What the Red Wings would look like with better lottery luck

Remember when the Detroit Red Wings had one of the longest playoff streaks in NHL history?

It feels like just yesterday the Red Wings were the model of consistency, making the playoffs every year and, at their best, competing for the Stanley Cup. But just as quickly, they fell from grace, and for the past 10 years, the only consistency found in Detroit is their consistency to miss the playoffs.

Some of the Red Wings’ struggles are self-inflicted. They’ve been inconsistent at the draft, and failed to acquire a plethora of high-end talent for their roster. Former general manager Steve Yzerman jumped the gun on the rebuild and started acquiring middle-of-the-lineup talent which blocked roster spots for their young prospects AND made the team too good to tank, but not good enough to make the playoffs. Yzerman’s inability to properly evaluate defensemen has left their blueline quite barren aside from their young upstarts.

But not all of the Red Wings’ problems are of their own doing. While they could be blamed for their inability to secure more elite talent, luck also played a massive factor in this issue, largely due to the draft lottery. Detroit has had woeful luck with the lottery in the last 10 years, as the results have allowed nine teams to pass them, seen them drop out of the top five twice, and they have also never had their name drawn from the lottery once between the 24 possible draws over 10 lotteries. Even in 2020, when they finished last by a significant margin, they still dropped to fourth in the lottery. I don’t think they could repeat that bad luck at the draft if they tried.

So with the Red Wings’ drought now at 10 years, Dylan Larkin requesting a trade, Steve Yzerman “promoted” from the GM position, and Detroit in all-around chaos, I thought it would be interesting to reflect on the biggest what if for this franchise’s rebuild: what if they had better lottery luck?

For this experiment, I’ll go year-by-year and approach each draft under two assumptions: that the Red Wings will hold at their draft selection pre-lottery, and that they’ll take the player selected at that pick originally. I won’t include any situations where they move up in the draft, only maintaining their previous position. It’s not a true science, because obviously the Red Wings scouting department won’t have the same rankings as other teams, but I thought it would be a fun thought experiment.

2017

Pre-lottery pick: 7th
Actual draft result: Fell two spots, selected Michael Rasmussen 9th

This was an unfortunate start to the Red Wings’ rebuild. Rasmussen was a classic “red flag” first-round pick in 2017, as his six-foot-six frame gave him the size teams always covet. But because of his size, he had the ability to physically dominate teenagers and young adults in the WHL, which was a skillset he wouldn’t be able to translate to the NHL. He was considered a likely bust at the time of the draft, but Ken Holland took the bait and selected Rasmussen. While Rasmussen has managed to stick around in Detroit for nine years, it hasn’t been at the level of a ninth-overall pick, managing just 66 goals and 154 points in 454 games. The top end of the 2017 first round was inconsistent, but the fact that Owen Tippett, Gabriel Vilardi, Martin Necas and Nick Suzuki immediately followed Rasmussen in the draft, with Robert Thomas, Jake Oettinger and Jason Robertson coming within the next round of players, makes the pick sting even more.

Unfortunately for Detroit in this alternate reality, it somehow gets worse. While Rasmussen wasn’t a great pick, he still became an NHLer. But taken in Detroit’s original spot by the New York Rangers was Lias Andersson, who is probably the bust of the 2017 draft. Only Kristian Vesalainen (selected 24th) and Shane Bowers (selected 28th) have fewer games played amongst 2017 first-round picks than Andersson’s 110, and both are the only skaters with fewer career points than Andersson’s 17. While we could assume he develops a little bit better outside of the Rangers’ development system (a quick look at their picks in the last 10 years and they don’t exactly have a great track record of drafting in the first round), I doubt he amounts to much as an NHLer with Detroit either.

Result: Drafted Lias Andersson, no longer on NHL roster

2018

Pre-lottery pick: 5th
Actual draft result: Fell one spot, selected Filip Zadina 6th

Here’s a lesson in why you shouldn’t put much stock in post-draft reactions (sorry Steven). In 2018, the Red Wings were considered one of the biggest winners of the NHL draft, as Zadina and Joe Veleno, considered to be two of the more talented players in this draft class, fell to their laps at 6th and 30th overall, respectively. However, as of today, neither player is a consistent NHLer, and neither has cracked the 100-point milestone in their NHL careers. In Detroit’s defense, this was an extremely weak first round overall (eight seasons later, and only six players have hit the 250-point mark and only 10 have played 400 games), but this coupled with the Rasmussen bust the year prior was a brutal start to their rebuild. Oh, and Quinn Hughes was drafted the pick after Zadina. Ouch.

However, there is some improvement in our alternate reality, as moving up a spot gives the Red Wings Barrett Hayton instead. To be fair, Hayton was considered a reach by the Arizona Coyotes at the time, and hasn’t exactly played at the quality of a top-five pick, but he’s at least a consistent NHLer. He also gives the Red Wings a solid middle-six center option, which in turn might mean they only spend money on one of Andrew Copp or J.T. Compher in free agency in 2022 and 2023. If we’re being realistic, Detroit probably still takes Zadina at No. 5 if the Carolina Hurricanes don’t leapfrog them in the lottery, but in this universe, Hayton gives them some improvement down the road over Zadina.

Result: Drafted Barrett Hayton, who makes roster by 2021-22 season and ensures Detroit doesn’t sign J.T. Compher in 2023

2019

Pre-lottery pick: 4th
Actual draft result: Fell two spots, selected Moritz Seider 6th

Seider may be the crown jewel of Detroit’s rebuild. Considered to be a reach at sixth overall at the time of the draft, he has since developed into not just a top-pair defenseman for the Red Wings, but he may be one of the best defensemen in the league. He’s been a minute muncher since his Calder Trophy-winning rookie season in 2021-22, and he probably should have been a finalist for the Norris. Heck, he could probably be considered as the best player taken in the 2019 draft, depending on how much you want to dock Jack Hughes for his health. Unless Detroit was also planning on taking Seider fourth, this might be a scenario where dropping in the lottery actually helped them.

And in this case, it was. The Colorado Avalanche, who were also punished when the pick they acquired from the Ottawa Senators dropped from first to fourth overall, also went with a defenseman, taking Bowen Byram. While Byram has proven to be a solid top-four defenseman, he has been inconsistent in his career, and is a clear downgrade on Seider. In Byram’s defense, he’s found himself stuck behind some great defensemen like Cale Makar and Devon Toews in Colorado and Rasmus Dahlin and Owen Power with the Buffalo Sabres, so maybe he develops better as the top guy in Detroit. But still, I doubt he improves to the level of Seider. And assuming the contracts end up the same, Byram is about to be paid almost 1.5x the amount Seider is. Definitely a notable downgrade.

Result: Drafted Bowen Byram, makes roster by 2021-22

2020

Pre-lottery pick: 1st
Actual draft result: Fell three spots, selected Lucas Raymond 4th

This was the year for the Red Wings’ rebuild. They finished last in the league by a significant margin, with their 39 points before the season was shut down trailing the next-worst Senators by 23! Detroit was poised to select first overall, but unfortunately, the draft lottery had other plans, as “Team E” (eventually the Rangers), the Los Angeles Kings and the Senators (via the San Jose Sharks) all passed the Red Wings, forcing them to pick fourth. That still worked out for them though, as they drafted another key franchise player in Lucas Raymond.

And much like 2019 with Seider, this is a draft where the Red Wings actually ended up better off than where they were originally. While you don’t want to give up the first-overall pick, this year you could afford to, as consensus top pick Alexis Lafreniere has been one of the weaker selections at No. 1 in recent years. He’s had his moments in the league, and the end of last season showcased he may be on the verge of finding a consistent form. And as I mentioned earlier, the Rangers have a rough track record when it comes to developing their top picks, so maybe he develops better in Detroit. But Raymond is a different caliber of player at this point, and is in the conversation for best player from this draft with Tim Stutzle and Seth Jarvis.

Result: Drafted Alexis Lafreniere, makes roster out of draft

2021

Pre-lottery pick: 6th
Actual draft result: No change in the lottery, selected Simon Edvinsson 6th

We don’t have to dive too deep into this one, as nothing has changed. The Red Wings still end up sixth overall, and they take Edvinsson, who remains a great pick here. You could maybe make the argument that Detroit could have gone for Brandt Clarke or Dylan Guenther instead, but you could also argue Edvinsson has had just as strong of an NHL impact as any of the five players taken before him. While selecting Byram instead of Seider in 2019 means the Red Wings have two good left-shot defensemen for their top four instead of a strong top pair, Edvinsson is still a great (and much-needed) addition to their blueline.

Result: Still draft Simon Edvinsson

2022

Pre-lottery pick: 8th
Actual draft result: No change in the lottery, selected Marco Kasper 8th

Once again, we have no change in the lottery for Detroit, so they still grab Kasper at eighth overall. You could maybe say the Red Wings could pivot elsewhere with this pick since we haven’t seen much from Kasper at the NHL level, but to be fair, aside from Juraj Slafkovsky, Logan Cooley, Cutter Gauthier or Lane Hutson, most of this draft class hasn’t fully developed yet. And of those four players, only Hutson was still on the board when Detroit was up. There’s still plenty of time for Kasper’s game to round out into a top-six forward, and maybe even as a strong pivot down the middle.

Result: Still draft Marco Kasper

2023

Pre-lottery pick: 9th
Actual draft result: No change in the lottery, selected Nate Danielson 9th

Again, nothing changes here, the Red Wings still draft at No. 9 and they take Danielson. He’s still too young to make any bold acclamations about who Detroit should have taken instead, outside of maybe pointing out that Dalibor Dvorsky, Zach Benson and more have already made NHL impacts, but there’s still a lot of room for Danielson to grow into the center Detroit needs.

Result: Still draft Nate Danielson

2024

Pre-lottery pick: 15th
Actual draft result: No change in the lottery, selected Michael Brandsegg-Nygard 15th

As the Red Wings got more and more competitive, they drifted further away from the lottery picture, meaning there wasn’t a threat of dropping lower in the lottery, but they also weren’t in the running for top prospects they’d regretfully miss out on. It’s incredibly early to jump to conclusions about this draft class, but the fact that Brandsegg-Nygard has already got some NHL action is a great sign. Save for Ilya Protas or Cole Hutson, there aren’t too many names taken past MBN who would be a notable improvement right now.

Result: Still draft Michael Brandsegg-Nygard

2025

Pre-lottery pick: 12th
Actual draft result: Fell one spot, selected Carter Bear 13th

Even as the Red Wings weren’t gunning for top draft picks, the draft lottery still has some fun with them. Despite only having the 12th-best odds, Detroit saw some movement around them, as the Utah Mammoth (14th-best odds) overtook the Wings to get the fourth-overall pick, while the New York Islanders (10th-best odds) catapulted to first overall to get Matthew Schaefer. Don’t feel too bad Red Wings fans: even if Detroit won a lottery pick, the highest they could go was second, so they were never in the running for Schaefer.

As for Detroit’s actual selection, they went with Carter Bear. He hasn’t played professional hockey yet, so it’s tough to get a true read on him as a player (again, we’re super early with these picks). Had Detroit not fallen a spot, Jack Nesbitt was the player taken at No. 12 by the Philadelphia Flyers, who also hasn’t played pro hockey yet.We are far from knowing what both Bear and Nesbitt will look like in the NHL, but all signs point to Bear being the higher-upside option. So once again, the Red Wings may have fared better when the draft lottery screwed them again.

Result: Drafted Jack Nesbitt, has yet to make roster

2026

For the first time in the Red Wings’ playoff drought, they traded their first-round pick. In this case, they moved the pick to the St. Louis Blues to acquire Justin Faulk, who remains on Detroit’s roster in both realities. This pick then moved on to the Anaheim Ducks as the Blues swung a deal for Mason McTavish, and the Ducks selected Nikita Klepov at 15th overall, where it was originally meant to be. The Red Wings did have a later pick in the first round, where they selected J.P. Hurlbert, but this was from a pick they acquired from the Mammoth in exchange for Sebastian Cossa.

Alternate Lineup

Finally, let’s look at what the lineup would look like for this alternate reality of the Red Wings. As a reference, I went off of Daily Faceoff’s projected lineup for the Red Wings for next season, and swapped out the previously drafted players for their replacements, with the only other roster assumption being that Detroit didn’t sign Compher in 2023 with Hayton already in their lineup. All new players are italicized.

LW	C	RW
Emmitt Finnie	Dylan Larkin	Alexis Lafreniere
Alex DeBrincat	Andrew Copp	Viktor Arvidsson
Carter Mazur	Barrett Hayton	Mason Appleton
Michael Brandsegg-Nygard	Marco Kasper	Keegan Kolesar
LD	RD	G
Bowen Byram	Justin Faulk	John Gibson
Simon Edvinsson	Axel Sandin-Pellikka	Daniil Tarasov
Ben Chiarot	Jacob Bernard-Docker
Albert Johansson	Jacob Bryson

Save for the upgrade from Compher to Hayton, this roster is weaker than the current iteration of the Red Wings. Losing the two staples of their rebuild in Seider and Raymond is already bad enough, but not getting an improvement in those respective drafts really weakens their overall team. Again, maybe Lafreniere and Byram do better in Detroit than they did in New York and Colorado/Buffalo, but it does hurt the look of their team. According to Evolving Hockey, the Red Wings lose 6.8 expected wins above replacement, all due to Raymond and Seider leaving, while Hayton, Lafreniere and Byram only give Detroit 3.4 in return.

The only other interesting factor with this new team is their cap situation. According to PuckPedia, the Red Wings have a projected $19,572,084 in salary cap space, although they still need to re-sign Edvinsson. In this world, their cap space increases to $26,022,084, and puts them barely $1 million over the cap floor. That likely means Detroit isn’t as stingy with Edvinsson and signs him much sooner, and probably means Detroit signs another player or two in free agency.

But in conclusion, Red Wings fans can probably stop complaining about how poor lottery luck is the reason for the team’s current struggles, because most of the players selected in their original slots were weaker options than who Detroit ended up taking. Again, I can’t assume the same players would be drafted, as different scouting departments prioritize different players, but it goes to show that teams miss with higher picks. As bad as things are for the Wings right now, it could be worse.

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