Fantasy Hockey buys, sells and holds: Embrace Slafkovsky’s pattern
It’s no longer quite so early in the fantasy hockey season. In most league configurations, we’re about to cross the one-third mark. That means it might be time to wade into the trade waters, whether you’re seeking a spark for your struggling squad or trying to escape a smoke-and-mirrors start by cashing out some overperforming assets.
Who are the right players to buy, sell and hold right now? Here are a few to consider for each category. Remember that each recommendation is relative; even an elite first- or second-round fantasy asset can be a buy low if he’s performing “only” like a top-50 player right now.
BUY
Wyatt Johnston, C, Dallas Stars
Johnston scored the second-most power play goals in a single season during the salary-cap era last year, so a regression felt inevitable, as predicted by my colleague Scott Maxwell. That said, 5-on-5 positive regression, and the natural progression of a 23-year-old entering his prime, should’ve offset the downshift in power-play puck luck, meaning Johnston could stay in his 45-goal range. Through 16 games, he’s scored three times, converting on just 7.1 percent of his shots. He shot 17.1 percent over his first four seasons before this one. Better yet, Johnston is shooting the puck more than he ever has, and his 5-on-5 individual expected goals mark is higher than last season’s. He’s a screaming buy. He’s about to go nuclear and score five times in a two-game stretch. If you can get him even for 95 cents on the dollar, do it.
Moritz Seider, D, Detroit Red Wings
Seider has still produced decently enough. His combo-meal banger stats are on track with his excellent norms. He’s produced 11 points in 19 games. But the goal total is way low. The Wings should, in theory, get a return for Dylan Larkin in a trade relatively soon, which may net some NHL talent to augment the Wings’ current lineup and top power-play unit. Seider’s shooting luck will positively regress, and the assist total might improve if his supporting cast does.
Zach Werenski, D, Columbus Blue Jackets
Werenski epitomizes the aforementioned “relative” example. He’s the reigning Norris Trophy winner. He was a top 15-20 pick at worst in virtually all redraft leagues. How are you going to buy low on him? It’s about sending an elite player back, but maybe one slightly overperforming – or maybe Werenski is the “loss” you take on a deal to get better elsewhere. For instance, you could offer Evan Bouchard for Werenski and then net a major upgrade at forward or goalie in a two-for-two trade. Werenski’s totals are relatively modest largely because Columbus is tied for the fewest games played in the league; with 68 games left on his schedule, he has a lot of volume production to offer you going forward. I like him for another 80-point campaign.
SELL
Artturi Lehkonen, LW, Colorado Avalanche
You won’t slip Lehkonen past anyone in a hardcore league. I get it. But in a casual league in which a GM’s eyes light up upon seeing a player’s high rank? Lehkonen has been electric with 13 goals in 19 games. That total has come on ridiculous 31.0 percent shooting. The regression has already begun, as Lehkonen has scored just once in his past five games, so you need to get proactive moving him before it’s too late – especially given his history of missing time with injuries. I’d try to trade Lehkonen for a proven guy off to a terrible start – such as Owen Tippett – while netting a win for yourself at another position.
Vasily Podkolzin, LW, Edmonton Oilers
Recommending a Podkolzin sell goes beyond stating the obvious. Yes, of course his piping-hot start was unsustainable. The regression has already happened. He exploded for a 7-5-12 stat line in his first nine games and has 2-1-3 in 11 games since. More concerning than the scoring dip for me: the depth chart. Podkolzin has enjoyed spending the season stapled to the NHL’s top two scorers, Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl. The Oilers have gone for a top-heavy attack, but that might change as the season progresses. They’re going to get healthier. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Zach Hyman recently returned from injuries. Matt Savoie and Ike Howard eventually will, too. And the Oilers may pursue another impact forward via trade. Coach Mike Babcock will have more permutations to try, which could even include splitting up McDavid and Draisaitl, and it’s possible Podkolzin ends up a middle-six forward again. Heck, he’s already been moved off PP1. I was bullish on him as a sleeper pick in drafts – but we’ve turned our profit. Now it’s time to cash out. I did in my main league.
Mark Stone, RW, Vegas Golden Knights
Mark Stone is a great hockey player. That doesn’t mean he isn’t a fantasy-hockey sell high. The point production is sustainable; he’s been roughly a point-per-game player his entire time as a Vegas Golden Knight. The 10 goals on 27 percent shooting suggest a bit of negative regression looms, though Stone has always been an accurate shooter. What worries me more is the games-played total. Stone has appeared in all 20 of Vegas’ games so far. Over the previous five seasons, he averaged 52 games played a year. Stone’s chronic back issues often lead to extended IR stints and/or load management in the second half, a.k.a. the fantasy stretch drive (and playoffs for head-to-head leagues), as Vegas tries to keep Stone fresh for the postseason. Now is the time to deal him. He’ll break your heart if you hold him too long.
HOLD
Darren Raddysh, D, Toronto Maple Leafs
The Leafs are freefalling in the standings, but they remain a potent offensive club, sitting 12th in goals per game and fifth in power-play efficiency. Raddysh has just one goal through 20 games in his first season with his hometown team after breaking out for 22 goals and 70 points last season, but the opportunities haven’t gone anywhere. He’s playing 3:26 per night on the power play, not a huge drop from the 3:45 he averaged last season. He’s putting 2.3 shots per game on goal. He’s not tracking to duplicate his career year, but that was never our expectation. I was hoping for a 15-45-60 type of year, and I expect he’ll produce at that pace from here on out. He scored his first goal of the season Tuesday night, and that might nudge the floodgates open.
Juraj Slafkovsky, LW, Montreal Canadiens
Every year, the enigmatic 2022 first-overall pick struggles early, leading to handwringing from fans and think pieces from media. Lean into that. Use it. We know the pattern for the big fella by now. From October through January, he averages 45 points per 82 games. From February through April: 73 points per 82 games. Those are insane splits. He’s a second-half player for whatever reason, and the sample size is big enough now that we shouldn’t treat it as a fluke. Go get him.
Dan Vladar & Joseph Woll, G, Philadelphia Flyers
Vladar and Woll have split starts evenly so far this season, capping both goalies’ fantasy values. But I have them in my (16-team, 23-man-roster) league, and I ain’t shopping them. They’re both good goaltenders. Woll has graded out as one of the best in the league in goals saved above expected, while Vladar has been mid-pack and better than that if you remove his awful first game of the season. They’re playing on a team that should start improving eventually because of coach Rick Tocchet’s conservative scheme. It’s actually beginning to happen already under the hood. The Flyers sit in the top half of the NHL in expected goals against at 5-on-5 over their past 10 games. The bleeding in their own end has quietly stopped, and their goalies’ fantasy numbers should improve as a result – albeit more so in the rate stats than the win column unless the Flyers start scoring more.
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