UNLOCKED: Line Matching – October 10th

Updated: October 10, 2018 at 4:48 pm by Dylan Berthiaume

Line Matching is typically reserved for Premium Members ONLY, but we are having issues with Users signing-in, so it will be released for FREE today until we get this issue resolved.

This post looks at which teams will have an advantage at 5v5. It looks at which lines the home-team will try and match-up against and which line could have an edge. It does not take power-play or goaltending into consideration. 

STATS

  • All totals are per 60 minutes of 5v5 ice time.
  • SCF/SCA- Scoring chances for and against
  • CF/CA – Corsi for and against
  • HDCF/HDCA – High-danger Chances for and against

Matchups

  • Which lines the Home team is expected to be matched up against.

Index

1️⃣ – Indicates PP1 Usage
2️⃣ – Indicates PP2 Usage


Philadelphia Flyers @ Ottawa Senators

Advantage Matchup
PHI2 OTT1
OTT1
Not a hard match
LW O. Lindblom 2️⃣ LW R. Dzingel 1️⃣
C N. Patrick 2️⃣ C Z. Smith 2️⃣
RW T. Konecny 2️⃣ RW M. Stone 1️⃣
Sample: 111:37 TOI (Konecny & Patrick) Sample: 33:19 TOI (Smith & Stone this season)
OFF: 47 CF, 21 SCF, 13 HDCF OFF: 73 CF, 33 SCF, 16 HDCF
DEF: 85 CA, 41 SCA, 17 HDCA DEF: 58 CA, 24 SCA, 13 HDCA
➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖
PHI3 OTT2
N/A
Not a hard match
LW J. Weal LW B. Tkachuk
C M. Vorobyov 2️⃣ C M. Duchene 1️⃣
RW W. Simmonds 1️⃣ RW M. Boedker
Sample: 351:27 TOI (Weal & Simmonds) Sample: No Sample-Tkachuk is a rookie and Boedker is new to the team
OFF: 56 CF, 24 SCF, 9 HDCF OFF: N/A
DEF: 55 CA, 24 SCA, 10 HDCA DEF: N/A
➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖
PHI1 OTT3
PHI1
Not a hard match
LW C. Giroux 1️⃣ LW A. Formenton
C S. Couturier 1️⃣ C C. Tierney 2️⃣
RW J. Voracek 1️⃣ RW B. Ryan 1️⃣
Sample: 376:04 TOI Sample: 17:13 TOI
OFF: 65 CF, 27 SCF, 12 HDCF OFF: 28 CF, 18 SCF, 10 HDCF
DEF: 50 CA, 25 SCA, 10 HDCA DEF: 71 CA, 28 SCA, 7 HDCA

Analysis: The Senators have juggled their lines since their home opener, which makes the matchups for tonight’s game difficult to predict. The Tierney line should see Philly 1 for the majority of their ice tmie, which is obviously a big win for Giroux and company. Ottawa 1 should dominate Philly 2 whenever they are on the ice together, but how much time they see against them is up in the air. The top-heavy nature of the Flyers’ attack means the Senators might not have a choice but to play Smith and Stone against the Flyers’ top line. Regardless of the matchups, Ottawa 1 and Philly 1 both make for viable stacks tonight. Both teams have suffered from sub-par goaltending, so this could turn into a high-scoring affair.

Vegas Golden Knights @ Washington Capitals

Advantage Matchup
VGK2 WSH1
Even
Not a hard match
LW M. Pacioretty 2️⃣ LW A. Ovechkin 1️⃣
C E. Haula 2️⃣ C E. Kuznetsov 1️⃣
RW T. Nosek 1️⃣ RW B. Conolly 2️⃣
Sample: 40:46 TOI (Pacioretty & Haula) Sample: 557:00 TOI (Ovechkin & Kuznetsov)
OFF: 63 CF, 32 SCF, 11 HDCF OFF: 59 CF, 30 SCF, 13 HDCF
DEF: 48 CA, 23 SCA, 13 HDCA DEF: 62 CA, 30 SCA, 15 HDCA
➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖
VGK1 WSH2
Even
Hard match
LW J. Marchessault 1️⃣ LW J. Vrana 2️⃣
C W. Karlsson 1️⃣ C N. Backstrom 1️⃣
RW R. Smith 1️⃣ RW T. Oshie 1️⃣
Sample: 708:33 TOI Sample: 71:13 TOI
OFF: 62 CF, 31 SCF, 12 HDCF OFF: 57 CF, 30 SCF, 11 HDCF
DEF: 50 CA, 24 SCA, 9 HDCA DEF: 53 CA, 20 SCA, 7 HDCA
➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖
VGK3 WSH3
VGK3
Not a hard match
LW R. Carpenter 2️⃣ LW A. Burakovsky
C C. Eakin C L. Eller
RW O. Lindberg RW C. Stephenson 2️⃣
Sample: 134:11 TOI (Nosek & Lindberg) Sample: 297:00 TOI (Eller & Burakovsky)
OFF: 55 CF, 27 SCF, 9 HDCF OFF: 58 CF, 27 SCF, 8 HDCF
DEF: 56 CA, 22 SCA, 9 HDCA DEF: 61 CA, 30 SCA, 15 HDCF

Analysis: The Golden Knights will look to get things back on track in this Stanley Cup Final rematch. Vegas’ new second-line has been strong at even strength and has the slight edge over Washington 1, both those numbers came alongside Paul Stastny. Haula has played well but transitioning to the middle against the likes of Kuznetsov and Ovechkin is a tall order. Vegas 1 and Washington 2 should play out to a wash tonight in what projects to be a relatively low-event matchup. Vegas 3 has a solid advantage over Washington 3 but they don’t see enough ice time to warrant serious consideration as a stack.

Arizona Coyotes @ Anaheim Ducks

 

Advantage Matchup
ARI1 ANA1
ANA1 vs ARI1: ARI1
No match
LW R. Panik 1️⃣ LW R. Rakell 1️⃣
C D. Stepan 1️⃣ C A. Henrique 1️⃣
RW V. Hinostroza 1️⃣ RW T. Terry 2️⃣
ANA1 vs ARI2: Even
Sample: 154:36 TOI (Panik & Stepan) Sample: 107:01 (Rakell & Henrique)
OFF: 75 CF, 32 SCF, 16 HDCF OFF: 49 CF, 25 SCF, 10 HDCF
ANA1 vs ARI3: Even
DEF: 53 CA, 23 SCA, 12 HDCA DEF: 61 CA, 27 SCA, 10 HDCA
➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖
ARI2 ANA2
ANA2 vs ARI1: ARI1
No match
LW B. Perlini 2️⃣ LW M. Comtois 2️⃣
C C. Keller 1️⃣ C S. Steel 1️⃣
RW C. Fischer 2️⃣ RW J. Silfverberg 1️⃣
ANA2 vs ARI2: Slight ARI2
Sample: 129:43 TOI (Keller & Fischer) Sample: 36:28 TOI (Comtois & Silfverberg)
OFF: 53 CF, 21 SCF, 9 HDCF OFF: 37 CF, 23 SCF, 10 HDCF
ANA2 vs ARI3: ARI3
DEF: 65 CA, 27 SCA, 11 HDCA DEF: 102 CA, 47 SCA, 15 HDCA
➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖
ARI3 ANA3
N/A
No match
LW M. Grabner LW A. Cogliano
C B. Richardson C I. Lundestrom
RW N. Cousins RW K. Sherwood 2️⃣
N/A
Sample: 280:28 (Richardson & Cousins) Sample: No Sample-Lundestrom and Sherwood are both rookies.
OFF: 59 CF, 29 SCF, 16 HDCF OFF: N/A
N/A
DEF: 61 CF, 26 SCA, 12 HDCA DEF: N/A

Analysis: Given all the injuries they’re battling up front right now, the Ducks can’t be expected to do a lot of hard line-matching in this one. The matchups were thrown into the blender for Sunday’s home opener against the Red Wings. First-line centre Adam Henrique didn’t see more than 4 and a half minutes against any single Detroit forward. You can expect this trend to continue tonight, so you’ll have to consider all the potential matchups if you’re targeting this game. Anaheim 2’s sample is very small but it is all we have to go off of and it speaks to how bad Comtois and Silfverberg have been at even strength. Keep in mind that despite their failure to control the pace of play, the Ducks have somehow outscored their opponents 3-0 when their second line is on the ice. Arizona 1 and 2 both make for decent value stacks in this matchup.

Suggested Stacks

  1. 1. PHI 1
  2. 2. OTT 1
  3. 3. WSH 1
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Dylan Berthiaume

Dylan has been an Associate Editor of DailyFaceoff since 2018 and a co-host of the DFO Podcast since 2015.

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