DFO Mailbag: Are the Oilers or Leafs more improved?
The continued dog days of summer mean another DFO mailbag.
Why not turn some of the spotlight over the summer to our readers after nine months of hogging it to ourselves? Spoiler for this week’s though: many of the replies we got were very Philadelphia Flyers-centric. I guess it’s obvious where I’ve historically had the biggest following, eh?
Let’s jump right in.
What's going on with the Ryan Johansen case?
— Bill (@22AccordSE) July 21, 2025As far as I’ve heard, it has been radio silence. For context: the Flyers terminated the final year of Ryan Johansen’s contract ($4 million AAV) that he originally signed with the Nashville Predators for breaching his contract. After the Colorado Avalanche acquired him at 50% cost in the summer of 2023, he was flipped to the Flyers ahead of the 2024 NHL Trade Deadline as part of the Sean Walker trade.
The Flyers got out of the entire $4 million AAV when he was terminated and have had no recapture penalty to this point. The arbitration case was already held; there has been little information in the aftermath of it. Could there be repercussions down the road for GM Danny Briere to deal with from a salary cap perspective? Perhaps, but there is nothing new to report at this time.
Which team has improved the most/least between Oilers and Leafs this offseason? It’s a conundrum 🧐
— jeff putnam (@Putsky88) July 22, 2025This is actually a fascinating question, as the two Canadian teams with the most likely Stanley Cup aspirations (sorry, Winnipeg) are once again under the microscope this offseason.
The Toronto Maple Leafs had a more polarizing summer, largely due to the fact that the “core four” is no longer intact, following Mitch Marner’s departure to the Vegas Golden Knights. They didn’t do a whole lot of anything else aside from adding depth center Nicolas Roy from Vegas and winger Matias Maccelli from the Utah Mammoth. The defense and goaltending are status quo.
The Edmonton Oilers did hardly anything, rather than moving on from depth forwards Victor Arvidsson, Evander Kane, Corey Perry and Jeff Skinner and replacing them with Isaac Howard from the Tampa Bay Lightning and signing Curtis Lazar in Free Agency. Much like the Leafs, the Oilers’ blueline and (for some reason) goaltending are the exact same as they were from the last time we saw them.
It’s hard to pick which team has improved more because neither has really done anything to fix their preexisting issues. But between the two it’s the Oilers. Their depth scoring was an issue this season; Howard’s pedigree/potential can help there, while Lazar has a proven track record of being a solid depth piece who can contribute here and there. Neither team had a tremendous ooffseason but with the Leafs bracing for a massive hit to their offense in light of Marner’s departure, the Oilers come out ahead to this point.
Who are your early Calder Trophy favourites?
— Dylan H. Robillard (@HendrixHockey_) July 22, 2025I am admittedly not a prospects guy and would typically defer to my colleague Steven Ellis for this, but I’ll give it my best kick at the can. Montreal Canadiens forward Ivan Demidov is the first name that jumps out in my mind.
After coming over late last season to join the Canadiens ahead of a (albeit short) playoff run, Demidov showed off his skill and gave the Montreal faithful all the reason in the world to get excited. With the path being wide open for him to play in a top-six role and anchor the club’s power play, I see no other clear-cut favorite.
Why did Shabanov sign with the Isles after so many people were certain that he was signing with the Flyers?
What changed?
This is one of those situations that reminds us all (even so-called “insiders,” like myself) not to believe everything you hear and read on the internet. I can only offer my own perspective on what happened here, but the best I can piece together is that the Flyers were never as close to landing Shabanov as many initially thought.
For weeks leading up to July, I was told by those I trust that it was more or less a slam dunk and July 1 would see the Flyers formally sign Shabanov; clearly, that wasn’t the case. Could things have changed on a dime? Could Shabanov have been playing the Flyers? All possible, but my most trusted team source played down the Shabanov speculation throughout the process.
So maybe he knew something the others I spoke with didn’t? I guess we’ll never know the true answer, but the main takeaway from this is to always let things play out – especially when involving Russian players coming overseas.
Carter verdict expected this week. If innocent do you think he is on an NHL Roster by January?
— MST (@TuttyT88) July 21, 2025This is certainly a spicy meatball to track this week. By the letter of the law, if found innocent, Carter Hart (and the other accused players) will be able to make their return to the NHL. But that doesn’t necessarily mean that teams will be prepared to offer up the opportunity on their respective rosters.
Among all five, Hart is, in my mind, the best player. From a pure talent perspective, I think there would be a handful of teams (including the Flyers) that would welcome the help between the pipes. The bigger question is would a team be prepared to withstand the (probable) public backlash and potential optics nightmare?
All things remaining mostly equal, I think, if innocent, Hart will be on a roster by midseason. My early prediction would be the Oilers.