Olympic men’s hockey semifinal preview: Canada vs. Finland

CANADA (4-0-0-0) vs. FINLAND (3-0-0-1): Feb. 20, 10:40 a.m. ET

HOW THEY GOT HERE

Canada survived its quarterfinal matchup with Czechia, but only just. The Canadians struck early off the stick of Macklin Celebrini and would surely have envisioned a repeat of their 5-0 dismissal of the Czechs earlier in the tournament. Instead, superstar sniper David Pastrnak and crafty vet Ondrej Palat would put Czechia in the lead in the first and third periods, respectively. Martin Necas’s persistent torment of the Canadian defense meant the balance of dangerous chances was as tight as the score before bailouts from Jordan Binnington and Mitch Marner eventually saved the day for Canada during a 4-3 overtime triumph. Now, the favorites’ relief after a near collapse must give way to focus ahead of their next test, a meeting with Finland. 

Team Finland similarly needed overtime to sneak past a game opponent, in their case Switzerland, who finished fifth overall in group play and was not an unpopular selection to pull off the upset. The Finns were less surprised than Canada at how hard their opponents pushed but were nonetheless antsy after Swiss goalie Leonardo Genoni protected his shutout bid (and his team’s 2-0 lead) well into the third frame. With just six minutes left in regulation, Sebastian Aho finally solved the Genoni puzzle with a sneaky release before stud puck-mover Miro Heiskanen’s 6-on-5 equalizer took the wind out of Switzerland’s sails and sent the game to overtime. Artturi Lehkonen added to his long list of clutch goals to end the extra period and send Finland into the final four.

WHEN THEY LAST MET IN BEST ON BEST…

The latest battle between two very different team dynamics went down at the 4 Nations Face-Off, when a rampant Team Canada jumped out to a 4-0 lead behind tallies from Connor McDavid, Nathan Mackinnon (twice), and Brayden Point, who’s missing from the Olympics due to injury. Just when it seemed Canada was ready to coast to victory with less than seven minutes remaining, goals by gutsy defenseman Esa Lindell and Olympic captain Mikael Granlund (twice) narrowed the gap to 4-3. Canada survived after an empty-netter from Sidney Crosby, but would have been eliminated from the final had Finland sent the game to OT. The Canadians almost learned the hard way never to look past such a crafty and resilient opponent, a lesson they’ll do well to remember ahead of Friday’s semifinal matchup.

TOP SCORERS 

Canada
1. Connor McDavid, F: 4 GP, 2 G, 9 A, 11 P
2. Macklin Celebrini, F: 4 GP, 5 G, 4 A, 9 P
T3. Nathan MacKinnon, F: 4 GP, 3 G, 3 A, 6 P
T3. Sidney Crosby, D: 4 GP, 2 G, 4 A, 6 P
5. Mitch Marner, F: 4 GP, 1 G, 4 A, 5 P

Finland
T-1. Mikko Rantanen, F: 4 GP, 1 G, 4 A, 5 PTS
T-1. Artturi Lehkonen, F: 4 GP, 2 G, 3 A, 5 PTS 
T-2. Sebastian Aho, F: 4 GP, 3 G, 1 A, 4 PTS
T-2. Joel Armia, F: 4 GP, 2 G, 2 A, 4 PTS
T-2. Kaapo Kakko, F: 4 GP, 2 G, 2 A, 4 PTS

CANADA

Wednesday was the first time an opponent has forced Canada to breathe heavily at the Olympics. Some combination of Celebrini, MacKinnon, and McDavid, three of the NHL’s top four scorers, have typically closed up shop before things got to that point. MacKinnon’s Colorado Avalanche teammates, Cale Makar and Devon Toews, provide a similarly unbeatable unit on the blueline. Toews often plays the straight man beside the more explosive Makar, but it was his point shot that Nick Suzuki tipped past Lukas Dostal to send the quarterfinal contest to overtime. Though Binnington gave up three Czech goals, he added to his mythical big-game reputation by stifling Necas on a breakaway late in the contest and stopping a chance from Radim Simek in tight in overtime. Whether Binnington should have had the cage to begin with, he’s earned it now.  

FINLAND

The Finns’ trust in their chemistry and their depth is one of the reasons they have a point-per-game player on all four lines. They’ll still want to see Granlund, Roope Hintz, and Mikko Rantanen, who once made up the Dallas Stars’ ‘Finnish Five’ with top pair Heiskanen and Esa Lindell, step up and provide some star power in a game of this magnitude. Aho and Lehkonen already did their parts, and Anton Lundell’s stellar checking line will have its hands full with McDavid. Heiskanen, Lindell, and a towering second pair of Nikko Mikkola and Rasmus Ristolainen form an underrated defensive nucleus for Finland. You still get the feeling they’ll still need some inspired work by workhorse goalie Juuse Saros to continue their gold medal defense into the final.

BURNING QUESTIONS 

Canada: Is depth a problem on defense, too? We already know Canada hasn’t gotten enough out of the lines that aren’t led by McDavid and Crosby (who we expect to be replaced by Nick Suzuki between Marner and Mark Stone), as our Matt Larkin wrote yesterday. What about the defensive units not featuring Makar and Toews? Thomas Harley was the only other Canadian defender to play more than 20 minutes in an overtime game on Wednesday, and Canada’s mish-mash of part-time pairings never looked comfortable against Pastrnak or Necas. Things won’t get any less tense against a lively Finnish forecheck. 

Finland: Does practice make perfect against McDavid? Preparing for a motivated No. 97 is a task that has proved too much for all but one team over the past two-and-a-half years: the Florida Panthers. Finland has two thirds of said team’s relentless checking line and one of its 6’6” shutdown defenseman, you say? Interesting. Mikkola, Lundell, and Eetu Luostarinen have more experience going head-to-head with McDavid than anyone. Perhaps they know him just well enough that hard-matching Lundell’s line and Mikkola’s pair to McDavid and Celebrini puts some extra pressure on Canada’s so-far anonymous bottom six. 

PREDICTION

Don’t be surprised if the Canadians end up thanking Czechia for exposing so many blind spots. Ironing out some of their depth scoring and defensive issues ahead of the medal round will only make Canada more unstoppable. Don’t be surprised, either, if Finland exposes a few more cracks in Team Canada’s armor in the semis. Even if Canada is too big to fail, nothing will come easy against a very tough Finnish team that has essentially been playing for its life since an early upset by the Slovaks. Prediction: Canada wins 4-2.

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