Home gauntlet has proven Leafs are far from Stanley Cup contention – and maybe even the playoffs

Nov 11, 2026, 11:00 EST

Utah Mammoth forward Nick Schmaltz (8) celebrates after scoring the game-winning goal against Toronto Maple Leafs Sergei Bobrovsky (72) in the third period at Scotiabank Arena.

Credit: Mandatory Credit: Dan Hamilton-Imagn Images

It’s hard to believe that after all the offseason changes, the Toronto Maple Leafs find themselves in a similar position as last year’s.

Through 20 games last season, the Leafs were second to last in the Eastern Conference with an 9-9-2 record, two points out of a playoff spot. This season, the Leafs are in slightly better standing (only fifth-worst in the Eastern Conference), but they are four points out of a playoff spot with a slightly worse 8-10-2 record.

Even under the hood, things look similarly bleak. Last year, the Leafs had a 2.5 5v5 expected goals for per 60 minutes (24th in the league) and a 2.76 5v5 expected goals against per 60 minutes (21st), resulting in a 47.61% 5v5 expected goal share overall (23rd). This season? A 2.25 5v5 xGF/60 (27th) and a 2.65 5v5 xGA/60 (tied for 19th) for a 45.97% 5v5 xGF% (26th).

In a way, both results are disappointing. Last season, the team was coming off a 2024-25 campaign that saw them win the Atlantic Division and get as close as they’ve ever been to a Stanley Cup in the Auston Matthews era: Game 7 of the second round. The slow start began a season which fell well below expectations, even if it was a regression from an unsustainable year prior.

While this year’s team wasn’t dealing with the same high expectations, all last season’s excuses were also gone. A massive void in star talent with Mitch Marner gone? Drafting Gavin McKenna and trading for Kirill Marchenko should have plugged that hole. The bottom-six forwards were neither generating chances nor preventing them? The group got a massive overhaul with a focus on defense and energy. The blueline needed more puck movers? Toronto added Darren Raddysh and Nick Blankenberg. Craig Berube was stifling the offense and not compensating defensively? He’s gone. Brad Treliving was simultaneously doing nothing while draining the Leafs of future assets? He’s gone. The goaltending was shaky? An experienced Sergei Bobrovsky is in the fold.

Perhaps expecting the Leafs to return to Cup-contention status after only one summer under John Chayka would be misguided, but it was easy to see a world where the improvements they made could have at least put them on a path toward a playoff spot. And yet, the defense looks another step behind the play compared to last season, the goaltending is more inconsistent, and as good as the offense has been (especially with Matthews returning to an elite level), one injury to their top six kills all momentum.

All that has led to a Leafs team which, on most nights, feels inferior to the competition and can barely put in a consistent effort every game – something the team even recognizes.

“We just need to do it for a full 60,” defenseman Darren Raddysh said after Tuesday’s 6-3 loss to the Colorado Avalanche. “We need to stick to it and not get away from that.”

“We’ve got to have a full 60,” winger Easton Cowan said. “That’s what good teams do. You just got to keep sticking together. It’s adversity. We’ve got to get through it.

Nothing has exposed those problems more than their current six-game homestand. While home ice is usually an advantage, that hasn’t been the case in early November, as the Leafs are dealing with a slate of elite competition: the Utah Mammoth, Montreal Canadiens, New Jersey Devils, Colorado Avalanche, Minnesota Wild and Edmonton Oilers.

Based on the standings right now, that means the Leafs are up against the teams in second, third, fifth, seventh, ninth and 15th (and that 15th-placed Mammoth team is no slouch either). Three of these teams (Devils, Mammoth, Wild) rank in the top 10 in 5v5 xGF/60 and 5v5 xGA/60 (a trend I’ve previously identified as one which produces Cup contenders), while the Avalanche rank just outside the top 10 in 5v5 xGA/60. Oh, and one of the other two teams has Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl and Evan Bouchard.

On one hand, you can look at this stretch as an easy excuse. A poor run through the homestand could be chalked up to the tough competition. But for a team looking to progress toward playoff and Stanley Cup contention, a six-game stretch against potential Cup contenders could be the measuring stick they need.

Now four games through this six-game gauntlet, the Leafs have their measuring stick. They’ve lost all four games and have been outscored 17-7 in the process, trailing by at least three goals on at least one occasion in three of the four games. They’ve also lost the 5v5 score-adjusted expected goals battle by a margin of 9.19-7.06 for a 43.45% share.

“Nobody wants to be in a losing streak,” said goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky. “But it is what it is. We’re all professionals, we’re all grown men. And yeah, it’s all on us. We have to find a way and chip away one at a time.”

“You don’t ever want to lose one, so when they stack, you start to lose your feel of winning,” said right winger Jack Roslovic. “But that’s the beauty of why we play this game. [We can solve the problem] by work ethic and determination.”

Translation: The Leafs can’t keep up with the league’s top teams, which probably means they aren’t a Stanley Cup contender. If there’s any consolation, this has come amidst key injuries: Marchenko has missed the last six games with a lower-body injury and is still weeks away from returning, and Morgan Rielly (who for all his flaws is one of the few net-positive defenders on the Leafs right now) has missed half the homestand thus far with a lower-body injury. Still, only a couple injuries shouldn’t significantly set back the on-ice product.

So if we know the Leafs aren’t contending for the Stanley Cup already, the next question is whether they even have enough juice to make the postseason. They’re already four points out of a playoff spot, and if the remaining two home games against Minnesota and Edmonton go as expected (along with the results of the other Atlantic Division teams in the playoff hunt), they could enter next Tuesday’s game against the Chicago Blackhawks already eight (or more) points out of a playoff spot.

But for now, the Leafs are just focused on righting the ship while it’s still afloat.

“You don’t want to be in [a losing streak], but it is what it is,” Bobrovsky said. “So again, one shot. I’m focused on the moment, on the things that I can control, and I try to give the best chance [for the] team to win.”

“You work your way out,” head coach Jim Hiller said. “There’s only one way. You can’t hope. You can’t be average. You gotta work your way out. Every guy.”

And it has to come from within, because it’s hard to see a world where they can get the help elsewhere. They’ve already changed the head coach. They’ve already spent their top trade asset in Matthew Knies. Blankenberg is the only pending unrestricted free agent on the roster. They also have little flexibility to improve the team beyond this season, as commitments to almost every player on the roster to next season mean the Leafs have no tagging room.

So if there’s going to be improvement, it has to come from the players currently on the roster.

All advanced stats courtesy of Evolving Hockey.

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