How well is the Toronto Maple Leafs’ Great Blueline Experiment working?

Matt Larkin
Matt Larkin(MLarkinHockey)
How well is the Toronto Maple Leafs’ Great Blueline Experiment working?
Credit: Morgan Rielly (Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports)

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There was Morgan Rielly, whizzing a shot past Colorado Avalanche goaltender Alexandar Georgiev, which clanged off the post in the first period of Wednesday’s game.

There was Morgan Rielly again in the first, capitalizing on a clean look, walking in from the top of the circle and beating Georgiev with a low glove-side wrist shot.

There was Morgan Rielly, chasing down Colorado’s Logan O’Connor, thwarting a would-be breakaway with a deftly timed stick check.

Goaltender Ilya Samsonov played one of his best games of the season and Mitch Marner was everywhere, but arguably no Leaf popped like Rielly during the Toronto Maple Leafs’ shootout loss. He looked like the difference-making, No. 1 puck mover that has seemingly been missing for much of the 2022-23 season, which included a one-month absence for a knee injury. He jumped into the play to create dangerous scoring chances at the right times. He used his skating to bail his team out in transition. He was himself.

“He came out, had some really good looks and he’s continuing to try to impose his game,” said Leafs captain John Tavares. “Maybe it hasn’t come as often on the scoresheet putting the puck in the net, but he’s still such an impactful player for us in so many areas. Obviously a leader. So he continues to work at it and stay with it and play solid hockey all around.”

And what was most interesting about Rielly’s performance? Judging it solely with our eyes, it suggested that less is more. Rielly logged 20:43 of ice time in a game that required a full five-minute overtime. During the days leading up to the 2023 Trade Deadline, Leafs GM Kyle Dubas fortified his defensive depth and then some, adding Jake McCabe, Erik Gustafsson and Luke Schenn in a matter of days. Even with Rasmus Sandin going the other way to Washington in the Gustafsson deal, the Leafs were nine strong on defense at the NHL level after the deadline – 10 if you count established NHLer Jordie Benn in the AHL. With Rielly, T.J. Brodie, Mark Giordano, Justin Holl, Timothy Liljegren, Conor Timmins, McCabe, Schenn and Gustafsson, the Leafs were guaranteed to be sitting three quality regulars every night. Or so we thought. Lately, coach Sheldon Keefe has been experimenting with a lineup of 11 forwards and seven defensemen.

Some forwards in the lineup are playing more – Marner logged an absurd 29:10 Wednesday – and they enjoy the extra feel for the game it gives them.

“We’ve been doing the 11 and seven for the last couple games now, and it’s honestly not bad,” said center Auston Matthews, who played 26:52. “You get in a rhythm, get out there a little bit more.”

The blueliners are obviously playing less – much less. Here’s a look at each current Toronto D-man’s average TOI this season before and after March 1:

PlayerTOI before March 1TOI after March 1Change
Erik Gustafsson20:2213:53-6:29
Luke Schenn17:1111:26-5:45
Timothy Liljegren18:4814:22-4:26
Mark Giordano19:3015:43-3:47
Justin Holl20:5717:11-3:46
Morgan Rielly22:3119:34-2:57
Jake McCabe19:2918:29-1:00
T.J. Brodie21:1020:59-0:11
Conor Timmins15:37Has not playedN/A

So every single Leaf blueliner has seen a reduction in his ice time and a drastic one in most cases. And in theory, it could help keep everyone’s legs livelier going into the postseason. One could point to Wednesday’s game as an example of a fresher Rielly being a more effective Rielly.

But is it actually true? Not according to the data at 5-on-5. The numbers tell us the exact opposite: that playing less has Rielly out of whack and he’s getting consistently caved in – along with most of his teammates.

Check out Rielly’s stats in a few key 5-on-5 on-ice metrics before and after the new-look roster began taking shape March 1:

StatisticBefore March 1After March 1Change
CF%52.2845.32-6.96
SF%52.7446.55-6.19
SCF%53.9041.18-12.72
XG%53.8038.37-15.43

Ugly. And Rielly’s ranks among the eight active Leaf defensemen in those four stats since March 1 are sixth, seventh, seventh and seventh. But he had so much jump on Wednesday, right? Perhaps our eyes are deceiving us, then. That said, the struggles can’t all be pinned on Rielly. If we look at the Leafs as a team since March 1, the chemistry appears to be wrong. They’re struggling to drive the play as they try to figure out their new lineup:

StatisticBefore March 1After March 1Change
CF%51.5147.13-4.38
SF%52.9250.78-2.14
SCF%54.3547.37-6.98
XG%54.4343.45-10.98

Rielly has struggled as much as anyone, yes, but his problems clearly mirror those of the entire team. The Leafs, who turned over a third of their starting skater lineup, clearly have not gelled yet. So perhaps Keefe shouldn’t commit too hard to regularly playing 11 forwards and seven defensemen.

What does Rielly think about it? I asked him after Wednesday’s game how the reduced minutes affected his rhythm. I won’t put words in his mouth – but that’s the thing: He didn’t provide many, which speaks volumes from a player who typically has a lot to say. His opinion on the reduced ice time:

“Different, for sure. That’s about it.”

End of discussion.

With its first-round playoff opponent already decided, now is as good a time as any for Keefe to try anything and everything… but so far, we should consider Toronto’s Great Blueline Experiment a work in progress at best.

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