Is this finally the year of the Alexis Lafrenière breakout?

Oct 23, 2026, 09:00 EDT

Is this finally the year of the Alexis Lafrenière breakout?

Macklin Celebrini was drafted first overall in 2024. He already has 192 points in 161 games for a points-per-game average of 1.19.

Alexis Lafrenière was selected four years before that. He has 264 points in 474 games over seven years, with a career PPG of 0.56.

One of them has become an instant superstar. The other was immediately deemed a bust.

Expectations are (understandably) always sky-high for first-overall picks. So when one doesn’t pop off, people notice. Lafrenière, now 25, has been lucky on the injury front throughout his career, missing just four regular-season games dating back to 2021. But he hasn’t been able to produce more than 57 points in a season, something he has done twice. For the most part, his overall production has been underwhelming.

That seems to have changed this year. Through 12 games with the New York Rangers, Lafrenière is up to eight goals and 14 points, giving him a full-season pace of 94 points. It’s still extremely early, but he’s been a man on a mission as of late as the Rangers look to get themselves back into the playoffs this spring – even without Igor Shesterkin.

It’s not like Lafrenière hasn’t had strong stretches before. But after a weak 2024-25, followed by a slow start to 2025-26, many wondered if the Quebec native’s time in the Big Apple had run its course.

However, the Artemi Panarin trade to Los Angeles allowed Lafrenière to take on a bigger role, which coincided with a much stronger second half. Prior to the trade, Lafrenière had 29 points in 53 games. But once he took over for Panarin following the Olympic break, Lafrenière registered 14 goals and 28 points in the final 29 outings. His style of play has adjusted under coach Mike Sullivan, too, with Lafrenière doing a better job of getting the puck down the ice and initiating plays on the attack.

“I think he’s opened up, or developed, other aspects of his offensive game,” Sullivan told the media prior to Thursday’s game in Toronto. “In particular, his grind game down low in the offensive zone. He’s always been a guy that’s been dangerous off the rush. He’s a talented player. Rush offense tends to be talent-driven.

“But one of the things that I tried to challenge him with, when I first became the coach here, was that the better teams in the league a lot of times get numbers back and take the rush away. So then what? How do you produce offense, right? I tried to challenge him on his down-low game.”

Daily Faceoff’s New York-based reporter, Jonny Lazarus, has been highly impressed with how Lafrenière has evolved his game.

“Sullivan has shown a ton of confidence in him based on where he’s played in the lineup and the fact that he’s been playing 5-on-6 to close out games,” Lazarus said. “Gabe Perreault has been such a nice complement to him with his playmaking ability. Lafrenière at times would defer to a guy like Panarin but now has linemates deferring to him. It also seems like he’s in better physical shape. His feet have been constantly moving, he’s been first on pucks, winning battles, and just has a ton of confidence built up.”

The Perreault connection is nothing to sneeze at. He’s a skilled winger capable of getting the puck into scoring situations better than most young forwards in the league. With Mika Zibanejad holding down the fort in the middle, the trio has an expected goals-for percentage of 61.8 – good for 10th in the NHL among lines with at least 60 minutes played, and seventh among top-six combinations. Last year, the trio played at a 48.8 percent rate. Of the three, Lafrenière has served as the primary triggerman while still driving play. Sure, he’s shooting at a clip north of 30 percent, which isn’t sustainable over 82 games. But even if that settles into the 16-to-18 percent range, it would still easily surpass his career best of 14.2 percent.

“He just seems to be taking the next step in his career,” said Rangers forward J.T. Miller. “It’s been only 12 games, but he seems to be learning a lot. He turned 25, and that’s where you can take a really big jump and start to take your game to another level. Obviously, he’s been a really big driver offensively for us, but his 200-foot game has also come a long way. I’m happy for him.”

Lafrenière’s 19:01 of average ice time is a full three minutes higher than his career mark. His role on the man advantage has climbed to more than three minutes a night. Prior to last season, he had never recorded more than eight power-play points in a single campaign before erupting for 24. This year, Lafrenière already sits at six through 12 games. He may have been more of a secondary piece in the past, but he has grown into an everyday contributor in all situations this season.

“He’s having fun,” said Rangers defenseman Sean Durzi. “He’s playing at a high level, and he believes in himself. It feels like a lot of guys are having fun and enjoying it this year.”

It took six years, four coaches and a blockbuster trade to clear the runway, but the Rangers are finally seeing the version of Lafrenière they thought they were getting more than half a decade ago. His sky-high shooting percentage will inevitably cool off, but the underlying process, deployment, and poise are undeniable. He may not be tearing up the league at Celebrini’s pace, but Lafrenière is finally delivering on his pedigree. If Lafrenière can simply cement himself as the 80-point, play-driving winger he has looked like throughout 2026, the “bust” label will become a dead narratvive.

PRESENTED BY DAILY FACEOFF GEAR

Daily Faceoff has new merch. Rep the game you love with premium Nation Gear x Levelwear tees, hoodies, hats and layers — designed for hockey fans on game day and every day.

SHOP DAILY FACEOFF → nationgear.ca

Recently by Steven Ellis

MORE FACEOFF.IN YOUR INBOX.

CLICK TO SUBSCRIBE TO OUR WEEKLY NEWSLETTER