Brock Seguin’s 2026-27 Fantasy Hockey ADPs to Avoid

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[other adps to avoid]

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Nick Suzuki (MTL – C) | ADP: 12.9

Last season, Suzuki set career highs in assists (72), points (101) and power-play points (43), but a lot had to go right for him to reach those heights.

Suzuki benefited from a 15.9% on-ice shooting percentage, and the Canadiens scored 14.3 goals above expected with him on the ice — the fourth-highest mark in the NHL, according to Sportlogiq. That makes the spike to 40-plus power-play points and 100-plus points difficult to project again, and at this draft cost, you’re essentially paying for a repeat.

Suzuki isn’t entirely one-dimensional, but his modest shot volume limits his goal-scoring upside. He’s more likely to live around 30 goals than suddenly become a 40-goal scorer, which puts even more pressure on his assists and power-play production to justify a pick at the 1/2 turn.

The biggest problem is that this fantasy profile isn’t particularly difficult to find later in the draft. You can take Kyle Connor (ADP: 30.1) roughly a round and a half later and get better goal-scoring, similar point production and significantly more shot volume. Even later, Jesper Bratt (ADP: 77.3) projects eerily similar to Suzuki and is being drafted more than five rounds later.

	Nick Suzuki	Kyle Connor	Jesper Bratt
Team	MTL	WPG	NJD
Pos	C	LW	LW,RW
ADP	12.9	30.1	77.3
GP	84	81	84
G	28.9	37.0	25.1
A	58.5	50.3	61.9
Pts	87	87	87
(+/-)	3.6	-6.3	1.2
PPP	32.5	24.0	28.2
SOG	177.7	244.1	177.3
ATOI	21.7	21.5	18.7
BLK	66.8	32.2	33.8
HIT	75.4	38.9	85.2

Suzuki is obviously a great player, but that’s not really the question. At this price, you’re drafting him at his ceiling. Unless everything lines up perfectly again, I don’t see enough separation between Suzuki and the players available several rounds later to justify taking him at the 1/2 turn.

Will Smith (SJS – LW/RW) | ADP: 64.6

I think Smith is a high-end talent with plenty of room to improve at just 21 years old. The problem isn’t whether he can break out; it’s that his sixth-round draft cost already assumes that a breakout is coming.

Smith squeezed a lot out of an excellent situation last season. He averaged north of 18 minutes per game and was essentially attached to Macklin Celebrini’s hip, playing 87.9% of his 5v5 minutes alongside him. Celebrini already exploded for 45 goals and 115 points, so there isn’t an obvious deployment upgrade coming for Smith.

That means any significant jump in production will have to come from Smith improving his individual process.

His shot volume remains modest, which limits his goal-scoring ceiling unless that changes. He also benefited from a 12.8% on-ice shooting percentage despite fairly pedestrian underlying results. Smith ranked 46th in individual expected goals, 84th in Offence Driving Plays and 92nd in on-ice expected goals per game.

None of that means Smith can’t take another step. He’s 21 — improvement should be expected. But when you’re drafting him in the sixth round, you’re paying for that next step before it happens.

That’s especially difficult to justify when you look at the alternatives. Connor Bedard (ADP: 66.1) posted elite underlying metrics last season while outscoring Smith by six goals and 16 points. He’s hurt to start the year, but his underlying profile already screams breakout, while Smith’s still needs to improve. Pavel Dorofeyev (ADP: 72.3) is a back-to-back 35-plus-goal scorer with excellent shot volume. And Lucas Raymond (ADP: 74.3) offers probably the closest comparison to Smith: he had 76 points (25G / 51A) with similarly modest shot volume and comparable underlying metrics, yet he’s available nearly a full round later.

This isn’t about doubting Smith’s breakout potential. It’s about how much you’re being asked to pay to find out if it happens. At this ADP, much of the breakout is already priced in, leaving little room for him to outperform his draft cost.

Alex Tuch (WSH – LW/RW) | ADP: 91.4

Tuch has posted back-to-back 30-goal, 30-assist seasons, and honestly, being drafted as the No. 22 RW is pretty consistent with his fantasy points-per-game finishes over the last two years.

But that’s also the problem.

Tuch has had two excellent seasons in which his shooting percentage spiked, and even then, he’s only produced like the No. 22 RW. His fantasy profile is a little bland. He doesn’t provide elite shot or hit volume, his power-play production is modest, and now he’s moving to a deep Capitals team where he may not see the same usage he had in Buffalo.

For me, it’s more about the lack of upside at a point in the draft where there’s still plenty of it available.

Gavin McKenna (ADP: 93.8) is going just two picks later. Adam Fantilli (ADP: 99.8) is one of my favourite breakout candidates this season and is available eight picks later. Beckett Sennecke (ADP: 105.1) and Brandt Clarke (ADP: 105.2) are roughly a round later and both offer significant breakout upside. Even Dylan Holloway (ADP: 107.7) offers similar offensive production to Tuch, with more shot volume and significantly more hits, more than a full round later.

Tuch just feels like a vanilla pick being drafted close to his ceiling. And you can essentially replicate Tuch’s profile with Rickard Rakell (ADP: 133.4), who also carries triple-position eligibility, 42 picks later.

Rakell isn’t necessarily a pick you’re going to be excited about either, but I’d much rather buy that profile in the 12th round than pay for it in the eighth.

Sergei Bobrovsky (TOR – G) | ADP: 93.4

Bobrovsky was downright awful last season, posting an .877 SV% with a 52.9% Quality Start%. More concerning is that this wasn’t just one bad year. He’s now posted a Quality Start% below 60% in each of the last two seasons — a sample of more than 100 games.

Now he lands in Toronto, on a team that gave up the most expected goals against in the NHL last season. Sure, the Maple Leafs improved their roster this summer, but even if they improve to league average defensively, I don’t love Bobrovsky’s chances of returning value at this ADP.

There’s also legitimate competition for starts. Anthony Stolarz remains in the crease, and we’ve already seen how good he can be when healthy. That makes it difficult to project Bobrovsky for enough quality and volume to justify taking him inside the top 100.

Especially when I much prefer several goalies available multiple rounds later. Jet Greaves (ADP: 119.0), Joel Hofer (ADP: 127.4) and Carter Hart (ADP: 129.3) are all netminders I have ranked several rounds ahead of Bobrovsky, yet they’re being drafted 26-to-36 picks later.

Between the recent performance, Toronto’s defensive environment and the competition for starts, there’s simply too much working against Bobrovsky at this price. He’ll be on zero of my fantasy teams at this ADP.

Dougie Hamilton (NJD – D) | ADP: 110.9

For the last month, I’ve been telling anyone who will listen that Luke Hughes (ADP: 134.4 | 64% Drafted) is one of my favourite targets this season. I think Hughes has a ton of breakout upside that went unrealized in 2025-26, and a big part of that is my expectation that he takes over full-time for Hamilton on PP1.

So naturally, I’m not interested in drafting Hamilton two rounds ahead of him.

When you look at the numbers, a changing of the guard on New Jersey’s top power play feels inevitable. Hughes has already outperformed Hamilton in nearly every individual power-play metric.

	Luke Hughes	Dougie Hamilton
Offence Generating Plays/60	→ 46.7	31.5
Possession Driving/60	→ 116.4	50.3
Slot Driving Plays/60	→ 26.2	15.4
ixG/60	1.31	→ 1.52

That’s a major concern because Hamilton’s fantasy ceiling is heavily tied to that PP1 role. If Hughes takes over, you’re suddenly paying a top-110 pick for a defenseman whose path to returning value becomes significantly more difficult.

But it’s not just the threat Hughes poses to Hamilton’s power-play time. It’s also the opportunity cost of taking Hamilton this early.

To draft Hamilton, who I have ranked No. 149, you’re passing on players like Nico Hischier (71st), Andrei Svechnikov (78th), Nikolaj Ehlers (91st), Logan Cooley (92nd), Seth Jarvis (104th), and Jet Greaves (109th), just to name a few.

And then, roughly two rounds later, Hughes is still sitting there.

I’d much rather use the earlier pick on one of those forwards or goalies and target Hughes later. Not only do I think Hughes has the higher ceiling this season, but there’s a very real chance you’re drafting the Devils’ PP1 defenseman after Hamilton is already off the board.