NHL power rankings: How concerning is the Canadiens’ recent slump?

We’re starting to approach the dog days of the NHL season. Not so much because it feels like the days are dragging on longer and longer (after daylight savings, they aren’t long enough!), but instead it’s the dog days for teams’ rosters. It’s an absolute bloodbath on the injury front, with the likes of Auston Matthews, Quinn Hughes, Jack Hughes, Victor Hedman, Thatcher Demko, Anthony Cirelli and Seth Jarvis missing time recently, and some teams are already resorting to half their AHL rosters. It’s tough sledding out there these days!

Hunter Crowther and I navigate through the season with another year of our co-op power rankings. I have my same old system in which I aggregate six stats (points %, 5-on-5 goal differential, 5-on-5 xGF/60, 5-on-5 xGA/60, power play xGF/60, and shorthanded xGA/60, all coming courtesy of Natural Stat Trick) to come up with a list that eliminates my own biases, along with a rule that no team can be above a team that’s more than five points ahead of them in the standings, regardless of where the aggregate places them. On the other hand, Hunter goes off his own intellect and pure vibes, and together we find a way to combine it and meet in the middle.

1. Colorado Avalanche

Record: 13-1-5, +31
Last Week: 1st (0)
Hunter’s Rank: 1st 
Scott’s Rank: 1st 

Hunter: We know, we know, the Avalanche are the league’s best team, Nathan MacKinnon and Cale Makar are playing hockey better than anyone in the world, and they dominated in terms of possession in all three of their wins last week. We know they’re the Stanley Cup contender in the NHL. Here’s a thought experiment to chew on: With just one regulation loss through the first 19 games of the season, is Colorado’s lineup truly elite, or are they benefiting from a watered-down league? 

There’s been hundreds of games played through the first few weeks of the season, and it feels like nearly every night, teams are making out-of-character mistakes. Bad passes, lazy turnovers, stick infractions committed by players caught out of position. Colorado has been relatively error-free, but is that more just them being in midseason form, or is nearly every other team in the league just out of sorts? 

Scott: I certainly don’t disagree with this premise. The Avalanche have been in a league of their own this season, but it’s less that they’ve been playing well above their normal levels, and more that the rest of the league is still figuring things out. But as long as Colorado doesn’t burn themselves out before the playoffs, there’s nothing wrong with playing to your best ability and getting into the groove of things, especially after how the last few seasons have gone for them.

2. Carolina Hurricanes

Record: 12-5-1, +14
Last Week: 2nd (0)
Hunter’s Rank: 2nd
Scott’s Rank: 2nd

Scott: The Hurricanes saw their hot streak come to an end, dropping their first game of last week against the Capitals and their last game against the Oilers, while they managed to best the Canucks in between those games. They also dealt with a couple of injuries over the week, most notably to Seth Jarvis and Jesperi Kotkaniemi in the win over Vancouver. Thankfully, Jarvis was fine and returned the following day, but Kotkaniemi is still out for now. That said, if Carolina had to choose between the two of them, they’d easily take Jarvis.

3. Dallas Stars

Record: 12-4-3, +10
Last Week: 10th (+7) 
Hunter’s Rank: 3rd
Scott’s Rank: 5th

Hunter: I pointed out last week that, despite only scoring three goals through 16 games, Jason Robertson had the fifth-highest expected goals percentage in the league and the dam would eventually break. Well … it broke. Robertson scored six times and recorded three straight three-point games for the Stars last week, including a natural hat trick in a 5-1 win over the Flyers on Saturday. Robertson is now tied with Mikko Rantanen for second on the club in goals, and the Stars have now won five straight. 

Scott: Robertson has quietly been very good this season, so I’m glad that he’s finally getting the bounces (and not just for the sake of my fantasy teams). Heck, it’s been a good month for both of the Robertson brothers.

4. Vegas Golden Knights

Record: 8-4-6, +4
Last Week: 3rd (-1)
Hunter’s Rank: 4th
Scott’s Rank: 4th

Scott: The Golden Knights started the season 5-0-2 before sustaining their first regulation loss on Oct. 25. Since then, they’ve gone 3-4-4. Do you want to guess what happened in between those two stretches? If you guessed that’s when they officially signed Carter Hart to a two-year contract, you’d be correct. They haven’t even been playing badly in this recent stretch, they’ve just been unlucky, or in this case, I’d like to call it karma. And while he got the win, Hart allowed two goals on just 14 shots, so it’s not the best start to his return either. Come on Vegas. Even the 2022-23 Bruins knew not to mess with happy with the Mitchell Miller signing.

5. Pittsburgh Penguins

Record: 10-5-4, +12
Last Week: 5th (0)
Hunter’s Rank: 8th 
Scott’s Rank: 3rd

Scott: The Penguins had a quiet week as they were travelling to Sweden for the Global Series, but it proved to be a solid bounce back for a team that had lost four of their last five games and five of their last seven. While they did allow Nashville to score late and tie the game before losing in overtime on Friday, Pittsburgh bounced back with a big 4-0 win in the second leg of the series. Sergei Murashov may already be turning heads at the NHL level with the 21-save shutout in just his second start as well. Arturs Silovs and Tristan Jarry have also been great to start the season, but Murashov is showcasing the Pens what they have in net down the road.

Hunter: Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin both scored on Sunday, and they now have 21 and 23 points, respectively, through 19 games. Let’s say the team remains in the playoff hunt after the new year and as we get closer to the Olympic break: Does Kyle Dubas trade away his best players for assets? Or does he and the organization feel like they owe it to their future Hall-of-Famers to at least try to go for it? 

6. New York Rangers

Record: 10-8-2, +2
Last Week: 13th (+7)
Hunter’s Rank: 6th 
Scott’s Rank: 6th

Hunter: Hockey is such a weird sport. In last week’s power rankings, Scott was begging the Rangers to score at home, as they were shut out in five of their last seven games at Madison Square Garden — despite outplaying their opponents in most games. But last week? They were badly outshot and outchanced in three of their four games — and still won three times. 

Side note: The Rangers’ centennial jerseys are phenomenal. I don’t even root for the team and I want to buy a sweater. They wore them Sunday against the Red Wings, and the blue vs. red jersey choice was the best thing the NHL has done since the first season of HBO 24/7: Road to the Winter Classic. 

Scott:

7. New Jersey Devils

Record: 13-4-1, +9
Last Week: 8th (+1)
Hunter’s Rank: 5th
Scott’s Rank: 10th

Scott: Is there a player in the NHL with worse luck than Jack Hughes? He has had his season ended prematurely in three of the past four seasons, has only once played more than 62 games in a season in his career, and now amidst another great start from him, he somehow manages to cut his hand at a team dinner. The man is cursed! The Devils’ injury luck has been brutal this season regardless, even by their recent standards, but they’ve managed to persevere with points in five straight games (4-0-1).

8. Anaheim Ducks

Record: 11-6-1, +9
Last Week: 6th (-2)
Hunter’s Rank: 7th
Scott’s Rank: 8th

Hunter: You guys know about the Madden curse? It’s the theory that the football player who appears on the cover of the Madden video game has a terrible season. Maybe the Daily Faceoff power rankings have reached that point, with the Ducks losing all three games last week by a combined score of 12-4. I mean, it didn’t apply to the Lightning when we chose them for the cover Nov. 3, and the Leafs were already bad the week prior. Maybe I’m giving us far too much credit. 

Scott: I think you’re reading too much into something that is just simply statistical regression.

Hunter: Scott, don’t you want DFO to have the mystique Sports Illustrated had? We could produce the next Tony Mandarich! 

9. Los Angeles Kings

Record: 10-5-4, 0
Last Week: 17th (+8)
Hunter’s Rank: 10th 
Scott’s Rank: 7th

Scott: The Kings have been on a good run of late, starting off their six-game road trip with four straight wins. But they made even bigger headlines on Sunday when they signed Adrian Kempe to an eight-year contract extension with a $10.625 million cap hit. Here’s the thing: the contract is a good one by the standards of the current scope of the salary cap, and would be fine on most teams, but it might not be a great one for the Kings specifically. As our colleague Mike Gould eloquently put it shortly after the signing was announced, the timing isn’t great for L.A. With Anze Kopitar in his final season, the future of L.A. may just be a rebuild, and Kempe could have been a great asset to flip at the deadline to start that. The Kings have looked good recently, but the long-term makeup of the team doesn’t look great right now.

Hunter: Couldn’t agree more when it comes to how they want to proceed after Kopitar’s retirement. Don’t forget Drew Doughty, who left the Canadian Tire Centre in a walking boot following the Kings’ 1-0 win over the Senators on Saturday, has just one year remaining on his contract after this season. The player I would prioritize over Kempe in terms of locking up a new deal is Brandt Clarke, who will be a restricted free agent after this season. I’d rather sign a 22-year-old defender to an eight-year deal instead of a winger who turns 30 when his new deal kicks in. 

10. Florida Panthers

Record: 9-8-1, -4
Last Week: 11th (+1)
Hunter’s Rank: 9th
Scott’s Rank: 12th

Hunter: I think the Panthers have broken my brain when it comes to the regular season. There’s entire periods or first halves of games where they look about as average as you can be, unable to generate anything from their forecheck on a dump-and-chase and letting the other team skate through the neutral zone with ease. Then there’s moments they lull you into a false sense of security, grab you by the throat and watch life leave your eyes as they pile up the goals. Everything about them screams, “We’ll squeak in with a Wildcard spot and still make it to at least the Eastern Conference Finals.” They are inevitable.

Scott: They did have those stretches of weakness last season as well…

Hunter: And the year before that! I told ya, the brain is broken!  

11. Utah Mammoth

Record: 10-7-1, +3
Last Week: 9th (-2) 
Hunter’s Rank: 13th
Scott’s Rank: 11th

Scott: The Mammoth have lost six of their last eight games, a run that has seen them fall from one of the top teams in the league to one currently not in a playoff spot. The worst part: the only two wins they do have are against the Sabres. Nick Schmaltz has predictably cooled off with just three goals and five points in this eight-game stretch compared to 16 points in his first 10, while Dylan Guenther and Logan Cooley have just three. This was a predictable regression from a red-hot start, but this is still a good team that will normalize soon.

12. Tampa Bay Lightning

Record: 9-7-2, -1
Last Week: 4th (-8)
Hunter’s Rank: 11th
Scott’s Rank: 13th 

Scott: You know how I’ve been talking non-stop about the Lightning’s need for a puck-moving defenseman? Well, their only one in Victor Hedman has missed the last three games, and Tampa Bay saw their stretch of seven wins in eight games come to an end. Sure, they looked good against a Panthers team that has struggled a little bit, but they looked messier allowing seven goals to the Rangers and six-straight goals to the Canucks after taking a 2-0 lead. Both losses can also be chalked up to bad performances from Andrei Vasilevskiy and Jonas Johansson, but the Bolts need a bit more help on the back end.

13. Seattle Kraken

Record: 9-4-5, -1
Last Week: 19th (+6) 
Hunter’s Rank: 16th
Scott’s Rank: 9th

Hunter: The Kraken grabbed two wins last week off of subpar goaltending performances from Connor Hellebuyck and Alex Nedeljkovic, who allowed four goals on 17 shots and three goals on 22 shots, respectively. Seriously, I watched the full replay of the Kraken-Sharks game Sunday morning, and couldn’t believe A) How many high-quality chances each team gave up, and B) How lucky Seattle was with the failed opportunities on San Jose’s behalf. I think we’re seeing the Kraken regress, I just don’t know if they’re going to fall further, or if this is where they belong. 

14. Winnipeg Jets

Record: 11-7-0, +9
Last Week: 15th (+1) 
Hunter’s Rank: 12th
Scott’s Rank: 18th

Hunter: Well, at least you can’t say it was a boring week for a Jets team that capped off a six-game road trip with a 4-3 shootout win on Saturday against the Flames. They may have earned four out of six points last week, but they’re still getting dominated at 5-on-5, and as mentioned in the Kraken blurb, Hellebuyck hasn’t been himself. Next Friday against the Hurricanes will be a good test for a Winnipeg group that needs to sort itself out. 

15. Montreal Canadiens

Record: 10-6-2, -2
Last Week: 7th (-8) 
Hunter’s Rank: 14th
Scott’s Rank: 17th

Hunter: No, we don’t need to panic in Montreal, but losing three games by a combined score of 15-3 ain’t good. As mentioned last week, there are no moral victories in the NHL, but I really like how they responded Saturday against the Bruins after getting steamrolled by the Kings and Stars. Jayden Struble dropped the gloves off the opening draw against Nikita Zadorov, and Arber Xhekaj went up against Tanner Jeannot. Even if they didn’t get a point, the Canadiens continue to show they’re not afraid of the moment.

Scott: It’s a good thing that the city of Montreal was distracted by the Grey Cup Final run of the Alouettes, because they’re going to be really mad when they follow the Habs agai… ah I’m just kidding, no one cares about the CFL except Saskatchewan and Hamilton, so at least the Grey Cup went to a loving home.

Hunter: The Winnipeg Blue Bombers are the gold standard of the league!

Scott: And yet even I’ve partied with the Grey Cup more recently than they have! 

16. Detroit Red Wings

Record: 11-7-1, -2
Last Week: 16th (0) 
Hunter’s Rank: 15th 
Scott’s Rank: 16th

Scott: The Red Wings got five of a possible six points last week, and the good news is that it wasn’t on the back of Dylan Larkin this time around. While the captain has slowed down of late compared to his nuclear start (five points in his last six games), it was Alex DeBrincat that stepped up with five goals during this three-game stretch. Lucas Raymond (one goal, seven points) and Moritz Seider (one goal, five points) were also helpful last week, but DeBrincat is on another one of his super-hot runs right now.

17. Ottawa Senators

Record: 9-6-4, -1
Last Week: 12th (-5) 
Hunter’s Rank: 17th
Scott’s Rank: 14th

Hunter: The Sens put up valiant efforts against a Stars group that’s getting hot and a barnburner against the divisional rival Bruins. Ottawa fans hope Dylan Cozens can continue to find the scoresheet after scoring against Boston, his first goal in nine games. The team kicks off a seven-game road trip this week, and Brady Tkachuk is expected to join the group, meaning there’s potential he could return before the end of the month. 

18. Philadelphia Flyers

Record: 9-6-3, 0
Last Week: 14th (-4) 
Hunter’s Rank: 18th
Scott’s Rank: 19th

Hunter: I just want to say that the Flyers’ 6-5 shootout win against the Blues was one of the more exciting games of the year, with both teams firing everything they could on net and both goalies doing everything they could to let them in. Samuel Ersson giving up five goals on 12 shots and still getting the win has to be some sort of record. It was also good to see Owen Tippett get four points against St. Louis, as the 26-year-old recorded just one assist in the previous 10 games. 

19. Columbus Blue Jackets

Record: 9-7-2, -1
Last Week: 27th (+8) 
Hunter’s Rank: 23rd
Scott’s Rank: 15th

Scott: I’m still not sure what to make of the Blue Jackets this season. At some points, they look like a team building off their surprise run last season and gunning for a playoff spot. Other times, they look more like the team everyone expected from them going into last season. But, they’ve got points in four straight games (albeit with a 2-0-2 record), and Kirill Marchenko has shown no signs of slowing down after his breakout campaign last year.

20. New York Islanders

Record: 10-7-2, -1
Last Week: 21st (+1)
Hunter’s Rank: 19th
Scott’s Rank: 20th

Scott: Do we talk about Matthew Schaefer again? I think we need to talk about Matthew Schaefer again. He set another interesting record last night, becoming the youngest defenseman in NHL history to score an overtime winner. That was his seventh goal of the season, which also leads all defensemen, while he’s tied for seventh in points with Morgan Rielly (which is a bit of a surprise considering the conversation surrounding the Leafs, but more on them later) and leading all rookies. The kid is still sick.

21. Chicago Blackhawks

Record: 9-5-4, +12
Last Week: 23rd (+2)
Hunter’s Rank: 21st
Scott’s Rank: 21st

Scott: Macklin Celebrini has dominated the conversation regarding “should this young lad make Team Canada?” but Connor Bedard should also be in the conversation. He’s been one of the best players this season and has clearly taken steps in his game. I think it’s important to remind Team Canada about what happened the last time they lost in a best-on-best tournament: they slept on an up-and-coming young gun named Crosby, and he went and proved to be the face of Canadian hockey after that. Even if you don’t want to use Bedard and Celebrini all the time, at least bring them to get them acclimated to the process to build the blocks for the future of this team.

Hunter: Sam Bennett and Travis Konecny and Anthony Cirelli are fantastic players and I’ll be forever grateful for what they did for the country during the 4 Nations Face-Off. They should also be nowhere near the Canadian Olympic roster. I would rather have one of Bedard and Celebrini to try and break a 1-1 deadlock against Czechia than a lunchbox depth piece. 

22. Edmonton Oilers

Record:  9-7-4, -8
Last Week: 20th (-2) 
Hunter’s Rank: 20th
Scott’s Rank: 22nd

Scott: Well, the Oilers have woken up to some extent after that 9-1 smackdown at the hands of the Avalanche. They won three of four games over the weekend, and while two of the wins were against lighter opponents in the Blue Jackets and Flyers, the win over the Hurricanes on Saturday was the most impressive one. It’s not like they snuck away with the victory, as they actually kept up with Carolina and even outplayed them ever so slightly. Hopefully that’s a sign that the Oilers are returning to normal. Zach Hyman rejoining the lineup will certainly help in that regard as well.

23. Boston Bruins

Record: 12-8-0, +2
Last Week: 25th (+2) 
Hunter’s Rank: 22nd
Scott’s Rank: 23rd

Hunter: The Bruins have won nine of their last 11 games, and as of Monday morning, they are first in the Atlantic Division. What is going on? What is happening? The combination of this and the NFL’s New England Patriots winning eight straight is debilitating to the psyches of sports fans who live outside of the northeastern U.S. I’m trying, Ringo. I’m trying real hard to be the shepherd. 

Seriously, if the Bruins continue this run into the new year, David Pastrnak will be the leading candidate for the Hart Trophy. 

24. Toronto Maple Leafs

Record: 8-9-2, -5
Last Week: 24th (0)
Hunter’s Rank: 24th
Scott’s Rank: 26th

Scott: If only someone had prepared everyone for the current state of this Leafs team, warning that they were actually a mediocre team last year getting good goaltending and that they’ll eventually regress. This is what this looks like, everyone. The five-game losing streak feels like an overcorrection, but this is a team that is playing even worse than last season as they struggle without Mitch Marner – and experiencing regression on top of it. And yet, with no assets to trade, their path to improving is foggy. I do like the Troy Stecher waiver claim, especially once the blueline gets healthy and he even pushes Simon Benoit out of the lineup (hopefully). But if they want to make significant strides to return to Cup contention, what else can they do? Pete DeBoer is screaming to them like the Green Goblin mask, but even I think firing Berube barely 100 games into his tenure is a bit premature.

Also, I’d like to take this time to call out Leafs fans: get out of here with your revisionist history. There are far too many suddenly saying “this team actually wasn’t that good last season” or “Berube/Brad Treliving have been hurting this team” after singing this team’s praises last year and saying it was the best of the Leafs’ era. This is MY victory (along with the small faction of the fanbase actually paying attention), and I’m not letting you guys put your name on the group project at the 11th hour without doing any other work.

Hunter: We have no response. That was perfect. 

25. Vancouver Canucks

Record: 9-9-2, -7
Last Week: 22nd (-3)
Hunter’s Rank: 26th
Scott’s Rank: 25th

Scott: The Canucks snapped a three-game losing streak with a comeback win over the Lightning on Sunday, but even that win showed the signs of their injury struggles, as they got heavily outplayed at parts of the game. Thatcher Demko and Quinn Hughes were the most recent additions to that list, and while Hughes only missed one game before returning on Sunday, Demko is week-to-week. At least they have more reinforcements on the way in *checks notes* David Kampf. To be honest, their center depth is that dire, he actually is a big step up.

Hunter: If only there was a hockey team that lacked center depth due to injuries and underperformance. Perhaps another Canadian team. Maybe one that- ah screw it, what a bungled situation in Toronto. 

26. Washington Capitals

Record: 8-8-2, +3
Last Week: 18th (-8)
Hunter’s Rank: 27th
Scott’s Rank: 24th

Hunter: No, I did not expect Tom Wilson to be within two shots on goal of Alex Ovechkin if the two had played the same amount of games, nor did I expect Wilson to have more goals and a higher expected goals rate. Maybe I’m cherry-picking stats, but the Capitals feel like they’re closer to the NHL’s mushy middle than as a playoff contender. Speaking of which, they play four legitimate playoff contenders this week. We’ll circle back next Monday and see how they did. 

Oh, by the way: Jakob Chychrun is quietly having the best season of his career, at or near the top among defenders in terms of shot attempts and expected goals, and is on pace to surpass the career-high 47 points he recorded last season. If that shooting percentage of 6.6% inches closer to his career average of 7.5%, watch out. 

27. Minnesota Wild

Record: 9-7-4, -5
Last Week: 30th (+3)
Hunter’s Rank: 25th
Scott’s Rank: 27th

Scott: The Wild are beginning to show some signs of life with a 6-1-1 record in their last eight games, and they’re now a lot closer to the playoff hunt than before. Their overall play has still been a bit sloppy, but that hasn’t mattered with Jesper Wallstedt’s recent performance, as his .978 save percentage and 2.72 5v5 goals saved above expected in the month of November leads all goaltenders. It’s a shame he’s only played three games, but at least Filip Gustavsson has returned to form a bit as well with a .909 SV% and 5.02 5v5 GSAx in November.

28. Buffalo Sabres

Record: 6-8-4, -13
Last Week: 28th (0) 
Hunter’s Rank: 28th
Scott’s Rank: 29th

Hunter: On Oct. 20, I wrote that the Sabres may be better than we expected; the following week, I echoed that sentiment, writing that they were “not terrible.” Maybe it was me just trying to will Buffalo playing half decent into existence. Mea culpa! Hey, at least they defeated the Red Wings on Saturday, their first win in two weeks. It’s also nice to see Tage Thompson record three goals and three assists in his last four games. 

29. St. Louis Blues

Record: 6-9-4, -22
Last Week: 29th (0)
Hunter’s Rank: 30th
Scott’s Rank: 28th

Hunter: The Blues are so bad that I’m going to use this space to talk about the Canadian Olympic team’s goaltending situation. Did you know that Jordan Binnington has the second-worst save percentage among goalies with a minimum of 10 games played? Or the fourth-worst goals-against average within that same group? If you want advanced stats, he’s dead last in both goals saved above expected and wins above replacement? Or fourth-last in save percentage above expected? 

What I’m trying to say is: Binnington will likely make the roster and could very well earn a “Thanks for winning the 4 Nations Face-Off” start in the first game. But if Canada wants to continue its dominance when it’s best-on-best, it’s hard to justify putting him in the crease.

Scott: There are several “Thanks for winning the 4 Nations Face-Off” players that may still get spots on Canada when they don’t deserve it at this point, and Binnington may not even be the only one on the Blues.

Hunter: Good God almighty, that’s Colton Parayko’s music! 

30. San Jose Sharks

Record: 8-8-3, -7
Last Week: 26th (-4) 
Hunter’s Rank: 29th
Scott’s Rank: 31st

Scott: The Sharks saw their seven-game point streak end with back-to-back losses to a struggling Flames team and a middling Kraken team, another sign that maybe we shouldn’t get too excited about this team’s playoff chances. On top of Celebrini’s stellar play to start the season, Yaroslav Askarov’s play has been incredible recently, with a .971 SV% and 6.9 5v5 GSAx in November. Not to beat the dead horse that is Barry Trotz’s roster management these days, but choosing Juuse Saros in the end of his prime over the up-and-coming Askarov may be a move that haunts this team down the road.

Hunter: Don’t worry, Trotz can totally redeem himself by trading Saros to the Oilers for a package we can’t even fathom. 

31. Nashville Predators

Record: 6-10-4, -21
Last Week: 31st (0) 
Hunter’s Rank: 31st
Scott’s Rank: 30th

Hunter: The Predators finally won a second game in November, and all they had to do was fly nearly 5,000 miles to Stockholm, Sweden. Filip Forsberg, in front of his home country, scored with a minute left in Friday’s game against the Penguins to tie it, with Steven Stamkos scoring the overtime winner. They took a licking on Sunday, but Nashville fans are hoping the European trip will boost the spirit of a dejected Predators group. 

32. Calgary Flames

Record: 5-12-3, -19
Last Week: 32nd (0) 
Hunter’s Rank: 32nd
Scott’s Rank: 32nd

Hunter: There’s too much negativity in the world, so let’s find some positives with the Flames. Nazem Kadri has a goal and assist in eight games, Jonathan Huberdeau has two assists in his last six, Morgan Frost has a goal and two assists in his last eight, and Dustin Wolf has allowed at least three goals in his last four games … wait, what were we talking about again? 

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