Nick Szeman’s 2026-27 Fantasy Hockey ADPs to Avoid
Every fantasy hockey draft has players who become too expensive for their projected production. An ADP to avoid isn’t necessarily a player we expect to have a bad season — it’s a player whose draft-day cost leaves little room for upside. Whether they’re being drafted near their ceiling, coming off an unsustainable season, facing increased competition or simply going ahead of comparable options available rounds later, sometimes the best move is to let someone else pay the premium.
The DFO Fantasy team has identified the players they’re avoiding at their current ADPs for 2026-27. Each of our four analysts shares their picks and explains why they believe the cost outweighs the potential return.
More ADPs to Avoid:
Nick Suzuki (MTL – C) | ADP: 12.8
Suzuki made history in the 2025-26 season, scoring 101 points (29G / 72A) to become just the fifth player in the history of the storied Montreal Canadiens franchise to reach the 100-point milestone. It was a massive breakout season for the talented 27-year-old forward, who the Canadiens will need to continue relying on if they intend to maintain their push toward becoming Stanley Cup contenders. His 101 points landed him sixth in NHL scoring, and his ADP reflects that, as he is being drafted in the latter half of the first round in most drafts.
While a lower ADP is warranted, Suzuki is being drafted ahead of proven players such as Kirill Kaprizov, Jack Eichel, Jason Robertson, and Auston Matthews. Suzuki should remain a point-per-game player, and it wouldn’t be shocking if he flirted with 100 points again, but there are far safer options to take that early in the draft. If Suzuki falls to the third round of your draft, don’t hesitate to take him, but at his current ADP, I’m staying clear of him.
Mark Scheifele (WPG – C) | ADP: 36.4
You’d be hard-pressed to find someone who hasn’t been impressed with Mark Scheifele in recent seasons. Scheifele is coming off back-to-back career-high seasons, scoring 87 points (39G / 48A) in 2024-25 and 103 points (36G / 67A) in 2025-26, good for fifth-most in the NHL. That said, it’s not often that a veteran with over 10 NHL seasons and just three 80-point seasons suddenly produces over 100 points at age 33. It’s an impressive achievement without a doubt, but there is equally cause for concern.
In the last 25 years, Jaromir Jagr, Joe Sakic, Nikita Kucherov, Steven Stamkos, and Artemi Panarin are the only players to record 100-point seasons after turning 30. Of those five players, the feat was no surprise for Jagr, Sakic, and Kucherov, who had reached the milestone regularly. Stamkos and Panarin, on the other hand, were first-timers, like Scheifele, setting massive career highs after the age of 30. That said, Stamkos and Panarin had flirted with the 100-point plateau regularly before reaching it, unlike Scheifele. And even so, both Stamkos and Panarin saw their point production decrease in subsequent seasons.
Don’t be surprised if Scheifele returns to his usual near-point-per-game production. He will continue to be a valuable asset for the Winnipeg Jets this season, but at his third-round ADP, he is a far less valuable commodity in fantasy drafts.
Brandon Hagel (TBL – LW/RW) | ADP: 37.8
Brandon Hagel has been a fantasy darling in recent seasons since being acquired in a trade by the Tampa Bay Lightning from the Chicago Blackhawks, transitioning from a bottom-six grinding forward to a top-six point-producing offensive threat. In recent years, his ADP hasn’t reflected his newfound offensive prowess, making him a desirable mid-round draft pick. But now, fantasy managers have caught on.
While Hagel has become a reliable point producer, likely a shoo-in for 30 goals and 80 points, it’s hard to justify his current ADP. The 28-year-old Hagel does most of his scoring at even strength, an impressive feat in itself, but it likely puts a cap on his offensive potential and limits his ceiling. Head Coach Jon Cooper has been hesitant to use Hagel on Tampa Bay’s top power-play unit, and even when he makes an appearance, he very rarely finds himself on the scoresheet.
As with the players mentioned above, this isn’t a knock on Hagel, who has become an excellent offensive player. But when players with higher upside like William Nylander and Mitch Marner are being drafted behind him, there’s little reason to reach for Hagel at his current ADP.
Scott Wedgewood (COL – G) | ADP: 54.6
After never starting more than 32 games in a season, Wedgewood earned himself a larger role at age 33 with the Colorado Avalanche, posting a stellar 2.02 GAA, .921 SV%, and four shutouts in 45 appearances (31-6-6). Now, after going undrafted in most fantasy leagues a year ago, the 34-year-old Wedgewood is the seventh goalie off the board. Wedgewood has the benefit of playing on an excellent Colorado team that should be a Stanley Cup contender again, giving him plenty of opportunities to rack up wins.
A goalie on a contending team is almost always a strong asset in fantasy hockey. That said, Wedgewood was originally intended to serve as a supporting option, or, in a best-case scenario, split time in Colorado’s crease with Mackenzie Blackwood. As such, the 2026-27 season for the Avalanche will likely wind up as a timeshare between Wedgewood and Blackwood. So, if there is an Avalanche goalie I’m targeting in fantasy drafts, it will be Blackwood, who is being drafted, on average, 35 slots behind Wedgewood. Both goalies should produce similar results, but frankly, Wedgewood’s incredible 2025-26 season may have been his ceiling, whereas Blackwood has far more upside and room to grow.
Pavel Dorofeyev (NYR – LW/RW) | ADP: 72.3
Dorofeyev proved doubters wrong last season, following up a 52-point (35G / 17A) 2024-25 campaign by surpassing it with 64 points (37G / 27A) in 2025-26. Now, with just two full NHL seasons under his belt, the 25-year-old joins a new team in the New York Rangers, becoming their highest-paid skater and one of the highest-paid forwards in the NHL at an $11.0 million AAV. He goes from a contending Vegas Golden Knights team that came up just short in the most recent Stanley Cup Finals to a Rangers team that finished last in the Eastern Conference.
The Rangers’ faithful will rely heavily on Dorofeyev to help them return to playoff contention. Yet, he has rarely been the type of player who can dictate play on his own, as evidenced by the disparity between his goal and assist production. Dorofeyev is a finisher with a wicked shot, but he needs teammates to get him the puck. He had the privilege of playing alongside Jack Eichel and Mitch Marner last season, two of the NHL’s premier puck distributors who assisted on 62% of his goals. Not to take away from some talented players on the Rangers’ roster, but they do not have the playmaking talents of his former teammates. Look for safer, more proven options instead of Dorofeyev at his ADP.