The top 10 Rocket Richard Trophy candidates for 2026-27
The NHL is blessed with many talented goal scorers, but it’s remarkable to consider what has to go right for a player to rank among the elite every season. We’ve seen 23 different 40-goal seasons across the past two years in the NHL – compiled by 22 different players. That’s right: only one player, Tage Thompson, has hit 40 in each of the past two seasons.
It’s thus extremely difficult to project who will lead the NHL in goals this coming season. We’re not far removed from an era of dominance in which Alex Ovechkin and Auston Matthews combined to win 10 Rocket Richard Trophies in a span of 12 seasons between 2012-13 and 2023-24. But with Ovechkin reaching his 40s in years, not goals, and Matthews battling injury issues, it’s anyone’s guess as to who takes the crown now.
We’ve seen first-time Rocket winners in three of the past four seasons, with superstars Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl and Nathan MacKinnon flexing their sniper muscles. Will another first-timer take the goal-scoring crown this season? Or can Matthews snatch it back?
Here are my top 10 Rocket Richard candidates for 2026-27, with bet365 Sportsbook odds included.
10. Auston Matthews, C, Toronto Maple Leafs (+1000)
How prolific has Matthews been as a goal scorer so far in his career? Believe it or not, despite his time missed over the past couple seasons, he still has one more goal through 689 career games than all-time leader Ovechkin did. Nevertheless, while Matthews felt like a serious long-term challenger to the record just a couple years ago, there are legitimate questions as to whether he’ll ever be the same player again after missing 15 and 22 games, respectively, over the past two seasons due to upper-body and knee injuries. That said: he was missing elite facilitator Mitch Marner last season after he headed to the Vegas Golden Knights. Now, Matthews gets a new silky-mitted teammate with massive playmaker upside in Gavin McKenna. Even if the two don’t share a line at first, they should end up on the top power-play unit together. The supporting cast improvement checks one key box in Matthews’ quest for a career rebound, but health remains a question mark, which is why I have the three-time Rocket winner relatively low on this list. Even reaching 70 games would be a win for him.
9. Kirill Kaprizov, LW, Minnesota Wild (+850)
The dynamic superstar consistently produces among the best all-around scorers in the NHL. He has reached 40 goals in four of his first six seasons and, in his injury-shortened 2024-25, he was pacing for 50. Kaprizov still has some peak-level production left in him at age 29, and he’ll get a full season of all-world defenseman Quinn Hughes helping drive the play Minnesota’s way. This year might mark Kaprizov’s best shot at a Rocket run. Then again, he has yet to score 50 goals in a campaign, and we haven’t seen a total lower than 50 lead the league in a non-shortened NHL season since 2017-18, so it will take a career year for Kaprizov to get there.
8. Connor McDavid, C, Edmonton Oilers (+1400)
McDavid reminds me of prime Sidney Crosby in that each player is an all-around dominant scorer who doesn’t have to fill the net to be great but can seemingly flick a switch and become the world’s best sniper whenever he feels like it. McDavid went off for a career-best 64 goals on 352 shots three years ago. Since then, his total has fluctuated from 32 to 26 to 48. He belongs on this list because the Rocket is a ceiling award, but he’s as likely to lead the league as he is to finish last in goals among the 10 guys on this list.
7. Tage Thompson, C, Buffalo Sabres (+1800)
As the lone back-to-back 40-goal scorer over the past two seasons, Thompson brings the high floor of a worthy Richard candidate. Blessed with a monstrous reach and lethal one-timer, he has buried 40 or more in three of his past four campaigns. It still feels like, on raw talent and the fact he’s still only 28, he’s capable of beating his career high of 47. It also helps that the Sabres are a much better team than they were earlier in his career. If he can play 80-plus games again and if the Sabres can improve their underachieving power play, 50 goals remain within reach.
6. Wyatt Johnston, C, Dallas Stars (+1600)
Johnston has improved from 24 to 32 to 33 to 45 goals across his first four seasons and is just entering his prime at 23. The trajectory suggests he’s not done ascending and about to break through among the NHL’s truly elite goal scorers, and he’s a fine Rocket bet. The only hesitation I have is that his league-leading power-play goal total will be difficult to repeat – only one player this millennium has scored more in a season with the man advantage – but gains in 5-on-5 play can offset the power-play regression.
5. Cutter Gauthier, RW, Anaheim Ducks (+3500)
We can start with the obvious caveat that Gauthier, an RFA, needs to sign a contract soon if he wants to avoid missing the start of training camp. Assuming he does, he’s a great Rocket Richard candidate. Not only did he explode for 41 goals as a sophomore, but he should continue filling the net simply because he gets so many opportunities. Gauthier was second among all players in shots on goal per 60, first in individual shot attempts per 60 and seventh in individual scoring chances per 60 in 5-on-5 play last season. Rather than being opportunistic, Gauthier ups his odds by buzzing the net with pucks like few others can. With the Ducks’ depth depleted, we should also expect him to play quite a bit more than the 17:15 he averaged last season, increasing his chance volume even more.
4. Leon Draisaitl, C, Edmonton Oilers (+550)
Draisaitl, a future Hall of Famer, won the Rocket the season before last and has finished top four in the NHL in goals six times in his career. He’ll continue producing as one of the NHL’s genuinely elite offensive superstars whenever he’s on the ice. He deserves consideration among the top 2026-27 Rocket contenders for track record alone, but his injuries have cost him 28 games over the past couple seasons. He and McDavid have captured almost every individual award imaginable and only really care about the Stanley Cup now, so there’s always a risk of late-season load management for Draisaitl.
3. Cole Caufield, LW, Montreal Canadiens (+550)
In an amazing stretch run, Caufield buried 19 goals in his final 24 games after the Olympic break last season, achieving his first 50-goal season and making a serious push to snatch the Rocket from MacKinnon. More than those of the other names at the top of this list, Caufield’s game is specifically about goals, and his opportunities will remain plentiful while he plays on a dynamite first line with Nick Suzuki and Juraj Slafkovsky. If there’s any pause on picking Caufield to finally capture the award named after a fellow Hab in Maurice Richard, it’s that Caufield’s shooting percentage was by far the highest of his career last season at 19.8. He’d never even scored 40, let alone 50, before doing it last season. Will it go down as his career year, or is this Caufield’s new level?
2. Macklin Celebrini, C, San Jose Sharks (+950)
The 115-point sophomore campaign was jaw-droppingly awesome, and we can’t forget that the breakout season included 45 goals. Celebrini is already one of the best players on Earth heading into his age-20 season, and he’s nowhere close to his ceiling, which is terrifying. When we factor in that the talent around him should continue improving, it’s not just possible, but more like probable that he joins the 50-goal club this season. Even just the newly established floor of last season placed him near the top of the goals leaderboard.
1. Nathan MacKinnon, C, Colorado Avalanche (+475)
At first glance, we could put Nate in the same bucket as McDavid and assume last season was another example of a generational superstar “choosing” to have a big goal-scoring year. But MacKinnon has been more of a consistent shooter and goal scorer in his career. Even before he won the Rocket with 53 goals last season, he’d scored 51 two years prior. He has also led the NHL in shots on goal for three consecutive seasons and five times overall in his career. So MacKinnon combines the mega-star ceiling with the floor of someone who puts more pucks on net than anyone else in the biz. That makes him the safest Rocket pick.
Other 2026-27 Rocket Richard Trophy candidates to consider
David Pastrnak (Bos)
Dylan Guenther (Uta)
Adrian Kempe (LA)
Matt Boldy (Min)
Nikita Kucherov (TB)
Jason Robertson (Dal)
Alex DeBrincat (Det)
Kyle Connor (Wpg)
Mikko Rantanen (Dal)
Sam Reinhart (Fla)
Alex Ovechkin (Wsh)
Pavel Dorofeyev (NYR)
Mark Scheifele (Wpg)
Jake Guentzel (TB)
Brandon Hagel (TB)
Steven Stamkos (Nsh)
William Nylander (Tor)
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