Olympic men’s hockey quarterfinal preview: United States vs. Sweden

Feb 17, 2026, 18:29 ESTUpdated: Feb 18, 2026, 08:59 EST

Team U.S.A. let their offensive ability shine in their 5-1 win over Latvia.

Credit: Feb 12, 2026; Milan, Italy; Auston Matthews of United States celebrates scoring their fifth goal with Matthew Tkachuk of United States against Latvia in men's ice hockey group C play during the Milano Cortina 2026 Olympic Winter Games at Milano Santagiulia Ice Hockey Arena. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-Imagn Images

United States (3-0-0-0) vs. Sweden (2-0-1-0): Feb. 18, 3:10 p.m. ET

HOW THEY GOT HERE

On paper, the United States had an excellent preliminary round. Placed in a pool with Denmark, Germany and Latvia, they were the clear favourites, and expected to win every game. They did just that, and won all three by margins of three-plus goals. But it still feels like the U.S. was missing something. Whether it was their struggles first period struggles, the lack of chemistry from their forwards, or the lack of a truly tough opponent in the preliminary round, something felt slightly off with this squad. A matchup with Sweden may help them iron out those kinks.

As for Sweden, a disappointing preliminary round filled with lackluster performances and questionable coaching decisions resulted in a seventh-seeded placement in the final standings. Many cited the qualifying game as an extra opportunity to figure out their issues before facing tougher competition in the quarterfinals, which was certainly the case against Latvia. While the Latvians held Sweden scoreless through the first 10 minutes of the game, two goals in 41 seconds midway through the frame broke the game open, and they more or less cruised to a 5-1 win.

WHEN THEY LAST MET IN BEST ON BEST…

You don’t have to go back too far to find the last time these two teams met, as by nature of both teams participating in the 4 Nations Face-Off last year, they had to play each other in the preliminary round. Sweden and the USA’s matchup was a forgotten one, as the Americans already secured a spot in the final, and with Canada beating Finland earlier in the day, Sweden was already eliminated. The game was such an afterthought, some might forget Sweden won the game. While Chris Kreider scored 35 second in for the USA, Gustav Nyquist and Jesper Bratt scored later in the first to make it 2-1, and that was all the offense in the game. Samuel Ersson had a spectacular game, stopping 32 of 33 shots in the win, and as a result, Sweden managed to avoid finishing last in the tournament with the regulation win.

TOP SCORERS

United States
1. Auston Matthews, F: 3 GP, 3 G, 2 A, 5 PTS
2. Matthew Tkachuk, F: 3 GP, 0 G, 5 A, 5 PTS
3. Jack Eichel, F: 3 GP, 1 G, 3 A, 4 PTS
4. Quinn Hughes, D: 3 GP, 0 G, 4 A, 4 PTS
T5. Brady Tkachuk/Brock Nelson, F: 3 GP, 2 G, 1 A, 3 PTS
(One other player with three points)

Sweden
1. Lucas Raymond, F: 4 GP, 1 G, 7 A, 8 PTS
2. Mika Zibanejad, F: 4 GP, 2 G, 3 A, 5 PTS
3. Rasmus Dahlin, D: 4 GP, 1 G, 4 A, 5 PTS
T4. Adrian Kemp, F: 4 GP, 2 G, 2 A, 4 PTS
T4. William Nylander, F: 4 GP, 2 G, 2 A, 4 PTS
(One other player with four points)

UNITED STATES

Even if it feels like better players were left off the United States roster, this is still the best team they’ve ever brought to the Olympics. They’ll never rival a center depth of Connor McDavid, Nathan MacKinnon and Sidney Crosby, but Jack Eichel, Auston Matthews, Dylan Larkin and Brock Nelson are pretty close. Their winger depth is also an excellent group, featuring a mix of offensive talents and big-bodied crease-crashers with a scoring prowess. They boast the deepest blueline in the tournament, including the two best puck-movers not named Cale Makar in Quinn Hughes and Zach Werenski, along with one of the best shutdown defensemen in hockey in Jaccob Slavin. Oh, and they also have the deepest goaltending pool, with three-time Vezina Trophy winner Connor Hellebuyck leading the way.

But if there’s been one downside to some of the United States’ decision-making is it left them no leeway if their lineups didn’t click. The top line with Eichel and the Tkachuk brothers has performed well, but the middle six lines haven’t done the same, and it’s lead to some slow starts which have kept weaker opponents in games. Outside of moving Jack Hughes up the lineup or swapping out Kyle Connor for Clayton Keller, they lack the options to change up their forward group if things aren’t clicking. Perhaps this is where bringing a Jason Robertson, Alex DeBrincat or Cole Caufield would have been a benefit over Vincent Trocheck or J.T. Miller, who have been quite invisible in the tournament. That’s fine against weaker opponents, but a matchup against Sweden and at some point Canada could see those problems exposed.

SWEDEN

Much like the United States, one couldn’t help but feel underwhelmed by Sweden’s performance in the preliminary round. While Sam Hallam’s interesting roster decisions played a role in those struggles, it felt like most of Sweden’s star players were playing a tad under expectations. Then again in a small tournament like the Olympics, performing at expectations feels disappointing when many fans expect video game totals like what the Canadians are putting up. However, the stars showed up in the third game against Slovakia and in the qualifying round against Latvia, particularly Raymond, who managed one goal and six points. Adrian Kempe, Mika Zibanejad, Elias Pettersson, William Nylander and Filip Forsberg were also much better in those games, and it feels like the top end of their offense is finally clicking like it should be. Zibanejad and Pettersson are particularly important. Considering Sweden’s biggest weakness is their center depth, having both players at the top of their game will be essential against a team as deep down the middle as the USA.

But the bigger concern in Sweden was the goaltending. Filip Gustavsson seemed like the easy choice to start, but an .889 save percentage in two games meant Jacob Markstrom, who’s been shaky all season with the New Jersey Devils, was thrust into the starting gig. He was good but not great against Slovakia in the final preliminary game, but he did the job against Latvia in the qualifying round. That said, Samuel Hlavaj and Elvis Merzlikins aren’t Connor Hellebuyck. Markstrom will certainly have to be up to the task again, and he’ll be playing in back-to-back days as well.

BURNING QUESTIONS

Will the United States be battle-tested enough to play Sweden? One of the biggest conversations surrounding the United States is how they have yet to be significantly challenged in this tournament. Group C had a high floor, but they certainly had the lowest ceiling. Now as they’re set to play Sweden in the quarterfinals, are they ready to go against another team full of NHLers? Sweden has struggled, and USA is the better team on paper, but Sweden also got a game against Finland. The closest the Americans got to a challenge roster-wise was Germany, and in terms of an actual game competition, it was Latvia. Still, better now than never. The Americans will need to be warmed up if they want to do well against Canada.

Can Sweden square up to the United States in the crease for one game? As I mentioned previously, the Swedes are in a tough spot in net going into this game. If Markstrom plays, he’ll be playing tired against a strong USA squad, with the reigning Vezina and Hart Trophy winner opposite him. Gustavsson has struggled and likely won’t play again. Jesper Wallstedt is an option, but he’ll be going into the game cold. There isn’t exactly an ideal solution here for Sweden, and it puts them another step behind in a matchup which the Americans already has an advantage. But crazier goaltending performances have happened in situations like this. Sweden just needs one good game from one of their goalies to get the job done.

PREDICTION

While you can make a big fuss about how the United States haven’t faced a tough opponent in this tournament yet and haven’t needed to reach another gear yet, or how Sweden has struggled early on, the nice part about a matchup like this is both of those concerns cancel each other out. If both teams are playing a step or two behind where they should be, then they’re still dealing with the same skill gap they would have if they were playing at the top of their games.

With that in mind, it feels like this is the Americans’ game to lose. For every strength of Sweden’s, the United States are just as strong, if not stronger, and Sweden’s biggest weaknesses are the U.S.A.’s biggest strengths. The biggest wild card will be rest vs. fatigue and how both teams respond. This will certainly be the United States’ biggest test, and will likely give them a better taste of what they’ll face against Canada, but it still feels like it will go in the U.S.A.’s favour. United States wins 4-2.

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