him. His top-pair play-driving and defensive results balance out his middling production stats, making him a solid top-four defenseman. He’s since been traded to the Rangers, but they will continue to get that value out of Pettersson for the next few years.
8. Dmitry Orlov, San Jose Sharks
Cap Hit: $6.5 million (one year remaining)
Contract Rating: +1
At the height of his career, Orlov was one of those defensemen who performed better than most people realized. It’s not that the market thought he was bad, not by any means. But he was always considered a general top-four defenseman when his underlying numbers indicated he was one of the game’s better defensemen. He’s not at that level anymore, but at only $6.5 million, he doesn’t need to be.
Orlov’s ability to drive play and defend remains strong. While he’s never been the best producer, he’s coming off a season with a career-high 37 points with the Sharks. All in all, my model considers him the 50th-best defenseman in the league, with the 51st-highest cap hit at the position. On a team that recently invested $17.5 million in Darnell Nurse and Jacob Trouba, Orlov is the type of veteran defenseman San Jose should be signing.
7. Troy Terry, Anaheim Ducks
Cap Hit: $7 million (four years remaining)
Contract Rating: +1
The summer of 2026 was a forgettable one for the Ducks. Between the massive offer sheet to Leo Carlsson, the threat of an offer sheet to Pavel Mintyukov, the rising RFA market raising Cutter Gauthier’s price tag, the dismantling of their blueline, and overpaying A.J. Greer among many others, Anaheim’s mistakes have put them in salary-cap hell. So as they become the face of this new wave of player contracts, it’s at least nice to know they got one right in Terry’s.
Terry, the remaining piece from the beginning of the Ducks’ rebuild, broke out in 2021-22 and has become a consistent 55-65 point scorer; he could probably produce more if he played a full season. His defensive game isn’t the best, but he makes up for it with his chance creation, making him the 86th-best forward in the league with the 87th-highest cap hit at that position. The Ducks getting one of their stars at market value will be huge as they fork over more money for their remaining core talent.
6. Alexis Lafreniere, New York Rangers
Cap Hit: $7.45 million (six years remaining)
Contract Rating: +1
Lafreniere hasn’t exactly had the most traditional path for a first-overall pick. His early years were already abnormal, as the height of his drafting and development occurred during a worldwide pandemic. As a result, his first few years in the NHL weren’t what many expected, with him only producing 10-20 goals and 30-40 points. But he finally broke out with 28 goals and 57 points in 2023-24, and the Rangers bet on that upside with a seven-year contract at a $7.45-million cap hit.
Lafreniere’s production fell again for the following 1.5 seasons, making that contract look like an ugly one. But the second half of his 2025-26 season, where he produced 28 points in his final 27 games, indicates that his best may be coming for Lafreniere, especially after he received a larger role within the team. As most players his age and skill level are being paid twice the money he is, his contract is the perfect fit for him right now.
5. Jake Guentzel, Tampa Bay Lightning
Cap Hit: $9 million (five years remaining)
Contract Rating: +1
The Lightning’s pivot from longtime captain Steven Stamkos to Jake Guentzel in 2024 may have been one of the gutsiest moves we’ve seen a perennial Stanley Cup contender make in quite a while. Once most teams win championships, they become complacent with their core and let loyalty override good decisions. But the Lightning saw Stamkos’ decline in play and, with his contract up in 2024, they moved on from him and opted to bring in Guentzel instead.
And it has worked out. While he brings a different skillset to the table than Stamkos, Guentzel has fit like a glove alongside Nikita Kucherov and Brayden Point. Through the Omaha, Neb., product’s first two seasons in Tampa, he has scored 79 goals and 168 points in 161 games. That has placed him as the 33rd-best forward according to my model, and his cap hit is the 34th-highest at the position, so he’s worth the money he’s being paid right now.
4. Sebastian Aho, Carolina Hurricanes
Cap Hit: $9.75 million (six years remaining)
Contract Rating: +1
Aho has been the model of consistency for years in Carolina. After his 49-point rookie season, his production has always fallen between 0.83 and 1.03 points per game, aside from 89 points in 78 games in 2021-22. Sure, he’s rarely exploded as a world-class center in today’s NHL, but I’m sure the Hurricanes don’t mind that. In fact, it perfectly fits their style of play, as they’ve long been a team who thrives on depth more than star power. Case in point: Aho’s worst stretch of hockey was arguably the 2026 playoffs, and the team still won a Cup. He’s considered the 26th-best forward in the league and has the 27th-highest cap hit. For a team like Carolina, they’ll take that every day for their top-line pivot.
3. Jesper Wallstedt, Minnesota Wild
Cap Hit: $2.2 million (one year remaining)
Contract Rating: 0
At first glance, this might not seem like the strongest compliment to Wallstedt’s play. In a list mostly made up of players in the $5-9 million range, a player making $2.2 million being “of value” would imply they aren’t that great of a player, especially considering how well Wallstedt performed in 2025-26. However, much of this stems from his lack of experience. Remember, games played is a stat I use for my goalie model, as it rewards goaltenders with a heavier workload.
Wallstedt only having one full-time NHL season as a tandem goalie hurts him a bit. Additionally, his poor play prior to 2025-26 also hurts him; even though it was just five games, it still makes up 12.5 percent of his sample size. But last season showed what Wallstedt is capable of at the NHL level, and all signs point to improvement to the point where he’ll surely be worth whatever raise he gets for next year.
2. Ilya Sorokin, New York Islanders
Cap Hit: $8.25 million (six years remaining)
Contract Rating: 0
Sorokin might be the most underrated goaltender in the league. He consistently churns out elite performances in the crease but doesn’t get the credit he should for it (or at least, he should have a Vezina Trophy under his belt by now) because the Islanders teams in front of him have been mediocre since his rise in play. He’s had to bail out some atrocious defensive hockey over the years.
Since Sorokin’s breakout season in 2021-22, only Connor Hellebuyck’s 114.79 5v5 GSAx is higher than Sorokin’s 114.59, and the difference is closer than most people would think. He’s a top-five goaltender for sure, and my model agrees: he’s ranked fifth and also carries the fifth-highest cap hit. Lou Lamoriello had plenty of misses during his time as GM of the Islanders, but Sorokin’s contract wasn’t one of them.
1. Rasmus Dahlin, Buffalo Sabres
Cap Hit: $11 million (six years remaining)
Contract Rating: 0
It might be a bit of a surprise that Dahlin is the first truly elite player to crack this list. After all, the concept of this list was designed for the elite players. They should be the ones getting paid relative to the market value because they set the market. But Connor McDavid signed a discount to help his team win. Some of the best defensemen are in the final years of their deals at prices set in a previous market. A cap hit explosion put players like Leo Carlsson, Connor Bedard, Adam Fantilli and Cutter Gauthier among the highest-paid forwards, throwing off the market.
That leaves Dahlin in a class of his own. The Sabres blueliner has lived up to his potential in recent seasons, and his production, play-driving and defense are all consistent, ranking in (or close to) the top 10 among defensemen. As a result, my model considers him the second-best defender, making his second-highest cap hit all the more fitting for him. And it will only get better. He still has six years left at $11 million per year, and if Cale Makar’s contract is any indication, Dahlin’s comparables are about to sign for almost twice that amount.
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