2025-2026 NHL team preview: Tampa Bay Lightning

Sep 25, 2025, 13:00 EDTUpdated: Sep 25, 2025, 07:44 EDT

2025-2026 NHL team preview: Tampa Bay Lightning

Credit: Kim Klement Neitzel-Imagn Images

LAST SEASON

The Tampa Bay Lightning shocked the hockey world when they elected to not re-sign Steven Stamkos last summer, letting the long-time captain walk to the Nashville Predators. In his place, the Lightning jumped on the big fish in the free-agent market and signed Jake Guentzel. Tampa also shipped Mikhail Sergachev to the now-Utah Mammoth and brought back Ryan McDonagh. All in all, the Bolts had moved some big pieces around in an attempt to reopen their window.

And to some extent, the Lightning did reopen their window. They had their first season with a .600 points percentage since 2021-22, they were extremely consistent all season (never losing more than four games in a row), and they found themselves second in the Atlantic Division. Guentzel fit like a glove next to Nikita Kucherov and Brayden Point, McDonagh was the shutdown presence the Lightning desperately needed, and the added depth of Yanni Gourde and Oliver Bjorkstrand at the trade deadline made the Lightning the most formidable they’d been in years.

Unfortunately, the Lightning’s reward for all that hard work and success was a first-round matchup with the defending Stanley Cup champions in the Florida Panthers. The Bolts were clearly gassed by this point of the season, while the Panthers had done quite a bit of load management as the season wound down, so the series wasn’t close. Florida needed just five games to dispatch the Lightning, and their season was done.

The Lightning didn’t make any big splashes this summer, but for the first time in years, they didn’t lose any big names, either. They made adjustments around the edges of the roster in hopes of solidifying their depth beyond their big names to get another run out of this group. But is this Tampa core still capable of getting out of the Atlantic Division and winning a Stanley Cup, or is their window already shutting?

KEY ADDITIONS & DEPARTURES

Additions

Pontus Holmberg, C
Jakob Pelletier, RW
Boris Katchouk, LW
Sam O’Reilly, C
Scott Sabourin, RW

Departures

Nick Perbix, D (NSH)
Luke Glendening, C (NJD)
Cam Atkinson, RW (UFA)
Ike Howard, LW (EDM)
Conor Sheary, LW (NYR)

OFFENSE

The Lightning had one of the best offenses in the league, ranking first in goals-for per game (3.56) and fifth in power-play percentage (25.9%). That wasn’t necessarily backed up by their ability to create chances, as they were only tied for ninth in 5v5 expected goals for per 60 minutes with 2.63. While they had the talent to boast a 12.31% shooting percentage (second-best in the league), they did overperform a little bit.

The pre-eminent part of the Lightning’s offense is the top line of Kucherov, Point and Guentzel. Kucherov is one of the top talents in the league, with an elite playmaking ability (84 assists in 2024-25) that can make any player a shooting threat, and it doesn’t hurt that he has a great shot himself, even if he’s never topped 44 goals. Point developing his game to be one of the league’s best goal scorers (42 goals) has made him and Kucherov one of the best duos in the league, and the addition of Guentzel (41) has given the Lightning even more goals from the top line.

Brandon Hagel isn’t on the top line, but he also makes up part of the Lightning’s primary scoring threats, as he continues to evolve his game year after year. It feels like just yesterday two first-round picks was a steep price to pay for him, and yet last season he was more than worth it with 35 goals and 90 points. Considering only five of those points came on the power play, there may be even more untapped production there. With his high-end defensive game and aggressive style of play, he’s turning into one of the game’s elite forwards.

Last season saw him flanked by Anthony Cirelli and Nick Paul, with both players posting some of the best numbers of their careers with 59 and 41 points. That line was better known for its defensive play, but them being a scoring threat makes them a tough matchup for any team. Paul is hurt for the first month or so of the season, so until then, Gage Goncalves looks to be their linemate; he was the only other forward not mentioned so far to get more than 20 points.

The additions of Gourde and Bjorkstrand provide the Lightning with one of their more intriguing third lines since Gourde played alongside Blake Coleman and Barclay Goodrow. While they don’t have the relentless forechecking ability that the famous third line did on those 2020 and 2021 Cup-winning squads, both Gourde and Bjorkstrand are still solid scorers and contributed a fair amount after joining the Lightning (14 points in 21 games and nine in 18). Bjorkstrand also provides the Lightning with the right-shot option they’ve lacked without Stamkos, so he’ll get an opportunity to produce on the top power-play unit.

Gourde and Bjorkstrand, along with the up-and-coming Conor Geekie, could provide the Bolts with some solid depth scoring. Beyond the top nine, there aren’t a ton of options for scoring in their forward ranks. Holmberg and Pelletier are interesting depth pieces but are better known for their play-driving ability than their scoring.

On the blueline, expect Hedman to carry most of the offense and quarterback the power play. His defensive game has slipped in recent years, but he’s still an elite producer on the back end with 66 points. Besides him, Darren Raddysh has developed into a solid discount for Sergachev with back-to-back 30+ seasons and will man the second unit. McDonagh (31 points) still gets some points at 36 years old, and J.J. Moser also produces relative to his minutes (0.47 5v5 points per 60 in the last three years).

DEFENSE

The Lightning saw a big shift in their defensive play last season, jumping from 2.59 5v5 expected goals against per 60 in 2023-24 (t-14th) to 2.39 last season (eighth). That helped in their results as well, as they were fourth in goals against per game (2.63) and sixth in penalty kill (81.6%).

The biggest x-factor in that shift was the return of McDonagh. His two seasons in Nashville meant Hedman went from thriving in a slightly-sheltered role to getting the tough minutes, and he handled those minutes very poorly (0.263 5v5 regularized adjusted plus-minus xGA/60 from 2022-24). With McDonagh back, he was the shutdown defenseman again (-0.196 last season), while Hedman got those sweet cushy minutes (-0.012).

Rounding out the Lightning’s top four will likely be Moser and Erik Cernak. Moser helped soften the blow of losing Sergachev last season with his defensive play in a top-four role (-0.042 5v5 RAPM xGA/60 last season), while Cernak is as reliable as always (-0.024). Even Raddysh (0.006) and Emil Lilleberg (-0.014) are solid defensively in depth roles, meaning Jon Cooper shouldn’t be worried about his back end.

Up front, Cirelli (-0.238 5v5 RAPM xGA/60 last season) is the Lightning’s answer to Aleksander Barkov, Sam Reinhart and Auston Matthews and Nick Suzuki in the Atlantic Division with his defensive prowess. Cirelli’s intelligence in his own end is some of the best in the league, and it made him a Selke finalist behind Florida’s two-headed two-way monster last season. His line with Hagel (-0.148) and Paul (-0.022) were a great shutdown unit as well (20th in 5v5 xGA/60 among lines with 200+ minutes with 2.23). That elite defensive play is needed because the Lightning’s top line of Kucherov, Point and Guentzel is on the other end of the spectrum (18th-worst in 5v5 xGA/60 with 2.79). They need the easier minutes to thrive, and Cirelli, Hagel and Paul give them just that.

The rest of the Lightning’s depth also provides some solid two-way play. Gourde (-0.068 5v5 RAPM xGA/60) and Bjorkstrand (-0.124) will be solid support options on the third line, while Holmberg (-0.203), Goncalves (-0.066) and Girgensons (-0.254) will be black holes on the ice (so don’t expect a lot of offense from them either).

GOALTENDING

Another reason for the Lightning’s improved goals-against numbers in 2024-25 was Andrei Vasilevskiy’s return to form, although Tampa’s improved defense helped the 31-year-old netminder as well. Regardless, the Lightning will take a .921 save percentage and 21.19 5v5 goals saved above expected in 2024-25 over a .900 SV% and -7.64 5v5 GSAx in 2023-24. A healthy Vasilevskiy continues to be one of the best goaltenders in the league, with his size and athleticism still unmatched.

Healthy is the key word here though. Not only are there some concerns about Vasilevskiy’s status going into the season as he continues to miss training camp, but he gets overworked in the regular season, which hurts his playoff performance – but more on that in a second.

If Vasilevskiy’s hurt, Jonas Johansson is signed for two more seasons, and that should scare the Lightning. While he was good enough during Vasilevskiy’s absence at the start of the 2023-24 season (.895 SV% and -1.74 5v5 GSAx in 17 games), Johansson really hasn’t challenged for more starts otherwise (.891 SV% and -3.92 5v5 GSAx in 28 games since). There isn’t an experienced goalie behind him on the depth chart, so it’s Vasilevskiy or bust in Tampa yet again.

COACHING

What else is there to say about Jon Cooper that hasn’t been said already? His .638 points percentage is behind only Scotty Bowman, Rod Brind’Amour and Bruce Cassidy among coaches with 500 games in the regular season, and while Cooper likely won’t best Bowman for most Cup wins, the Prince George product will certainly be happy with at least two on his resume.

There are really only three ways Cooper can lose his job in Tampa Bay. Julien BriseBois could struggle to build a quality roster, with Cooper then acting as the scapegoat. He may finally reach the point where he’s too stubborn and can’t keep up with the ever-evolving game. Or, as the blueprint laid out by Mike Sullivan and the Pittsburgh Penguins this summer showed us, the Lightning are the team that passes Cooper by, and out of respect to his legacy, Tampa and Cooper mutually part ways, and he takes on a new challenge elsewhere. Regardless, he’s the best of the best right now, and it’s a crime he’s only been a Jack Adams Award finalist twice and never won it.

ROOKIES

Uh, next question please?

But seriously, expectations should be very low with the Lightning’s rookies this season. The only prospect of note in their pipeline right now is the newly acquired Sam O’Reilly, and barring a phenomenal camp, he’ll be back in the OHL this season. Dylan Duke has the potential to develop into a solid bottom-six forward, possibly even this year. But otherwise, the state of Tampa Bay’s rookie options this year is barren – the result of spending so many seasons trading picks and prospects to stay in contention.

BURNING QUESTIONS

1. Can the Lightning find balance in their goaltending deployment? Vasilevskiy has played 60+ games in three of the past four seasons, with the exception being his 2023-24 campaign where he missed the first month and a half of the season. As a result, he’s exhausted come playoff time, with an .881 SV% (eighth-worst in the league in the past three playoffs) and a -6.59 5v5 GSAx (third-worst). In a perfect world, the Lightning can get Vasilevskiy’s starts down to 50-55 to preserve him, but Johansson hasn’t played well enough to get more games. Tampa Bay will either need to see improvement from Johansson or find a solution elsewhere if they want to lighten Vasilevskiy’s load in hopes of a better performance in the playoffs.

2. Who will the next breakout player be for Tampa? The Lightning have done a fantastic job of developing players who emerge from out of nowhere to become bigger names in the NHL, like Gourde, Tyler Johnson and Ross Colton. The Bolts will need that development yet again this season if they want to stay in Cup contention. Who will step up to the plate? Pelletier and Holmberg were intriguing offseason additions, while Duke could be an internal option.

3. How much is left in the tank? This is the question for Tampa. All that matters while Kucherov, Hedman, Vasilevskiy, Point and co. are in their primes is winning as many Cups as they can. But is this group capable of reaching that level again? The Lightning are four years removed from their last Cup win and three from their last playoff series win. Considering this might be the deepest Lightning squad since their 2022 Cup Final run, this season may be their best chance to do it again.

PREDICTION

The regular season is the easy part to predict. The roster will play to their standards and guide the Lightning to an easy playoff spot, possibly with home-ice advantage involved. They’ll also probably see a couple players (Kucherov, Cirelli, Hedman, Vasilevskiy, etc.) in the conversation for some awards.

The playoffs will be the bigger story, which is something you’d never expect to hear about a team that started off the decade with back-to-back championships and three straight Final appearances. But when you’ve lost in the first round for three straight seasons and have only four wins in that span, the questions are deserved.

Until the Lightning prove us wrong, it’s difficult to see them getting out of the Atlantic corner of the bracket, especially if they cross paths with the Panthers. But then again, that’s the mentality the Lightning thrive in.

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POST SPONSORED BY bet365

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