Hall of Fame tiers: Which NHL stars are destined for immortality?
The Class of 2025 will be formally inducted into the Hockey Hall of Fame on Monday night in Toronto.
The eight-person cohort was named in June to considerable acclaim at the time. But when it comes to the Hall of Fame, it’s always more fun to look forward than backward.
Right now, the NHL is bursting with star power. It’s a product of the Sidney Crosby and Alex Ovechkin generation enduring so improbably long to collide with the generation of Connor McDavid and Cale Makar. The result? The league has a tremendous wealth of future Hall of Famers doing battle nightly.
Today, we’re tackling the active candidates head on. All of them.
45 players have been tiered and their cases will be heard. My hope is that this article becomes your annual November guide for Hockey Hall of Fame debates. Debates on greatness are the jet fuel for sports fandom across group chats, social media, locker rooms and pubs worldwide. In this golden age of superstars, which faces will be etched in the Hall’s exalted plaque room one day?
PPS System
Many publications have tiered active Hall of Fame candidates over the years. But today’s article will be different. Having a recognized, living, breathing Hall of Fame scoring system helps. The Pidutti Point Share (PPS) system — a single-digit, comprehensive Hall-worthiness metric — was launched three years ago. Since then? The system has been a go-to for hockey fans and media. It’s served as a statistical sanity check for hot takes by using era-adjusted data to equitably compare generations.
How does it work? PPS scores a player using six factors: Career (production); Pace (efficiency); Peak (best seven seasons); Playoffs (postseason games and Cup count); International (best-on-best events); and Award Shares (voting share of major awards).
By having a score for each player in history, we can benchmark anyone against a Hall of Fame standard that evolves based on the number of players presently inducted. Here are the tiers of PPS:
- Inner Circle: a top-40 player in NHL history; a living legend
- Qualified: well above standard (+15 or more); an easy call deserving first-ballot consideration
- Borderline/Above: slightly above standard (0 to +15); player warrants induction but expect a debate
- Borderline/Below: slightly below standard (0 to -10); player falls just short but expect a debate
- Hall of Very Good: below the standard (-10 to -25); a distinguished career but not a Hall of Famer
A player’s PPS score should act as a starting point. But there is more to a career than numbers. PPS doesn’t account for: sportsmanship and character (attributes per the HHOF’s by-laws); non-NHL play (i.e., junior, college, other pro leagues); international play outside best-on-best formats; social impact; pioneering influence; signature moments; records held; or clutch play. These critical elements are left to you as the user to add or subtract from a player’s score — within reason.
Forwards
Forwards have the easiest time getting into the Hall of Fame, the position receiving a favorable slice of the six-player distribution on the ice. Most potential forward candidates that compile significant career totals or dominate for several seasons in shorter careers are typically inducted eventually.
Post-expansion forwards elected: 64
Selection Committee accuracy per PPS system: 52/64 (81%)
Active forwards above standard: 19
Notes: PPS scores and standards are through the 2024-25 season and 2025 induction cycle. All player ages are as of opening night (October 7, 2025).
[ Check out the top 1,500 forwards in NHL history at Adjusted Hockey ]
⭕ Inner Circle
Sidney Crosby (+196 vs. standard): What more can be said about Crosby’s Mount Rushmore-worthy career? Somehow, he’s still a gamebreaker in his 21st season. Even as PPS has undergone minor revisions over the years, Crosby’s always been the #3 forward of all-time behind Wayne Gretzky and Mario Lemieux.
Alex Ovechkin (+161): Ovechkin is the greatest goal scorer ever. There’s no mental gymnastics or math or gotcha moment that can make this statement untrue. I’ve made the case that his career could be split in half and he’d have two Hall of Fame careers. He’ll retire as the #6 forward in PPS.
Connor McDavid (+134): Two years ago, McDavid became the 21st Inner Circle Hall of Fame forward in PPS. He was only 26 years old and had played just 645 games. Does McDavid have a sixth scoring title in him to join Lemieux and Gordie Howe? Will an elusive Stanley Cup arrive? McDavid exceeded Crosby’s first decade from a production perspective. But it’s the second decade that will determine whether McDavid catches him in PPS.
Evgeni Malkin (+106): Surprise. Yes, Malkin is the #16 forward in history in PPS. Playing 70 games only five times in his first 16 seasons and living in the formidable shadows of Crosby and Ovechkin have masked Geno’s dominance. In a neutral era, he’s a career 95-point forward — the fourth-best mark of the 410 members in the 1,000-game club.
✅ Qualified
Nikita Kucherov (+85): Three scoring titles. Three-time Hart finalist. Two Lindsay Awards. Two Stanley Cup rings as the playoff scoring leader. Kucherov has quietly become historically great. At 32, he has a realistic chance to become an Inner Circle Hall of Famer.
Patrick Kane (+81): Kane’s Hall of Fame legacy is long secured. He’s 26 points shy of becoming the all-time American-born scoring leader. What’s keeping ‘Showtime’ from the Inner Circle? His 2015-16 Hart Trophy year was his only iconic regular season or top-five MVP finish.
Nathan MacKinnon (+77): MacKinnon has scored at a 116-point pace spanning his last eight seasons. It’s extremely rare for a player to do that in one season, let alone this Earth-scorching run. At age 30 and in world-class condition, he’s off to another hot start. MacKinnon’s career ceiling is crazy high.
Leon Draisaitl (+69): In March 2024, I penned this celebratory piece on Draisaitl’s Hall case as he crossed the unofficial 700-game mark for induction. Since then, he added a Rocket Richard Trophy, an MVP runner-up finish, and a preposterous 64 points in 47 playoff games.
Steven Stamkos (+69): While Stammer has fallen on hard times in Nashville, let’s not forget his first 16 seasons in Tampa… a first-ballot Hall of Famer and one of the best snipers ever.
The #GoBolts handling of Stamkos is ruthless but shrewd given the cap & Father Time.
Lost in the Stammer convo is how historically great a scorer he's been — the #4 era-adjusted sniper of all-time (800+ GP).
Means little in 2024 & beyond but what a special career to date 👏 pic.twitter.com/IwH4NjmPlU
Brad Marchand (+61): Marchand is a lot of things. Some are best not said out loud with children or your grandmother around. But his legacy-defining 2024-25 season proved to many that he was a legitimate Hall of Famer — my public polling saw him rise from 41% to 63%. Ignore the antics, Marchand is a lock.
Auston Matthews (+60): Yes, his playoff legacy could keep Pennywise the Clown up at night. But Matthews has three Rockets and had 400 goals before his 28th birthday. He’s effectively had Hall of Famer Pavel Bure’s career already — only with an MVP and elite defensive skills. There are few limits on where Matthews goes from here.
David Pastrnak (+49): Pastrnak’s career has been Matthews Lite, which is quite the compliment. Boston Bruins‘ fans might be surprised that Pasta’s already bested his boss Cam Neely’s career in raw totals, per Hockey-Reference’s Stathead.
But given the absurd gap in NHL scoring rates when each played, we get this shocking neutral comparison:
- Pastrnak: 43 goals, 48 assists, 91 points per 82 games
- Neely: 39 goals, 28 assists, 67 points per 82 games
Jonathan Toews (+31): It’s been great to see Toews, 37, back on the ice this season. His 2017 inclusion in the nostalgia-heavy 100 Greatest Players centennial list in his late-20s spoke volumes about the level of reverence around his game. Toews was and is a legit first-ballot Hall of Famer — he’s overrated from intangibles yet underrated by his stat line.
John Tavares (+28): I covered everything about Tavares’ sneaky-great Hall of Fame credentials in January. He’s since completed last season’s 38-goal campaign, scored his 500th career goal, and secured a four-year extension that should bring his totals to levels even his biggest critics can’t ignore.
Anze Kopitar (+27): What a career for Kopitar, the first Slovenian to grace the NHL. He’s been a player every coach has drooled over for the last two decades. Kopitar has finished top 10 in Selke voting an unfathomable dozen times, paired nicely with nearly 1,300 career points. He’s not higher on this list from averaging ‘only’ 25 goals per 82 games and going 11 years without a playoff series win.
Artemi Panarin (+27): This is probably too high for Panarin for most people’s tastes — his reputation hasn’t caught up to his performance. But the numbers don’t lie. Through last season, Panarin was a neutral era 97-point player — ninth all-time among players with 750 games. He’s also a four-time year-end all-star at left wing. By debuting in the NHL in his age-24 season, Panarin arrived with 183 KHL points.
⚠️ Borderline/Above
Mikko Rantanen (+11): If all goes well, Rantanen should reach 800 points in his 20s. That’ll be more than Malkin, Kopitar, or Kucherov banked at the same age. Throw in a pair of 100-point seasons and a phenomenal postseason record (Cup ring, 123 points in 99 games) and Rantanen may be able to coast to the Hall of Fame with good health.
Corey Perry (+9): Despite the Hart/Rocket season, Perry did not have a Hall of Fame peak. He earned MVP votes just one other time — a 13th-place finish. He topped 76 points only twice. It’s very unlikely he reaches 500 goals or 1,000 points. He’s known for a career of dirty, dangerous plays. Yet, it felt like the tide turned last year on Perry’s case. Playing the most playoff games by a forward in NHL history and losing five Cup Finals in six years characterized ‘The Worm’ as a relentless hockey lifer. PPS says he’s slightly above the standard but appropriately a borderline case.
Aleksander Barkov (+5): Even if he doesn’t return to elite, Selke-level form after his devastating preseason ACL/MCL surgery, Barkov is going to the Hall of Fame. A repeat Cup-winning captain with three Selkes before his 30th birthday scoring near a point-per-game for 12 years? Smells like an induction speech.
⛔ Borderline/Below
Jamie Benn (-0.2): I had Benn at #3 for 2025-26 being most critical to his Hall future. He remains out after surgery for a collapsed lung, and the low-scoring era of his prime really suppresses his career numbers. PPS says the 2014-15 Art Ross winner is right at the Hall’s standard. Few agree, however. Barring a triumphant return and late-career signature moment or two, Benn’s path to immortality feels daunting.
Claude Giroux (-4): Over a full decade (2010-2020), Giroux led the NHL in assists — an incredible achievement in a league with Crosby and Kane. But public polling says only 10% of fans feels he’s a Hall of Famer. Like Benn’s, Giroux’s career stat line is greatly hurt by the low-scoring era of his peak years. Giroux will likely retire very close to (but just shy of) the PPS standard.
Matthew Tkachuk (-5): PPS loves Tkachuk. Through his age-27 season, it shows him on the cusp of the Hall’s statistical standard. Two Stanley Cups, two 40-goal/100-point seasons and 94 postseason caps will do that. Some fear exists that Tkachuk’s bat-out-of-hell playing style will limit his career totals, having missed significant chunks of the prior and current seasons.
Tyler Seguin (-5): Yet another overlooked star that peaked in the mid-2010s. Mid-career injury trouble has kept Seguin from a realistic Hall of Fame future. He’s reached 1,000 games but it’s come at a cost. He’s an old 34. Seguin’s place in the Borderline/Below tier may surprise, but it shouldn’t: over a six-season run, he scored at a neutral era 39-goal, 87-point pace. Seguin won a Cup at 19 and has played 151 playoff games.
Brayden Point (-6): Absent any notable hardware consideration, Point is going to have to play a long time to earn serious consideration. But PPS sees a player who just sniped 51, 46, and 42 goals in a three-year window — only Pastrnak, Draisaitl, and Matthews scored more. Someone who scored at a 38-goal pace for nine years. Someone who led the NHL in playoff goals in back-to-back Cup victories. A stunning statistical match at the same age? Mats Sundin, but with playoff success.
Mitch Marner (-8): Marner is well on his way to significant career point totals and a date with the Hall of Fame. He’s scored at no worse than a 93-point pace the last seven seasons and at least a 100-point pace each of the last five. That’s all-world production and consistency. Marner’s got playoff demons to slay but #1) the Hall is filled with underwhelming postseason résumés; and #2) he’s got plenty of time.
🏅 Hall of Very Good
Sebastian Aho (-16): 653 points and another 85 in the playoffs through his age-27 season. Averaging a pedestrian 56 points the next 10 seasons gets him to 1,213 — more than anyone outside the Hall.
Vladimir Tarasenko (-16): He’s on his last legs but will end up with a sneaky ‘Hall of Very Good’ career, featuring six 30-goal seasons and two Stanley Cups.
Jake Guentzel (-18): Debuting at 22 hurts Guentzel’s numbers for his age. If he can play at a high level for a long time, there’s an outside chance. Think Joe Pavelski’s unique career arc if you’re feeling hopeful.
Mark Scheifele (-19): Scheifele’s last nine seasons: an impressive 659 points in 652 games. Still thriving at 32, there’s a world where he tops 1,100 points, wins Olympic gold and a Stanley Cup. But it’s a long shot.
Mark Stone (-20): With just 712 games at 33, Stone is destined to fall short. But his placement here shows how underappreciated he’s been. A career 75-point pace player with a Cup and two Selke finalist nods.
Kirill Kaprizov (-21): Debuting at 23 crushes major career milestone dreams. But Kaprizov’s career pace to date: 47 goals, 52 assists, 99 points! Wow. Needs some individual honors and signature seasons ASAP.
Jack Eichel (-24): Eichel went four years between healthy, dominant seasons. Now 29 and off to a monster start, he’s going to have to stay on the ice and band together some big years into his 30s. He’s capable.
Defensemen
Defensemen have the most difficult time getting into the Hall of Fame, the position receiving an unfavorable share of the six-player distribution on the ice. Unlike forwards, potential defenseman candidates typically must both reach the top of their position and have long, exceptional careers to be elected.
Post-expansion defensemen elected: 27
Selection Committee accuracy per PPS system: 23/27 (85%)
Active defensemen above standard: 7
[ Check out the top 1,000 defensemen in NHL history at Adjusted Hockey ]
✅ Qualified
Victor Hedman (+38): A perennial Norris threat, four-time Cup finalist, and Conn Smythe winner, Hedman has emerged as his generation’s most Hall-worthy defenseman. He’s #21 all-time in PPS among blueliners and with a few more strong seasons, he’ll approach Chris Pronger and Scott Niedermayer territory. That’s high praise but he’s earned it with top-seven Norris finishes in nine of the last 10 seasons. What a player.
Cale Makar (+31): Makar is on an early trajectory to be an Inner Circle Hall of Famer. After only 395 career games, his PPS score was already 23rd-best among all defensemen in NHL history. His last five Norris finishes tell the story: 1st, 3rd, 3rd, 1st, 2nd. Even more impressive? Through his age-26 season, Makar’s era adjusted point pace (87 points) is second only to Bobby Orr. Decent.
Drew Doughty (+28): Now into his 18th season, Doughty is a Hall of Fame lock. Dependable, inexhaustible, outspoken, and a blueline savant, he owns a PPS (284) higher than first-ballot contemporaries Zdeno Chara (279), Duncan Keith (258), and Shea Weber (257).
Brent Burns (+17): While his game has always been polarizing, Burns is Hall-worthy. Norris Trophy? Check. 900 points? Check. Top-10 in goals by a defenseman? Check. Twenty-two seasons in the league? Check. Whether it’s high peak, big numbers, Norris love, or fun you seek, Burns is your guy. While the Stanley Cup remains elusive, Burns had 24 points in 24 games in the Sharks’ 2016 postseason run.
Kris Letang (+16): Letang’s Hall case isn’t easily summarized. Sure, the three Stanley Cup rings pop — even though he missed the entire 2017 postseason. But as an individual, many of his best years were cut short by injury. In his first 19 seasons, he played 75 games only four times. Yet, Letang still managed eight top-10 Norris finishes. Rate stats best capture his sustained dominance: over 12 seasons, Letang was second in the NHL in points-per-game (0.81) among defenders, narrowly trailing only teammate Erik Karlsson (0.84). That’s a full career for most spent as the #2 point-producer at his position. Despite multiple strokes, leaves of absences from heart ailments, concussions, and too many injuries to count, Letang will retire a warrior inside the top 20 in points by a defenseman.
Erik Karlsson (+16): Karlsson’s Hall qualifications are much simpler to encapsulate. Three Norris Trophies. Five-time year-end all-star. A 101-point season. A singular, brilliant talent. Karlsson and Orr are the only defensemen to lead the NHL in assists in the last century.
⚠️ Borderline/Above
Roman Josi (+12): PPS supports Josi’s candidacy — he scored at a 68-point pace over a decade spent as a perennial Norris candidate. He won the award in 2019-20 and finished runner-up twice more. Factor in individual seasons of 96 and 85 points and Josi has both an all-world peak and a long run of excellence. Passing 1,000 games, 200 goals, and 800 points will round out his résumé nicely. Beyond PPS, his pioneering role as the first Swiss superstar in the NHL deserves extra credit.
⛔ Borderline/Below
Alex Pietrangelo (-1): PPS says ‘Pietro’ is right on the borderline, which feels accurate. Traditionalists will see a #Winner: the #1 defender on two franchises’ first Cup titles (St. Louis, Vegas) and a fixture on two best-on-best international wins for Canada. His hockey card will show zero 55-point seasons or Norris finalist nods. An interesting case one day for the Committee.
John Carlson (-6): At 36, Carlson is still productive and should wind up with 800 points if he plays beyond this season. At the toughest position to get elected at, it’s difficult right now to envision Carlson emerging among this deep era of defenders featuring multiple Cup-winning horses (Hedman, Keith, Doughty, Letang, Pietrangelo) and Norris winners (Chara, Karlsson, Burns, Josi).
Goaltenders
An appropriate number of goaltenders have been elected to the Hall of Fame, the position receiving equitable representation of the six-player distribution on the ice. There is no clear career lean given most goalies have been straightforward choices and the handful of dicey inductees have little in common.
Post-expansion goaltenders elected: 16
Selection Committee accuracy per PPS system: 12/16 (75%)
Active goaltenders above standard: 3
[ Check out the top 400 goaltenders in NHL history at Adjusted Hockey ]
⚠️ Borderline/Above
Andrei Vasilevskiy (+10), Sergei Bobrovsky (+9), and Connor Hellebuyck (+4):
Make no mistake, Vasilevskiy (five-time Vezina finalist, four-time Cup finalist by age 30), Bobrovsky (two Vezinas, two Cups), and Hellebuyck (three Vezinas, Hart Trophy by age 31) will each be strong Hall of Fame additions. Vasilevskiy and Hellebuyck should move comfortably into the Qualified tier in the next season or two as their game counts rise. 37-year-old Bobrovsky should too if he plays beyond 2026.
But why is the trio only slightly above the standard in the Borderline/Above tier of PPS? Well, with only 16 post-expansion goalies inducted, the standard is very high. Consider the top 12 elected goalies via PPS:
- Patrick Roy, 409
- Dominik Hasek, 395
- Tony Esposito, 394
- Martin Brodeur, 371
- Roberto Luongo, 361
- Ken Dryden, 352
- Bernie Parent, 328
- Henrik Lundqvist, 327
- Ed Belfour, 310
- Billy Smith, 310
- Grant Fuhr, 304
- Vasilevskiy, 303
- Bobrovsky, 302
- Tom Barrasso, 301
- Hellebuyck, 296
- Hellebuyck, 296
That’s an exceptional group. Statistically, Curtis Joseph (PPS of 322), John Vanbiesbrouck (312), Carey Price (299), and Ryan Miller (293) ‘should’ be part of the current 16-goalie membership. That sets the goalie standard at 293 — a high bar to clear. Cap-era Vezina winners Tim Thomas (279), Pekka Rinne (274), and Tuukka Rask (274) remain well back in the Hall of Very Good tier. So, while the Selection Committee has inducted some arbitrary holdovers (Rogie Vachon, 280; Mike Vernon, 256!), the overwhelming majority of elected goalies had both long and elite careers.
🏆 Honorable Mention / Don’t Yell at Me
Jonathan Quick (-31): With 400-plus wins and his name on the Cup three times (once without getting into a playoff game), Quick will likely be elected one day. But PPS has no time for his case. Why? He’s been a mostly average goalie on mostly great defensive teams. Quick’s career adjusted save percentage — where .900 is league-average — is .899. He’s allowed six more goals than an average NHL goalie on the number of shots he’s faced. So, despite huge playoff bonuses, PPS views Quick as a steady netminder without an exceptional peak and not an elite, Hall-worthy puck stopper.
Data from Hockey-Reference, Quant Hockey
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