Can Canada’s women’s team beat the U.S. when it matters?
Yes, the losing streak is over (sort of). Yes, they proved that they can beat them with the kids in the lineup.
However, the question still persists: Can Canada actually beat the United States with the gold medal on the line?
Recent history would prove that’s a tough task. Despite beating the Americans in the first of two pre-tournament games on Wednesday night, the U.S. has run Canada into the ground. Starting with back-to-back victories at the 2025 Women’s Worlds, the Americans won eight straight matchups against their northern rivals, with the streak carrying through the final game at the 2026 Winter Olympics, marking the country’s first tournament title since 2018.
It’s crazy to think that, as good as Canada was in the early days of international competition, the run the U.S. was on tied the longest win streak in the rivalry’s history, matching the Americans’ eight consecutive wins leading up to the 2002 Winter Games.
Yet, for those who have watched every game between the two nations, it wasn’t all that surprising.
I received a lot of backlash when calling for a massive overhaul of Hockey Canada’s women’s program, as many basic fans thought I was crazy for thinking Canada was a bad team after losing in overtime in Milan, having held a 1-0 lead into the waning minutes of overtime. But you have to consider how bad Canada had looked against the U.S. Sure, both games at the last Women’s Worlds were decided by one goal. However, Team USA hammered the Canadians in the four-game rivalry series last fall, outscoring them 24-7. Then, the U.S. won the Olympic group-stage game 5-0, the most lopsided score in Olympic history between the two squads.
That’s why, as the 2026 Women’s World Championship pproaches, it’s still hard to believe that Canada has any answer for an American team that has proven it can rise to the occasion.
Canada did its due diligence over the summer. After head coach Troy Ryan and general manager Gina Kingsbury stepped down, Hockey Canada promoted Kori Cheverie to head coach, hiring national team bench boss Daniele Sauvageau as the new GM. The duo has built the Montreal Victoire into arguably the No. 1 franchise in the PWHL, capturing the Walter Cup last spring. However, even with new voices leading the program, will it translate into a different outcome on the ice?
One major talking point over the past 18 months is that the Americans’ youth and speed outplay Canada’s veteran experience. The U.S. has seen youngsters like Caroline Harvey, Laila Edwards, Abbey Murphy, and Hannah Bilka rise to the forefront, while Canada has relied on its aging core, Marie-Philip Poulin, Sarah Nurse, Jocelyne Larocque, Erin Ambrose, and Ann-Renee Desbiens. That core has been good enough to get the team close to the finish line, with their championship pedigree almost pulling off an upset in Italy last February, but Canada lacks the spark and firepower the U.S. has.
Did I forget to mention that USA still has future Hall of Famers Hilary Knight, Megan Keller, Kendall Coyne Schofield, Aerin Frankel and Alex Carpenter doing amazing things?
Also, heading into Denmark, it doesn’t help that Canada will be without Captain Clutch. Poulin played through a knee injury for much of the second half of the season, the same knee injury that kept her out for a few games at the Olympics. No. 29 underwent successful surgery this offseason, which will keep her out for several months. Poulin’s absence in the round-robin game against the Americans was noticeable, and it’s scary to think how outmatched Canada will be if the two teams meet in next month’s gold medal game.
To think that Canada can out-goalie the U.S. is also a far-fetched theory. Sure, Desbiens is still one of the best in the game, and Kayle Osborne and Eve Gascon are talented, but they are far from being at the same level as the tandem of Aerin Frankel and Gwyneth Philips. Frankel is unquestionably the best goaltender in the world, something she has shown both on the world stage and in the PWHL. She not only backstopped the Americans to gold at the 2025 Worlds and 2026 Olympics, but she also became the first goaltender named the PWHL’s most valuable player. Philips isn’t that far behind her, as she has been the No. 1 reason the Ottawa Charge have made it to back-to-back Walter Cup Finals.
Together, Frankel and Philips combined for the longest shutout streak in women’s Olympic hockey history, not giving up a goal in 352:21 of action. Frankel also pitched three shutouts in the tournament, also a new record.
There’s always the possibility that Canada pulls a rabbit out of the hat when it matters most. The team has done it before, and can certainly do it again. However, when looking at what each team is expected to bring to next month’s Women’s Worlds, it’s hard not to view the American squad as the runaway favorite, even with Canada coming away with a win in Windsor.
The U.S. will remain in Group A in Denmark, facing Czechia, Switzerland, Germany and Austria in the opening round. With the restructured format, Canada will be in Group B, taking on Finland, Sweden, Japan and host Denmark. That means the only way Canada and the U.S. could face off is in the championship game. The tournament begins on Nov. 6, with the gold medals being awarded on Nov. 16.