Beebs Bondy’s 2026-27 Fantasy Hockey ADPs to Avoid
Every fantasy hockey draft has players who become too expensive for their projected production. An ADP to avoid isn’t necessarily a player we expect to have a bad season — it’s a player whose draft-day cost leaves little room for upside. Whether they’re being drafted near their ceiling, coming off an unsustainable season, facing increased competition or simply going ahead of comparable options available rounds later, sometimes the best move is to let someone else pay the premium.
The DFO Fantasy team has identified the players they’re avoiding at their current ADPs for 2026-27. Each of our four analysts shares their picks and explains why they believe the cost outweighs the potential return.
More ADPs to Avoid:
Jake Oettinger (DAL – G) | ADP: 25.9
While there is certainly a case for Oettinger to go as the fourth or fifth goaltender off the board in drafts, I am struggling to even consider looking in his direction at the incredibly sweet ADP of 24.6. Surrounded by legitimate offensive superstars and category stuffers, I find it hard to commit a draft position this sweet to a goalie who hasn’t posted a save percentage above .909 in the last three seasons and is coming off a rough .899 SV% last year. Oettinger is a sure bet to pick up wins, proven by him scooping up 35+ victories in each of the last four seasons, but with Casey DeSmith proving to be a serviceable backup, his volume and lack of other category coverage make it even harder to consider him in the 2nd and 3rd rounds. Oettinger finished 2025-26 3rd in the NHL in Wins (39) but 27th in SV% (.899), and 14th in GAA (2.59). Production anywhere close to this in 2026-27 could lead to a massive anchor in your lineup in a position that you really cannot afford to miss on draft night.
Leo Carlsson (ANA – C) | ADP: 45.7
Carlsson may break out in 2026-27, and I would still feel the 45.7 ADP would be far too rich for Anaheim’s new highly paid centre. The 21-year-old is entering his fourth NHL season, and we still have yet to see him finish above 30 goals, 200+ SOG or a point-per-game in any of his three campaigns. At the high price tag of 44.4 ADP, there are still elite, safe options surrounding the young forward who fill more categories and have already proven they have what it takes to warrant their top-50 ADP. Carlsson’s fantasy value takes an extra hit in banger leagues, as he has never shown an inclination to hit, with a career high of 28 hits in his rookie season in 2023-24. With the young star already seeing high-end TOI minutes (19:09 TOI/GP in 2025-26), the room for growth is even more limited than other possible breakout options. He is a fantastic two-way player, but with him going in drafts around names like Sam Reinhart, William Nylander, Clayton Keller, Tim Stutzle and Artemi Panarin, I am more than certain I will have no fantasy stock in him this season.
Cole Hutson (WSH – D) | ADP: 92.0
Despite having just 14 career games to his name, Cole Hutson is being taken as the 20th defenseman off the board at a ADP of 92.0. With defence carrying different levels of value depending on your league categories, a top-90 pick for a defenseman likely to average close to or less than 20 TOI is a tough sell regardless of his offensive ceiling. At this point in drafts, there are much safer options that should provide much safer floors, being taken rounds later than the rookie. Hutson undeniably makes a fantastic keeper league option, but with his minutes expected to be sheltered in his first full season and a tough path to Washington’s top power-play unit with defenseman goal-leader Jakob Chychrun planted comfortably in that slot, there are much better options at this point in your draft in redraft leagues. Hutson’s hot start last season was exciting, but with this hefty of a price tag, if he falters for even a small portion of the season, your team will feel that fantasy impact throughout the season. Smart picks in the middle of drafts win leagues, and although this one has the potential for high offensive success, the risk far outweighs the reward in my books, likely leaving him off most of my fantasy teams this year.
Roope Hintz (DAL – C) | ADP: 118.5
Hintz is a fantastic two-way player, finishing top-30 in Selke rankings in 5 of the last 6 seasons; unfortunately, defensive play (without hits) does not really translate well to fantasy success. Hintz is being taken at a very fruitful spot in the middle of the draft, surrounded by category stuffers who offer much safer floors, higher ceilings and likely play on their teams’ top power-play units. Despite Hintz’s injury-filled past, when producing and in the lineup, his game usually consists of assist-heavy production, proven by the centre failing to reach 185 SOG in his last four seasons. With Wyatt Johnston leapfrogging him up the middle of Dallas’ depth chart and not looking back, he finds himself likely on the outside looking in from both Dallas’ top power-play and 5v5 line. The 29-year-old has failed to average more than 17:33 TOI each in the last four years, furthering his case for staying away from the Stars’ forward at this point in your drafts.