Can NHL teams miss or make the playoffs in October?
Sweaters and cool weather. Thanksgiving and pumpkin pie. Drama and the Toronto Maple Leafs. Some things just go together nicely this time of year.
Early results and our overreactions to them? That might just be the NHL’s finest fall pairing.
Yes, it’s only three weeks into the league’s grueling, nine-month calendar. But an ugly few weeks from the playoff hopeful Philadelphia Flyers and Los Angeles Kings have invited some tough questions. Meanwhile, afterthought teams like the New York Rangers and Boston Bruins have exploded out of the gate.
Today, we’re exploring whether a team can miss or make the playoffs in its first 10 games. Do false starts doom entire seasons? Do hot starts deliver playoff spots? What point benchmark all but seals a franchise’s fate? We know the sun sets early this time of year, but how early it sets for NHL teams might surprise you.
🦃 The American Thanksgiving Cutoff
Nearly a decade ago, respected Sportsnet insider Elliotte Friedman first planted the seed on how early the playoff picture takes shape. In 2016, Friedman identified that “since the NHL expanded to 30 teams, 78 per cent of those in playoff positions as of [American Thanksgiving] reach the playoffs.” It was a fascinating observation that still echoes today. Friedge’s findings showed how relatively little jockeying for playoff spots happened after what was then the regular season’s de facto quarter mark.
But I always felt the cutoff was missing context. Was it just a playoff ‘in or out’ look on that Thanksgiving Thursday? Teams can be separated by six games played in late November. How was that factored? What about teams that were tied for postseason spots? What about condensed schedules in Olympic years?
The original trend covered the 2000-01 to 2014-15 seasons. Today, that’s a nearly unrecognizable NHL that partially predates the salary cap. Since then, the league added two expansion teams in the Vegas Golden Knights (2017) and Seattle Kraken (2021), inherently lowering playoff odds. It also shifted to a divisional format in 2013 and pivoted to 3-on-3 overtime in 2015. The date of opening night and the schedule’s pace have also undergone many facelifts in response to collective bargaining and international events.
The incredible part?
Friedman’s finding has held up into the 32-team era. Looking at the last five seasons, without any consideration of game count — strictly points on American Thanksgiving — we get the following results:
| Season | Date | Playoff Teams in a Spot | Percentage |
| 2021-22 | November 25, 2021 | 12/16 | 75% |
| 2022-23 | November 24, 2022 | 13/16 | 81% |
| 2023-24 | November 23, 2023 | 13/16 | 81% |
| 2024-25 | November 28, 2024 | 12/16 | 75% |
| 2025-26 | November 27, 2025 | 12/16 | 75% |
| Totals | 62/80 | 78% |
Those last five seasons total to… 78 percent.
Literally no change from the first 15 seasons of this millennium. Despite an infinite sea of changes and a bigger NHL, 12 or 13 of the highly coveted 16 playoff spots remain secured by late November after 20-something games. The last five or six spots are then settled over a four-and-a-half month period.
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With that in mind, let’s see what new Friedman-inspired goal posts around playoff cutoffs we can create by checking the 10 and 25-game marks more closely.
✈️ The 10-Game Mark
When: Right now (mid-to-late October)
Progress in 84-Game Season: 12%
Ten games is such a small slice of the NHL’s schedule.
But those 10 games have had a surprising impact on modern playoff races when it comes to exceptionally good or bad starts. Teams that have banked at least 15 of their potential first 20 points have made the postseason 91% of the time (21 of 23) in the last five seasons. That’s about four teams per season booking playoff tickets on the heels of three strong weeks. Only last season’s New Jersey Devils (16 points) and the 2024-25 Rangers (15) missed the playoffs among 23 teams with at least a .750 mark after 10 games.
Both franchises have been serial offenders in fading over time, featured in last October’s Fall Frauds.
When it comes to ice cold starts, teams that fail to play .500 hockey through 10 games reach the playoffs just 18% of the time (eight of 45). We know .500 isn’t an ‘average’ team in a league with three-point games — .562 was an average points percentage last season. But those are crushing postseason odds based on 10 measly games.
The true gravedigging cutoff after 10 games is eight points. Just one of 23 teams overcame a sub-.400 start. Any guesses? Not only did the 2023-24 Edmonton Oilers (five points) overcome their lousy start, they came within one goal of winning the Stanley Cup. It can be done. But at 4.3% odds of reaching the playoffs in the last five seasons, that path isn’t recommended.
How does your favorite team look through 10 games?
Since quite a few franchises are at least one game shy of 10 through Tuesday’s action, we’re showing the pace for those teams to illustrate their early trajectories.
It’s gotten late early for several teams. Philadelphia (five points through 10 games), the Vancouver Canucks (five), and Pittsburgh Penguins (seven) became the first official long shots (4%) after frustrating starts. To reach the eight-point cutoff and avoid long shot status, the Chicago Blackhawks need to win Game 10, Los Angeles needs four points in three games, and the Calgary Flames need to go 2-0. In the Eastern Conference, the Columbus Blue Jackets require a pair of points over their next two games to escape becoming a long shot.
With a home win against the Carolina Hurricanes on Thursday, the red-hot Oilers can snag the 17 points necessary to become just the eighth early ‘lock’ of the last six seasons. Among other teams cruising early, Vegas (16 points), Boston (15), and Carolina (15) are near locks (88%). The Tampa Bay Lightning can join them with a point in Denver on Friday night.
Of course, it’s only 10 games. There are 74 games to play, folks. The last five seasons revealed more than expected, though. Teams can certainly make or miss the postseason in October with a wicked good or wicked bad start. But franchises in the 10-14 point range are only tilting the scales slightly this early — we need to go deeper into the calendar.
NEW PLAYOFF CUTOFF RULES:
- ✅ After 10 games, 77% of teams that have 13 or more points reach the playoffs.
- ❌ After 10 games, only 18% of teams under .500 reach the playoffs.
⏳ The 25-Game Mark
When: American Thanksgiving (late November)
Progress in 84-Game Season: 30%
We’ll revisit Friedman’s original cutoff: American Thanksgiving (the fourth Thursday of November).
With the regular season starting earlier in 2026-27 and two games added to the schedule, most teams will be a little deeper into the calendar than they used to be at this point. But we’re going to ignore the actual holiday as we want a level playing field, being each team’s 25-game record.
After 25 games, the average team has around 28 points (.555 points percentage). But it’s 31 points that’s the important mark to hit through 25 games: 92% of these teams (49 of 53) make the playoffs. The four teams that flirted hard but deleted the postseason’s number? Those 2025-26 Devils (33 points) top the chart, buckling after Jack Hughes’ infamous steakhouse injury. The 2024-25 Canucks (32) and back-to-back Detroit Red Wings teams (31 and 32 in 2022-23 and 2023-24, respectively) also missed out.
Just 25 games into the schedule, teams performing below average (i.e., 27 points or fewer) are already down to a 16% chance of seeing the postseason, or about one-in-six. That feels so early to face those odds.
The magic number for a team’s season being cooked is 23 points through 25 games. Remarkably, if a team is two games or more under .500 by Game 25, it’s down to a microscopic 2.6% chance at the postseason. The 2024-25 Montreal Canadiens are the only group out of 39 teams to recover from that depth in the last five years.
So, the importance of the American Thanksgiving holiday weekend remains a valuable NHL check-in point that still holds up extremely well.
We shouldn’t get hung up on the date itself, though. Checking points percentage, home versus road splits, schedule difficulty, and man-games lost are still worth your time to understand each team’s situation and outlook. But what remains clear by the 25-game mark: teams a little above or below middle of the pack are already seeing their playoff chances crystalize by late November.
That simple fact remains unchanged for 25 years.
NEW PLAYOFF CUTOFF RULES:
- ✅ After 25 games, 80% of teams that are three games or more above .500 reach the playoffs.
- ❌ After 25 games, only 12% of teams at .500 or worse reach the playoffs.
Data from Hockey-Reference; NHL.com
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