Matt Larkin’s 2026-27 Fantasy Hockey ADPs to Avoid
Every fantasy hockey draft has players who become too expensive for their projected production. An ADP to avoid isn’t necessarily a player we expect to have a bad season — it’s a player whose draft-day cost leaves little room for upside. Whether they’re being drafted near their ceiling, coming off an unsustainable season, facing increased competition or simply going ahead of comparable options available rounds later, sometimes the best move is to let someone else pay the premium.
The DFO Fantasy team has identified the players they’re avoiding at their current ADPs for 2026-27. Each of our four analysts shares their picks and explains why they believe the cost outweighs the potential return.
More ADPs to Avoid:
Jack Hughes (NJD – C/LW) | ADP: 18.9
Nope. I’m not doing this anymore. It doesn’t matter how many more times Hughes laments to us media folk that his injuries have been freakish in nature. There are simply too many of them for it all to be coincidental at this point. He’s a superstar-grade talent, but he has missed 20 or more games in four of his past five seasons. Most frustratingly: the injury history isn’t dragging down his price. You have to spend a top-20 pick for 60 games of Hughes? In other words, even if gets through the season healthy, you aren’t profiting, as you’re already drafting him at full value. I’m out.
Cole Hutson (WSH – D) | ADP: 92.0
I’m trying to learn from the mistake I made gassing up Luke Hughes a year ago. Like Luke Hughes, Hutson is a hyped young blueliner with a superstar older brother defenseman. But like Luke Hughes a year ago, Hutson is not locked onto his team’s top power-play unit. That spot belongs to Jakob Chychrun, the second-best goal-scoring defenseman in the NHL over the past three seasons, while Alex Ovechkin occupies the other blueline spot for the entirety of every power play. That means Hutson, despite his prodigious ability, is staring down PP2 work. I still expect him to have an excellent rookie season, but his current ADP is asking him to be a 50-plus-point player right away. I don’t see how that’s possible if he’s playing on the third pair and PP2. He’s played 14 NHL games, yet he’s being drafted earlier than Mikhail Sergachev, who has at least 10 goals and 53 points in three of his past four seasons. That’s insanity to me.
Charlie McAvoy (BOS – D) | ADP: 99.6
Let’s get the obvious out of the way: picking McAvoy is burning a top-100 pick on someone already guaranteed to miss at least six games. McAvoy will begin the season serving a suspension for his slash on the Buffalo Sabres’ Zach Benson in the 2025-26 playoffs. On top of that: McAvoy plays the game with such intensity that, while it makes him an admirable real-life player, it guarantees missed time every season. McAvoy has hit the 70-game threshold just twice in his nine seasons and has never played 80 in a season. He did deliver the best offensive numbers of his career last season, but why take the risk on him replicating a probable outlier year when a durable player with major upside like Brandt Clarke is available later on average in drafts right now?
Cap Summary
Draft Picks
Anthony Mantha (NJD – LW/RW) | ADP: 142.2
The UFA market shortchanged Mantha, and we should follow suit by also not respecting the 33-goal season. Not only will he struggle to sustain a shooting percentage of 21.7, but it was an absolute miracle that he played 81 games. He averages 53 games per year over his past six seasons. His ADP suggests he’s expected to repeat his 2025-26, but it’s far more likely his game total drops to give or take 60 and his goal total to give or take 20. Hard pass.
Pavel Zacha (BOS – C/LW) | ADP: 144.4
Some bust cases are much clearer than others, and Zacha’s is easy. He’d never profiled as a goal scorer before last season, when he buried 30. He did so on just 131 shots, converting at 22.9 percent. His career average entering 2025-26 was 11.8 percent, and his previous career high in goals was 21. Last season was a glaring outlier. Don’t pay for a repeat.
