Father Time 2025: Are McDavid, Binnington and others on the decline?
All rise. Court is back in session. The Honorable Father Time is presiding.
We know that Father Time is undefeated, an inevitable force that slows speed bursts, freezes reflexes and takes sledgehammers to knees. The guy doesn’t lose — though Sidney Crosby and Alex Ovechkin are giving him all he can handle these days.
One year ago, four star forwards stepped before the court for rulings on whether they had begun their career declines. This time around, we’re hearing the cases of three forwards and two goaltenders, each revealing cracks in their armor in recent seasons: J.T. Miller; Jordan Binnington; Connor McDavid (yes, seriously); Filip Forsberg; and Linus Ullmark.
How will Father Time weigh these salacious, high-profile cases? Is there hope any of them can get off with good behavior? Or will these impact veterans face ongoing dates with decline?
💼 On the Docket
Before we begin, here are the common criteria that bring the accused to court today in front of Father Time. For those asking, Father Time is not Lou Lamoriello’s side hustle as he transitions from GM to consultant with the New York Islanders.
- No major injuries or significant missed time
- Between the ages of 28 and 32
- Signs of statistical decline over multiple seasons
- Played in at least one All-Star Game
- Earning $6 million or more this season
The five cases will be assessed a concern level on a four-point scale. A single hourglass (⌛) leaves the most hope for recovery. The dreaded four hourglasses (⌛⌛⌛⌛) screams that Father Time’s icy grip appears irreversible — the player could be headed to the Nashville Predators at any moment.
J.T. Miller, New York Rangers
Age: 32
Contract: Year 3 of 7 ($8 Million AAV)
The Evidence: 51-point pace
🔼 The Exhibit: Miller scored at a 91-point pace over parts of five seasons in Vancouver. After an ugly divorce with the Canucks in January, he was productive (35 points in 32 games) in Manhattan. But it’s been a frustrating start this season: Miller’s point rate has been slashed by more than half from two seasons ago.
The Prosecution: We understand the defendant is an elite setup man and power play specialist. About that… he’s on pace for only 31 assists and has four power-play points in 29 games. Worse yet, the Rangers’ captain has zero primary assists with the man advantage. [One juror passes out]. This is the same guy that was third in the NHL with 62 primary power play assists over the previous four seasons.
The Defense: New head coach Mike Sullivan has New York playing low-scoring games, so Miller is the victim here. He’s battled lingering ailments since training camp. [Miller enters the court on crutches]. The team is averaging only 2.2 power plays, and he’s factored on just 44% of power-play goals when on the ice. This is more a function of opportunity and bad luck on touches. Get off this gritty warrior’s back already.
Father Time’s Verdict: ⌛⌛⌛ … There’s enough physical evidence not to write off Miller. We should also expect a point bump soon as on-ice power-play shooting percentages regress. But 14 years into a hard-nosed career, there’s little reason to hope for 30 goals or 80 points in his future. A diminished version is still creating enough offense to be a difference maker. The court’s ruling: stayed charges. Father Time has one year to resume prosecution, allowing the defendant to return to full health.
Jordan Binnington, St. Louis Blues
Age: 32
Contract: Year 5 of 6 ($6 Million AAV)
The Evidence: .875 save percentage
🔼 The Exhibit: It’s been a brutal first two months for Binnington. By allowing -14.8 goals above expected — the worst mark in the NHL — he’s been a key factor in the Blues’ derailed season.
The Prosecution: Canada’s 4 Nations Face-off hero has looked lost. Of Binnington’s 18 starts, eight were ‘Really Bad’ per Hockey-Reference (save percentage below .850). He hasn’t won consecutive games yet on a team that’s been tight defensively. Having ice in your veins doesn’t help if you take your team from the playoff hunt in November. [Please stop slashing your lawyer, Mr. Binnington, or you’ll be held in contempt.]
The Defense: Streaky play is common for the defendant. He’s notoriously hot and cold. Only once in his last seven seasons has Binnington been notably above average statistically. On a team that’s been a hot mess and one of the lowest scoring in the NHL, he’s hardly been the only problem in St. Louis. With an Olympic roster spot all but assured, Binnington will flip the switch soon.
Father Time’s Verdict: ⌛⌛ 1/2 … Binnington’s a confident athlete who can carry a team for a while, not an elite starter. It means the 32-year-old has less margin for error should his physical skills erode. Since the 2019 Stanley Cup, Binnington’s 7-14 in the postseason, poking holes in his clutch reputation. But he’s typically much better in the second half. So, despite the spooky start to 2025-26, Doug Armstrong has agreed to supervise the defendant closely through the Olympics in February.
Connor McDavid, Edmonton Oilers
Age: 28
Contract: Year 8 of 8 ($12.5 Million AAV) + 2-year extension ($12.5 Million AAV)
Evidence: Lowest 5-on-5 point production of career
🔼 The Exhibit: McDavid is competing for a scoring title with the worst 5-on-5 output of his 11-year career. That’s a truly prolific player. But the numbers don’t lie. In hockey’s most common game state, he’s comfortably been his least productive ever.
The Prosecution: Order, order, in the court room. We’re not here to criticize the best player of this generation. McDavid’s second in the NHL in points (44) while scoring goals around his career average. He could get 30 points this month and be the frontrunner for major awards by January. But there are reasons to doubt that. McDavid’s 44 points look like this: 18 on power plays; four into empty nets; two in overtime; two with an extra attacker. To be clear, these all count. But that only leaves 18 points at 5-on-5.
That’s despite playing his most 5-on-5 minutes since he was 22. By nearly every possible measure below, the Oilers’ captain has stopped creating offense like the second coming of Mario Lemieux at 5-on-5. From basic stats to advanced measures, it’s mostly been a five-year fade.
| 5v5 Stat* | 2021-22 | 2022-23 | 2023-24 | 2024-25 | 2025-26 |
| Primary A/60 | 1.08 | 0.92 | 1.56 | 1.20 | 0.69 |
| Primary PTS/60 | 2.07 | 2.39 | 2.48 | 1.98 | 1.62 |
| Shots/60 | 9.35 | 9.59 | 8.56 | 7.39 | 6.94 |
| ixG/60 | 1.03 | 1.00 | 0.93 | 0.95 | 0.83 |
| iHDCF/60 | 5.11 | 4.68 | 3.89 | 4.16 | 3.47 |
| Takeaways/60 | 2.98 | 2.57 | 2.77 | 1.40 | 1.04 |
| Faceoff % | 54.9 | 51.3 | 51.8 | 47.5 | 46.3 |
| On Ice GF% | 59.3 | 54.7 | 61.2 | 54.8 | 47.1 |
| On Ice xG% | 59.0 | 57.7 | 61.9 | 60.6 | 52.9 |
*Natural Stat Trick Glossary
The Defense: The only Kryptonite for this generational star is his own teammates. Another glacial start by Edmonton has forced McDavid to play big minutes to keep the team afloat. That’s after consecutive soul-sucking Cup runs. And who cares how he gets points or how much he plays? Despite the shakiness and constant line shuffling around him, McDavid finds the scoresheet. NHL Edge says he has the fastest peak speed in the league (24.6 mph) this season and more than double anyone else’s speed bursts of 22+ mph.
Father Time’s Verdict: ⌛ 1/2 … McDavid clearly isn’t dominating at 5-on-5 like he used to. This doesn’t mean he can’t win another Art Ross Trophy or lead Canada to Olympic gold or carry the Oilers to a Stanley Cup. This summer, I forecasted that he could still be the best player in the world in 2030. He’s that special. McDavid just isn’t the same cheat code he was in his mid-20s at even-strength. Ruling? Father Time offers four months of parole to prove he’s still better than Nathan MacKinnon.
Filip Forsberg, Nashville Predators
Age: 31
Contract: Year 4 of 8 ($8.5 Million AAV)
The Evidence: 57-point pace
🔼 The Exhibit: Two seasons ago, Forsberg finished sixth in the NHL in goals (48) and was named to the second All-Star team at left wing. He’s currently trending for 28 goals and the worst points-per-game (0.69) over his dozen full-time seasons.
The Prosecution: The Swedish sniper has zero goals and four assists on the power play in 29 games. He hit double-digit goals the last two seasons, showing how much touch he’s lost with the man advantage. Forsberg’s averaging 3.1 shots per game, a 36% drop from his signature season. NHL Edge shows his speed bursts over 20 mph are way down: 88 in 2023-24; 58 last year; a pace of 42 this year.
The Defense: Can the court stenographer read back the prosecution’s statement? [The Swedish sniper has zero goals and four assists on the power play in 29 games.] See, your Honor: Nashville’s lifeless power play is draining Mr. Forsberg’s stat line. Opposing goalies have a preposterous .934 power play SV% when he’s on the ice. That can’t last. Forsberg’s furiously driving 5-on-5 play (55.5% xGF) and creating scoring chances at his usual rate. He’s simply on a terrible team (7-14-8 in regulation) with a bottom-third power play.
Father Time’s Verdict: ⌛ 1/2 … Forsberg has to wear some of Nashville’s struggles, and those speed numbers are a little eerie. But that man-advantage dam is about to burst with points. His output has a lower ceiling now given the state of the franchise. Between Ryan O’Reilly, Steven Stamkos, Roman Josi, and Jonathan Marchessault, Forsberg’s playing on a great power play unit — in 2021. He’s sentenced to five years of hard labor in a rebuild, but not a rapid decline. The court also requests that he maintains his fun moustache.
Linus Ullmark, Ottawa Senators
Age: 32
Contract: Year 1 of 4 ($8.25 Million AAV)
Evidence: .877 save percentage
🔼 The Exhibit: While no one expects Ullmark to repeat his brilliant Vezina-winning 2022-23 season in Boston, his early-season struggles are part of a four-year dip by GSAx. That’s second-worst in the NHL.
The Prosecution: Ottawa has been elite defensively but are allowing goals at a bottom-third rate. They can’t make any ground in the Eastern Conference with Ullmark’s shaky play. [Someone shouts “Justice for Travis Green!” from the balcony.] Ullmark has a ghastly .739 high-danger SV% vs. an NHL average of .809 this season. It’s a clear sign he isn’t making The Big Save, which was once his calling card.
The Defense: Mr. Ullmark has still been a reliable No. 1 goalie over the previous two seasons (.912 SV%). Let’s not overreact from two clumsy months. He’s kept it to two goals or less in five of his last eight starts, so the tides are turning for him in the Senators’ crease. Give a Vezina winner some patience, would you?
Father Time’s Verdict: ⌛⌛ 1/2 … Ullmark’s never been asked to carry a true starter’s workload. It hasn’t gone well this season giving it a spin at 32. Compared to his peak, Ullmark’s plainly not that guy anymore. But his recent track record suggests a rebound to capable goaltending should be in the cards. The court sentences him to light duty with reasonable grounds for rehabilitation this winter.
👨🏻⚖️ Court is now adjourned.
Data from Hockey-Reference, Natural Stat Trick, HockeyStats.com, NHL Edge, Puckpedia
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